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Johnson favored to win at Monster Mile
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 6/1/2014  at  5:08:00 AM
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NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
FedEx 400 Benefiting Autism Speaks

Sunday, June 1 1:00 p.m. EDT
Dover International Speedway Dover, DE

NASCAR remains on the East Coast this Sunday when the drivers try their luck in Dover, DE for the FedEx 400 Benefiting Autism Speaks. Dover International Speedway, nicknamed the "Monster Mile" is a 1-mile, intermediate concrete track completed in 1969 in an oval shape. Each turn has the same "monster" 24 banking and straightaways consist of 9 banking. Both the frontstretch and backstretch measure 1,076 feet (0.204 miles). Jimmie Johnson has won eight of his 24 races at Dover, including last fall, while Tony Stewart won last year's FedEx 400.

Odds to Win Race

Jimmie Johnson9-to-2
Kevin Harvick5-to-1
Kyle Busch7-to-1
Matt Kenseth8-to-1
Brad Keselowski8-to-1
Jeff Gordon8-to-1
Joey Logano10-to-1
Carl Edwards15-to-1
Kasey Kahne15-to-1
Dale Earnhardt Jr.15-to-1
Clint Bowyer20-to-1
Denny Hamlin20-to-1
Kyle Larson25-to-1
Tony Stewart30-to-1
Kurt Busch30-to-1
Greg Biffle30-to-1
Brian Vickers40-to-1
Ryan Newman50-to-1
Martin Truex Jr.60-to-1
Jamie McMurray60-to-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.100-to-1
Aric Almirola100-to-1
Paul Menard100-to-1
Austin Dillon100-to-1
Marcos Ambrose200-to-1
A.J. Allmendinger300-to-1
Casey Mears300-to-1
Justin Allgaier300-to-1
Danica Patrick300-to-1
FIELD (Any other driver)100-to-1

Drivers to Watch

Jimmie Johnson (9/2) - Not only has Johnson won eight times at this track since 2002, but his average finish is an unbelievable 6.6 since 2005, spanning 18 races. In his past 10 starts at Dover, he has earned three poles, five wins, a runner-up, a 4th and a 9th-place showing. This season, he's finished in the top-6 in half of his 12 races, including last week's win at Charlotte. The odds are very low for No. 48, but Johnson is clearly the favorite, and we expect him to pick up his ninth career Dover win on Sunday.

Martin Truex Jr. (60/1) - Truex has certainly had some shining moments at Dover, as he has started third or better in five of his past eight starts at this track, a stretch which includes two pole positions. More importantly, Truex has also finished in the top-8 in three of his past six starts at the "Monster Mile" and actually led a couple of laps in last spring's FedEx 400 before engine failure ended his race. Truex is in desperate need of his first single-digit finish this season, and with odds four times more favorable than his 15-to-1 price at last year's FedEx 400, this perceived longshot is certainly the best value pick on the board for Sunday's race.

Brad Keselowski (8/1) - He won the Dover race in the fall of 2012, and also finished fifth in last year's FedEx 400. Keselowski's average finish at this track is a pedestrian 16.0 in eight starts, but he has not enjoyed really strong starting positions either (14.4 average). Keselowski is also racing much better over the past two weeks, leading at Kansas for 13 laps, and then leading for 43 laps last week in Charlotte where he placed 10th to jump back into the top-10 in the points standings. The single-digit odds aren't too favorable, but Keselowski is still worthy of a small wager on Sunday.

Greg Biffle (30/1) - Another great value pick on Sunday is Biffle, who was tabbed with much less favorable 15-to-1 odds at this track last spring. Among active drivers at "The Monster Mile," Biffle ranks fourth in terms of average finish (12.3), which includes a pair of victories in 2005 and 2008. He has also made great strides this season, climbing up the standings from 18th after his sixth race to his current 11th place, thanks to three top-six finishes in his past six starts. At 30-to-1, drop a one-unit wager on this darkhorse.

Clint Bowyer (20/1) - The price is also right for Bowyer, who was a much more chalky 12-to-1 in last year's FedEx 400. Despite having only one top-5 (5th in 2012) in 16 career starts at Dover, his 12.6 average career finish at this track ranks fifth among active drivers due to remarkable consistency. In his past six races at "The Monster Mile" Bowyer has placed 6th, 8th, 5th, 9th, 6th and 10th, despite starting 15th or worse in four of these races. With three top-10's this season, Bowyer should also be worthy of a one-unit wager for Sunday.

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