StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

Red Sox look to sweep Braves again Thursday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 5/29/2014  at  4:35:00 AM
  Print This Article    

ATLANTA BRAVES (28-24)

at BOSTON RED SOX (23-29)

First pitch: Thursday, 7:10 p.m. ET
Line: Boston -110, Atlanta +100, Total: 8

The Red Sox look to complete a home-and-home, four-game sweep against the NL East leading Braves on Thursday night.

Atlanta was looking good before it ran into what looked like a depleted Boston team, winning six of its previous eight games before taking losses in each of the past three contests against the Red Sox. The Braves have been outscored 18-9 over the losses, including a 4-0 blanking Wednesday. Their offense was actually able to scrape together nine hits in the loss, but was 0-for-6 with runners in scoring position and struck out 11 times. Even with the team struggling in this series, OF Justin Upton (.309 BA) has been able to continue his hot season and is 9-for-21 (.429 BA) with four doubles, a homer and 7 RBI over a current six-game hitting streak. Boston was riding a historically poor 10-game losing streak before going against Atlanta, and has been able to dominate the division-leading club. John Lackey looked great in 6.1 scoreless innings on Wednesday, striking out nine batters with zero walks while getting a big game from 21-year-old SS Xander Bogaerts (.287 BA) who went 3-for-4 with a double and a run in the contest. Bogaerts has been incredible over the past 10 games, going 15-for-40 (.375) with four doubles, a homer, 4 RBI and seven runs. Looking to help the Braves get one win out of these four games with a solid start will be LHP Mike Minor (2-3, 3.90 ERA). He goes up against veteran 32-year-old RHP Jake Peavy (1-2, 4.65 ERA) of the Red Sox who has not won a game in his past five starts. Atlanta has not enjoyed playing on the road, as evidenced by its 10-12 record in away games this year, while Boston is just 11-17 at Fenway Park. With Wednesday’s victory over the Braves, the Sox have pushed their record against them over the past three years to 5-1 while scoring six runs per game in that time. Atlanta could have a better chance at a win on Thursday due to the fact that Boston is just 13-24 (.351) when the total is between 7 and 8.5 this season. On the other hand, the Braves are just 6-17 (.261) in road games versus a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better over the past three seasons. SS Andrelton Simmons (ankle) was not in the starting lineup for Wednesday’s contest and is considered day-to-day for Atlanta, while 1B Mike Napoli (finger), OF Shane Victorino (hamstring) and 3B Will Middlebrooks (finger) continue to ride the DL for the Red Sox.

Mike Minor has given a boost to the Braves’ rotation since his return from injury by allowing three or fewer runs in four of his first five starts. His main problem has been giving up home runs and he has seen six balls leave the park in his first 30 innings on the mound. Minor has strung together three consecutive quality starts coming into this one, averaging 6.2 innings per start while getting 17 strikeouts and seven walks, while allowing five runs over 19.2 frames. His one career outing against the Red Sox came back in 2012, and it was not pretty, as he lasted just 4.2 innings while being pounded for seven runs (4 ER) on six hits (3 HR) and three walks with four strikeouts. With just his one start against Boston, he has not faced their offensive players often, but will need to be careful when going against DH David Ortiz (.270 BA, 12 HR) and 2B Dustin Pedroia (.276 BA) who lead the team with 20 extra-base hits apiece. Meanwhile, OF Jackie Bradley Jr. (.209 BA) is struggling, and has struck out in 30% of his at-bats, including going down swinging 12 times in his past 10 games. Atlanta’s bullpen has been tremendous, going 11-5 with a 3.01 ERA and saving 16-of-21 (76%) games. Closer Craig Kimbrel (1.96 ERA, 13 saves) has an incredible 36 strikeouts in just 18.1 innings of work and is 13-for-15 in his save opportunities.

Jake Peavy has not been pitching well lately, allowing 16 runs over his past three starts (16.1 IP) while surprisingly just going 0-1 (0-3 team record) in that time. His last start came against Tampa Bay Saturday as he went six innings, giving up five runs on eight hits and one walk with five strikeouts. Peavy has struggled with control, and is walking batters at a career-high rate of 4.2 BB/9 while actually giving away only three free passes in his past three games. He has had success against the Braves over eight career starts though, going 3-4 (3-5 team record) with a 3.86 ERA (1.05 WHIP), as he has earned a win each of the past two times facing them. He’s pitched at least six innings in seven of the eight starts, but has given up far too many homers with 11 leaving the yard over 51.1 frames. C Ryan Doumit and 2B Dan Uggla have had the most experience against the veteran, but have combined to go just 6-for-29 (.207) with 11 strikeouts in the matchup. OF Justin Upton has done great against him though, going 6-for-9 with a triple, homer and 5 RBI. While the Braves’ bullpen has been good, Boston’s has been even better, going 7-10 with a 2.84 ERA while converting 81% of its saves (13-of-16). Koji Uehara (0.87 ERA, 11 saves) has an incredible 31:3 K/BB ratio this year with his only two runs allowed coming off of a pair of solo homers.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: