MIAMI HEAT (67-34)
at SAN ANTONIO SPURS (77-27)
Game 5 – San Antonio leads series 3-1
Tip-off: Sunday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: San Antonio -6, Total: 195
The NBA Finals head back to Texas on Sunday as the Spurs look to close out the series in five games and get a revenge victory over the Heat after last year’s upsetting loss.
Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook breakdown on Game 5:
This series has been absolutely dominated by San Antonio, which is coming off yet another big win in Game 4. The club breezed to victory by a score of 107-86 as five-point underdogs in Miami while shooting an incredible 57% from the field; marking the third time in this series that the team has shot that well. As usual, the Spurs were getting great shots with tremendous ball movement, finishing with 25 assists in the game while absolutely dominating the boards as they outrebounded the Heat 44-27. Miami has actually had a few great shooting performances of their own in this series, hitting better than 51% of its field goals in both Games 2 & 3, but has just seemed outmatched, as LeBron James is the only player on the team with consistent numbers throughout the NBA Finals. Going back on the road does not bode well for the Heat either as they are just 27-23 SU (24-24 ATS) in away games over the entire season. Meanwhile, San Antonio probably feels like it has a lock on this series since the club is an incredible 42-11 SU (28-25 ATS) when playing at home while going 10-2 SU (8-4 ATS) there in the playoffs. These two clubs have obviously had a storied matchup over the past few seasons against each other and Miami holds a slight 9-7 SU (7-9 ATS) edge when facing the Spurs over the past three seasons. In that time, San Antonio is 4-3 (SU and ATS) in its home games. Some trends that bettors may want to take notice of is that the Heat are 9-0 ATS in road games after a game with 35 or fewer rebounds over the past two seasons while the Spurs are 22-10 ATS (69%) in the past two seasons after a game where they made at least 55% FG. Fatigue will likely be the only type of concern that needs to be watched in this contest, as neither side is nursing any significant injuries for this important game.
The Heat have seen their scoring output drop in the playoffs (97.8 PPG) while they have put up just 92.8 PPG in the NBA Finals through four games. Their defense has also been much worse in this series as they are allowing the Spurs to drop 106.0 PPG on them, which is much greater than the 95.1 PPG (48% FG) allowed over the entire postseason. SF LeBron James (27.5 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 3.8 APG, 2.5 SPG in series) scored a team-high 28 points in Thursday’s loss while failing to record a steal for the first time in six games. He has made 60% of his shots in the NBA Finals while also hitting an incredible 11-of-18 threes. SG Dwyane Wade (16.3 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 3.0 APG, 2.0 SPG in series) played very poorly in Game 4, shooting just 3-for-13 from the field with 10 points while adding four assists and four steals. The game was his worst shooting performance of the postseason, and he has also really struggled with ball security in this series as he has turned it over 3.8 times per game. C Chris Bosh (14.3 PPG, 4.8 RPG in finals) averaged 18.0 PPG in the two games on the road in this series but netted just 10.5 PPG in the two home contests while grabbing just seven total rebounds. He has also been non-existent on the defense side of the ball with just one block in the series after averaging 1.3 BPG in the playoff games before the finals. SG Ray Allen (11.0 PPG in series) has made 8-of-19 (42%) threes in this series but has scored double-digit points just twice.
The Spurs have been on an absolute tear through these playoffs, hitting 49% of their shots while averaging 106.5 PPG. Their defense has been great as well, giving up just 97.5 PPG (45% FG) to their opponents. PF Tim Duncan (15.8 PPG, 10.5 RPG in series) had 10 points and 11 boards in Thursday’s victory and now has three double-doubles in the first four games of the NBA Finals. He was tremendous in the first two contests of this series when playing at home, averaging 19.5 PPG and 12.5 RPG. PG Tony Parker (18.5 PPG, 5.3 APG, 1.0 SPG in finals) had 19 points on 8-of-15 shooting in Game 4 while recording a series-low two assists. He’s been amazingly consistent over these four games and has actually shot 8-for-15 from the field in three games against the Heat so far while making just 13-of-18 from the charity stripe in the series. SF Kawhi Leonard (16.8 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.8 SPG, 1.3 SPG in finals) was the difference maker in the two games at Miami, leading the team in scoring in both wins while averaging 24.5 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 2.5 BPG and 2.5 SPG. He has done well shooting from all areas of the floor, making 23-of-39 (59%) shots overall and 8-of-15 from behind the arc. SG Manu Ginobili (13.3 PPG, 4.5 APG, 1.3 SPG in finals) had only seven points in Thursday’s victory, but was great in the two games at home (17.5 PPG, 7.5 APG) to start this series.