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Lester tries to lead Red Sox to another win Tuesday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 5/27/2014  at  4:30:00 AM
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BOSTON RED SOX (21-29)

at ATLANTA BRAVES (28-22)

First pitch: Tuesday, 7:10 p.m. ET
Line: Boston -110, Atlanta +100, Total: 7

After finally breaking their 10-game losing streak on Monday, the Red Sox will look to continue winning on Tuesday in the second and final game of their series with the Braves in Turner Field.

It has been a tough go of things for Boston lately as its win on Monday afternoon put a halt to an embarrassing 10-game skid. Over that timeframe, its offense had been terrible, scoring just 2.6 runs per game. It looked like the Sox were on their way to an 11th straight loss on Monday as well, since Atlanta took an early 6-1 lead, but Boston battled back and tied the game up with a five-run fifth inning capped off by a big three-run shot off the bat of David Ortiz. Their relief pitchers held the Braves at bay from that point on and the Red Sox finished off the game as 8-6 victors. The home run by Ortiz was his first extra-base hit since May 14, and he was just 4-for-34 (.117) during the Boston losing streak. Atlanta has been playing great over the past 10 games, going 7-3 while winning each of its past two series against teams with winning records (Milwaukee and Colorado). The Braves shut down the usually potent Rockies offense in their last set, outscoring them 11-5 while winning 2-of-3 games. OF Justin Upton (.299 BA) was 2-for-4 with two doubles and 3 RBI in Monday’s loss, and has been hot over the past 10 games, going 13-for-35 (.371) with five doubles, four homers, 14 RBI and seven runs. For this game, the Red Sox will call on their ace, LHP Jon Lester (4-6, 3.36 ERA), to help win a second consecutive contest. Going up against him for Atlanta will be RHP Aaron Harang (4-4, 3.32 ERA) who has been one of the bigger surprises this season. Boston has actually not been terrible as a road team, putting together an 11-12 record in away games, while the Braves have been an impressive 18-11 at Turner Field so far this year. These two clubs seldom meet, as the Sox now hold a 3-1 record in this series over the past three seasons and have plated 8+ runs in three of the four games. A trend going in Boston's favor is that the club is 14-3 in games where Jon Lester is pitching and the total is seven or less in his career. But the club is also a paltry 11-24 when the total is between 7 and 8.5 this season. The Red Sox have had to deal with plenty of injuries and 1B Mike Napoli (finger), OF Shane Victorino (hamstring) and 3B Will Middlebrooks (finger) are all currently on the 15-day DL.

Jon Lester has been one of the more reliable starters in baseball since 2008 and he has started between 31 and 33 games each of those seasons while posting an ERA of 3.75 or better in five of the six years. In 2014, he is striking out a career-high 10.2 batters per nine innings while having a career-low walk rate (2.4 BB/9). His last start Thursday versus the Blue Jays did leave a bad taste in his mouth though, as he gave up seven runs on 10 hits (2 HR) and two walks with just three strikeouts in 6.1 innings. Lester has faced the Braves just twice in his career, and he has a 1-1 record with a 2.77 ERA and 1.46 WHIP, while allowing 10 hits and three runs over seven innings in his last outing against them on June 22, 2012. OF B.J. Upton faced Lester plenty when he was a member of the Rays, and has gone 11-for-55 (.200) in the matchup with two home runs, 4 RBI and 12 strikeouts. His brother, OF Justin Upton, has faced Lester just twice, going 1-for-2 with a two-run homer. Boston’s bullpen has been great this year, going 7-10 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, while being successful in 12-of-15 (80%) save chances. Closer Koji Uehara (0.92 ERA, 10 saves) has been borderline unhittable this year while producing 29 K's and three walks in just 19.2 frames.

Aaron Harang’s start to this season was unbelievable, as he allowed just three runs over his first five outings (31.2 IP). He had one big blow-up game where he allowed 10 hits and nine runs against the Marlins on April 30, but has bounced back to being a solid option in the Braves rotation, giving up 13 runs (10 ER) over 23.1 innings (3.86 ERA) in four May starts. Harang is striking batters out at a career-high rate this year (9.7 K/9) and has allowed just two home runs in his first 59.2 innings of work. In his career against the Red Sox, Harang is 2-2 with a 5.64 ERA and 1.52 WHIP, and had a horrible outing against them last season where he went five innings and allowed seven runs on eight hits. Backup C David Ross is 4-for-12 against Harang in his career with three homers and 5 RBI while DH David Ortiz (5-for-9, 3 doubles, 1 HR, 6 RBI) and OF Grady Sizemore (9-for-22, 3 doubles, 6 K’s) have also had plenty of quality at-bats against the veteran. Others have not has quite as much success with C A.J. Pierzynski going 2-for-10 with two strikeouts and 2B Dustin Pedroia going hitless in five at-bats in the matchup. Atlanta’s relievers have been spectacular this season, going 11-4 with a 2.74 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 10.3 K/9, and are 16-for-20 (80%) in save opportunities. Craig Kimbrel (1.96 ERA, 13 saves) is one of the best closers in baseball while striking out 36 batters in just 18.1 frames (17.7 K/9) and has yet to allow a home run this year.


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