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Cards look to stay hot Wednesday vs. Pirates
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 7/9/2014  at  3:51:00 AM
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PITTSBURGH PIRATES (47-43)

at ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (49-42)

First pitch: Wednesday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Line: St. Louis -130, Pittsburgh +120, Total: 8

The Cardinals look to win their third straight game of this four-game series against the Pirates on Wednesday night.

After a slow start to the season, Pittsburgh has come around to win eight of its past 12 games and sits just 4.5 games behind the Brewers in a crowded NL Central division. St. Louis has put a stop to much of this momentum over the first two games of this series though, as the Pirates have scored just four runs over the two defeats while suffering a tough walk-off loss for a second straight night in Tuesday's 5-4 loss. They got two-run homers from both Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez while seeing newly-acquired reliever Ernesto Frieri allow the game winning homer, his sixth run given up since joining the team (3 IP). McCutchen has been his usual MVP self over the past 10 games, going 14-for-40 (.350) with three doubles, two triples, two home runs, 8 RBI and seven runs in that time. The Cardinals are also playing catch-up in the NL Central and enter Wednesday having won five of their past seven contests. Pitching has been their key to success, as they have allowed just 1.6 runs per game over the five victories. They have taken the first two games of this series despite going just 2-for-8 with runners in scoring position, and had only three hits in Monday’s game; including a walk-off homer by Matt Adams. Kolten Wong provided the clutch homer in Tuesday’s win and also added a double and three of the team’s 5 RBI while having two of his three long-balls coming in the past three games. The pitching matchup in this contest will peg Pittsburgh RHP Brandon Cumpton (3-2, 4.61 ERA) against St. Louis RHP Lance Lynn (9-6, 3.17 ERA). Playing on the road has been tough for the Pirates, as they have posted an 18-23 record in away games, while the Cards are a solid 26-19 at Busch Stadium. With Tuesday’s win, St. Louis pushed its record against Pittsburgh to 6-5 this season while evening the head-to-head record (25-25) against the Bucs over the past three seasons. The Redbirds have been solid at home in that time, though, going 16-10. Some trends that bettors should take note of include that Pittsburgh is 33-23 (.589) in night games this season while St. Louis is 49-24 (.671) when Lance Lynn is starting and the total is 7 to 8.5 runs over the past three seasons. In injury news, the Pirates have SS Clint Barmes (groin) on the 15-day DL, while the Cardinals have no significant injuries to their offensive players.

Brandon Cumpton’s numbers have been inflated this year by one start where he allowed 11 runs (10 ER) in just 3.2 innings of work back in the end of May. But he has given up three runs or fewer in seven of his other eight starts; including each of his past five. In fact, if that one poor start is removed from his stat line, he has a 3.12 ERA over his other eight outings. Cumpton is by no means a strikeout pitcher with 5.5 K/9, but he has great control (2.1 BB/9) and has surrendered just one home run in 52.2 frames (0.17 HR/9) on the season while being on the losing end of batters hitting .320 BABIP against him. His last outing was excellent, as he allowed only two runs on six hits and one walk over seven innings against the Mets with four strikeouts in a no-decision. Cumpton has faced the Cardinals just once, and he was tremendous in that July 30, 2013 start when he tossed seven scoreless frames and gave up only three hits and one walk while striking out five batters. The only players on St. Louis’ current roster with a hit against him are OFs Matt Holliday (1-for-3) and Jon Jay (1-for-3) while the rest of the players that have faced him are 0-for-16 with two strikeouts. The Pirates’ bullpen has gone 20-12 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, and are 27-for-40 (68%) in save situations. Closer Mark Melancon (2.43 ERA, 16 saves) is 16-for-19 is his save chances this year while benefiting from batters hitting .252 BABIP against him.

Lance Lynn, another polished pitching product from the Cardinals’ farm system, looks well on his way to having a third straight season with at least 15 wins and a sub-4.00 ERA. He has seen his strikeout-rate drop over the past three seasons, but the rate is not low by any means, as he is mowing down 8.1 batters per nine innings on the year. Lynn has also done a great job at keeping the ball in the park, allowing only six homers in 106 innings (0.50 HR/9) on the mound. Lynn had his third scoreless start in his past five outings as he tossed 6.2 shutout innings against the Marlins on the Fourth of July while allowing just five hits and three walks while striking out six. In his career against Pittsburgh, he has gone 4-4 (6-5 team record), but carries a dismal 5.64 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. The right-hander has lost each of his past three starts against the Pirates, including his one this year on May 10 when he gave up four runs on nine hits and two walks, but also five strikeouts. OF Starling Marte has been great against the righty, going 6-for-15 with three extra-base hits, while 3B Pedro Alvarez is just 6-for-24 (.250) in the matchup but does have a homer and 7 RBI. OF Andrew McCutchen has actually been baffled by the 27-year old as he is just 4-for-26 (.154) with two doubles and 10 strikeouts against him. The Cardinals’ relievers have combined to go 11-13 with a strong 3.50 ERA and 1.19 WHIP while going 29-for-40 (73%) in save opportunities. Trevor Rosenthal (3.67 ERA, 26 saves) has blown four saves this year while striking out 53 batters in 41.2 frames (11.5 K.9) and dealing with some control issues (5.4 BB/9).


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