StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

2014 College Football Preview: Big Ten
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 8/13/2014  at  5:21:00 AM
  Print This Article    

To get you prepared for the upcoming college football season, we continue our run of all FBS conference previews over the next several weeks. For complete coverage, download your copy of the 2014 StatFox Edge Football Preview. Next up is the Big Ten, which added Maryland and Rutgers to form a 14-school conference this season. Penn State is still ineligible for the postseason.

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook breakdown of odds for the first week of the college football season:

Odds to Win Big Ten

(For the latest Odds, connect to Sportsbook.ag)
7-to-5: Ohio State
3-to-1: Wisconsin
3-to-1: Michigan State
10-to-1: Iowa
12-to-1: Northwestern
15-to-1: Michigan
15-to-1: Nebraska
45-to-1: Maryland
65-to-1: Indiana
65-to-1: Minnesota
100-to-1: Illinois
500-to-1: Purdue
500-to-1: Rutgers

OHIO STATE BUCKEYES


2013 Statistics:
SU Record: 12-2 (8-1 in Big Ten)
ATS Record: 6-7-1 (46%)
Over/Under: 10-4
Points Scored: 45.5 PPG (3rd in FBS)
Points Allowed: 22.6 PPG (28th in FBS)
Odds to Win 2015 BCS National Championship: 40/1

2014 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 5
Defense: Starters Returning: 7
The Buckeyes have 24 straight regular-season wins, and expected to bring back Heisman hopeful QB Braxton Miller (2,094 pass yds, 24 TD, 7 INT; 1,068 rush yds, 12 TD), but he suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in preseason practice. That leaves redshirt freshman J.T. Barrett as the team's starting signal caller, and he’ll run an offense that averaged 45.5 PPG (3rd in FBS) and 512 total YPG (8th in FBS) in 2013. Barrett has a quick receiving corps to work with, led by WR Devin Smith (660 rec yds, 8 TD). Carlos Hyde is gone, but RBs Ezekiel Elliott (8.7 YPC) and Dontre Wilson (8.1 YPC) are both explosive. OSU’s D-Line is outstanding with three returnees tallying at least seven sacks last year (Noah Spence, Joey Bosa and Michael Bennett). The linebackers are strong and CB Doran Grant (10 PD, 3 INT) has All-American potential.

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook 2014 season preview for Ohio State:

WISCONSIN BADGERS


2013 Statistics:
SU Record: 9-4 (6-2 in Big Ten)
ATS Record: 9-3-1 (75%)
Over/Under: 5-8
Points Scored: 34.8 PPG (27th in FBS)
Points Allowed: 16.3 PPG (6th in FBS)
Odds to Win 2015 BCS National Championship: 35/1

2014 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 5
Defense: Starters Returning: 3
The Badgers have many new faces, but returning RB Melvin Gordon (1,609 rush yds, 7.8 YPC, 12 TD) could be the FBS top rusher. His running behind a fierce O-Line will take pressure off QB Joel Stave (7.4 YPA, 22 TD, 13 INT) or dual-threat QB Tanner McEvoy. Whoever wins the job will not have an experienced receiver to target. All front-seven starters are gone, including All- American LB Chris Borland, whose spot will be filled by LB Derek Landisch (33 tackles). Freshman DE Alec James is the team’s best pass rusher. The secondary returns three starters, the best being CB Sojourn Shelton (4 INT).

MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS


2013 Statistics:
SU Record: 13-1 (9-0 in Big Ten)
ATS Record: 9-4-1 (69%)
Over/Under: 6-8
Points Scored: 29.4 PPG (64th in FBS)
Points Allowed: 13.2 PPG (3rd in FBS)
Odds to Win 2015 BCS National Championship: 35/1

2014 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 7
Defense: Starters Returning: 5
The Spartans are expected to take a step back after losing so many key players from their 13-win season in 2013, but they still have enough left to challenge for the conference title. Junior QB Connor Cook (7.3 YPA, 22 TD, 6 INT) is coming off a great season, and big things are expected for his future. WRs Tony Lippett (613 rec yds) and Macgarrett Kings Jr. (513 rec yds) do a nice job of getting open, and RB Jeremy Langford (1,422 rush yds, 18 TD) is an excellent runner who may get more action in the passing game. This top-notch defense lost six starters, but is packed with playmakers such as DEs Shilique Calhoun (7.5 sacks, 14 TFL) and Marcus Rush (5 sacks) up front, and S Kurtis Drummond (91 tackles, 4 INT) and CB Trae Waynes (3 INT) in back. The big question is whether the young linebackers will emerge.

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook 2014 season preview for Michigan State:

IOWA HAWKEYES


2013 Statistics:
SU Record: 8-5 (5-3 in Big Ten)
ATS Record: 8-5 (62%)
Over/Under: 7-5-1
Points Scored: 26.3 PPG (T-80th in FBS)
Points Allowed: 18.9 PPG (9th in FBS)
Odds to Win 2015 BCS National Championship: 100/1

2014 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 6
Defense: Starters Returning: 5
This program got back on track last season with eight wins, and now the Hawkeyes look to reach double-digit victories with their four best offensive players returning in RB Mark Weisman (974 rush yds, 8 TD), QB Jake Rudock (6.9 YPA, 18 TD, 13 INT), NFL-ready LT Brandon Scherff and WR Kevonte Martin-Manley (388 rec yds, 5 TD). The 236-pound Weisman is perfect for Kirk Ferentz’s power running scheme, while Rudock threw multiple TD passes seven times as a sophomore. Iowa lost All-Conference CB B.J. Lowery and all three starting linebackers, but the cupboard isn’t entirely bare on defense with CB Desmond King (69 tackles, 8 PD) and SS John Lowdermilk (78 tackles) starring in the secondary, and 290-pound DT Louis Trinca-Pasat (9 TFL) and 315-pound DT Carl Davis (4 TFL) clogging up the middle.

NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS


2013 Statistics:
SU Record: 5-7 (1-7 in Big Ten)
ATS Record: 3-9 (25%)
Over/Under: 4-8
Points Scored: 26.2 PPG (83rd in FBS)
Points Allowed: 27.1 PPG (69th in FBS)
Odds to Win 2015 BCS National Championship: 200/1

2014 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 9
Defense: Starters Returning: 7
After a 4-0 start in 2013, Northwestern lost seven straight before its lone Big Ten win over Illinois. The offense could throw more with QB Trevor Siemian (7.2 YPA, 11 TD, 9 INT) under center with returning WRs Christian Jones (668 rec yds) and Tony Jones (630 rec yds). RB Venric Mark (1,366 rush yds, 12 TD in 2012) is back healthy, but his O-Line is green. S Ibraheim Campbell (74 tackles, 4 INT) leads this opportunistic defense, but LBs Chi Chi Ariguzo (106 tackles, 4 INT) and Collin Ellis (77 tackles, 3 INT, 2 TD) are always around the football. DE Ifeadi Odenigbo (5.5 sacks) is a pass rusher on the rise.

MICHIGAN WOLVERINES


2013 Statistics:
SU Record: 7-6 (3-5 in Big Ten)
ATS Record: 7-6 (54%)
Over/Under: 6-7
Points Scored: 32.2 PPG (46th in FBS)
Points Allowed: 26.8 PPG (67th in FBS)
Odds to Win 2015 BCS National Championship: 85/1

2014 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 7
Defense: Starters Returning: 8
New OC Doug Nussmeier left Alabama to hopefully provide a shot in the arm to a Wolverines offense whose O-Line was horrible last year, leading to a poor ground game (126 rush YPG, 3.3 YPC) and indecision by dual-threat QB Devin Gardner (8.6 YPA, 21 TD, 11 INT; 483 rush yds, 11 TD). The senior will have to adjust to his third different OC in his Michigan career without graduated top WR Jeremy Gallon. The ground game hopes the return of four starting O-Linemen can help, but the best rusher on the team is underwhelming RB Derrick Green (270 rush yds, 3.3 YPC). The defense is in much better shape with LB Jake Ryan (4.5 TFL in 8 games) returning from a knee injury to anchor a strong linebacking corps. Star CB Ray Taylor (86 tackles, 4 INT, 9 PD) and DE Frank Clark (5.5 sacks) are players on the rise.

NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS


2013 Statistics:
SU Record: 9-4 (5-3 in Big Ten)
ATS Record: 7-6 (54%)
Over/Under: 6-7
Points Scored: 31.9 PPG (48th in FBS)
Points Allowed: 24.8 PPG (T-50th in FBS)
Odds to Win 2015 BCS National Championship: 110/1

2014 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 10
Defense: Starters Returning: 5
The Cornhuskers are looking for more consistency after an up-and-down season with all four losses coming by double-digits. QB Tommy Armstrong (7.4 YPA, 9 TD, 8 INT) is expected to take a leap forward as a sophomore, especially with returning star WR Kenny Bell (577 rec yds, 4 TD). But the offense still revolves around electric RB Ameer Abdullah (6.0 YPC, 1,922 total yds, 11 TD). DE Randy Gregory (10 sacks in final 8 games) ignites the defense, while LB Trevor Roach is back from a foot injury. CB Josh Mitchell (6 PD) and S Corey Cooper (91 tackles) are the leaders of a solid secondary.

MARYLAND TERRAPINS


2013 Statistics:
SU Record: 7-6 (3-5 in ACC)
ATS Record: 7-6 (54%)
Over/Under: 8-5
Points Scored: 26.2 PPG (84th in FBS)
Points Allowed: 25.3 PPG (55th in FBS)
Odds to Win 2015 BCS National Championship: 100/1 (Field)

2014 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 8
Defense: Starters Returning: 9
Maryland is in pretty good shape offensively as it enters the Big Ten with dynamic senior QB C.J. Brown (2,242 pass yds, 13 TD, 7 INT; 576 rush yds, 12 TD) and a host of playmakers. Both of the team’s top wideouts, WRs Stefon Diggs (80 rec YPG, 9 TD career) and Deon Long (70 rec YPG) are back healthy from broken legs, and RB Wes Brown (382 rush yds in 2012) returns from a suspension to help out RB Brandon Ross (776 rush yds, 4 TD) in the backfield. The defense has a couple of key injury returnees in CB Jeremiah Johnson (8 PD in 2012) and LB Yannik Cudjoe-Virgil (3 sacks in 5 games), and will remain tough in the middle with ILBs Cole Farrand (84 tackles) and L.A. Goree (76 tackles). Team sack leader DE Andre Monroe (9.5 sacks, 17 TFL, 42 tackles) also returns to wreak havoc on opposing quarterbacks.

INDIANA HOOSIERS


2013 Statistics:
SU Record: 5-7 (3-5 in Big Ten)
ATS Record: 5-7 (42%)
Over/Under: 9-3
Points Scored: 38.4 PPG (16th in FBS)
Points Allowed: 38.8 PPG (116th in FBS)
Odds to Win 2015 BCS National Championship: 100/1 (Field)

2014 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 7
Defense: Starters Returning: 10
The Hoosiers scored 46.1 PPG at home last year, but managed less than half of that (23.0 PPG) outside of Bloomington. The June transfer of dual-threat QB Tre Roberson leaves the offense to pocket-passer QB Nate Sudfeld (7.8 YPA, 21 TD, 9 INT). The receiving corps lost a lot, but WR Shane Wynn (11 rec TD) and freshman WR Dominique Booth starred in the spring. RB Tevin Coleman (958 rush yds, 7.3 YPC, 12 TD) is fully healed from knee surgery and eager to run behind an experienced offensive line. New DC Brian Knorr will switch Indiana to the same 3-4 defensive scheme he ran at Wake Forest in effort to improve its dismal 38.8 PPG and 528 total YPG allowed. DE Nick Mangieri (3 sacks) must produce more QB pressure, but LB T.J. Simmons (68 tackles) and CB Tim Bennett (20 PD, 73 tackles) are special players.

MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS


2013 Statistics:
SU Record: 8-5 (4-4 in Big Ten)
ATS Record: 9-4 (69%)
Over/Under: 6-7
Points Scored: 25.7 PPG (85th in FBS)
Points Allowed: 22.2 PPG (25th in FBS)
Odds to Win 2015 BCS National Championship: 100/1 (Field)

2014 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 7
Defense: Starters Returning: 7
Despite eight wins, Minnesota scored only 25.7 PPG (18.8 PPG in Big Ten). With Philip Nelson gone, QB Mitch Leidner (7.9 YPA, 3 TD, 1 INT) takes over an offense lacking in quality wideouts, but 6-foot-4 TE Maxx Williams (417 rec yds, 5 TD) is a reliable target. The ground game is strong with a veteran O-Line creating holes for RB David Cobb (1,202 rush yds, 7 TD). This defense shined in 2013 (22.2 PPG, 25th in FBS), but lost both DT Ra’Shede Hageman and DB Brock Vereen. The Gophers do return DE Theiren Cockran (7.5 sacks), LB Damien Wilson (78 tackles) and a veteran secondary though.

ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI


2013 Statistics:
SU Record: 4-8 (1-7 in Big Ten)
ATS Record: 6-6 (50%)
Over/Under: 7-5
Points Scored: 29.7 PPG (61st in FBS)
Points Allowed: 35.4 PPG (T-105th in FBS)
Odds to Win 2015 BCS National Championship: 100/1 (Field)

2014 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 6
Defense: Starters Returning: 8
The Illini won only one Big Ten game last season and allowed 40.8 PPG to their conference foes, but things could get better in a hurry with Oklahoma State transfer QB Wes Lunt (8.5 YPA, 6 TD, 7 INT in 2012) running the offense this season. The strong-armed Lunt should get plenty of protection with an O-Line that returns four starters, but his receiving corps is weak, with WR Martize Barr (246 rec yds) as the top option. The ground game is in good shape though, with versatile RB Josh Ferguson (5.5 YPC, 50 rec, 1,314 total yards, 11 TD). The defense returns nearly everybody, but lost 33% of its paltry 15-sack total in Jonathan Brown. LB Mason Monheim (97 tackles) and converted safety OLB Earnest Thomas (101 tackles, 7 PD) are the keys to the defense along with CBs V’Angelo Bentley (4 TFL) and Eaton Spence (4 PD).

PURDUE BOILERMAKERS


2013 Statistics:
SU Record: 1-11 (0-8 in Big Ten)
ATS Record: 4-8 (33%)
Over/Under: 6-5-1
Points Scored: 14.9 PPG (121st in FBS)
Points Allowed: 38.0 PPG (113rd in FBS)
Odds to Win 2015 BCS National Championship: 100/1 (Field)

2014 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 8
Defense: Starters Returning: 5
In the 2013 calendar year, Purdue was 0-12 versus FBS schools, and was out- scored by 27.3 PPG. QB Danny Etling (6.3 YPA, 10 TD, 7 INT) had a strong true freshman season, but doesn’t have much to throw to besides improving sophomore WR DeAngelo Yancey (546 rec yds) and RB Akeem Hunt (340 rec yds). Hunt averaged only 3.8 YPC with one rushing TD last year. The defense allowed 38.0 PPG and 460 total YPG in 2013. DE Ryan Russell (2 sacks) needs to apply more QB pressure and the linebackers must tackle better. S Taylor Richards (64 tackles) and CB Frankie Williams (2 INT) stand out.

RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS


2013 Statistics:
SU Record: 6-7 (3-5 in American)
ATS Record: 5-7-1 (42%)
Over/Under: 5-8
Points Scored: 26.5 PPG (77th in FBS)
Points Allowed: 29.8 PPG (81st in FBS)
Odds to Win 2015 BCS National Championship: 100/1 (Field)

2014 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 9
Defense: Starters Returning: 7
New OC Ralph Friedgen has plenty to work with, but must choose either QB Gary Nova (7.1 YPA, 18 TD, 14 INT) or freshman QB Chris Laviano. TE Tyler Kroft (573 rec yds, 4 TD) and WR Leonto Carroo (478 rec yds, 9 TD) are the top targets. The ground game remains strong with RBs Paul James (881 rush yds, 9 TD) and Justin Goodwin (521 rush yds, 5 TD) running behind a completely intact O-Line. New DC Joe Rossi moved star LB Steve Longa (123 tackles, 3 sacks) from MLB to WLB to better use his speed. The D-Line is ordinary and the secondary is suspect other than S Lorenzo Waters (62 tackles).

PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS


2013 Statistics:
SU Record: 7-5 (4-4 in Big Ten)
ATS Record: 5-7 (42%)
Over/Under: 7-5
Points Scored: 28.7 PPG (69th in FBS)
Points Allowed: 26.2 PPG (59th in FBS)
Odds to Win 2015 BCS National Championship: Not eligible

2014 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 7
Defense: Starters Returning: 8
New Head Coach: James Franklin
PSU is not bowl eligible, but there is hope in Happy Valley with James Franklin taking over a program on the upswing. QB Christian Hackenberg (2,955 pass yds, 20 TD, 10 INT) had a huge freshman season and beefed up to better deal with the punishment he’ll take due to a weak O-Line. WR Geno Lewis (234 rec yds, 3 TD) is the top receiver, while RB Zach Zwinak (989 rush yds, 12 TD) leads a stacked backfield. On defense, the line has great depth, but other than stalwarts LB Mike Hull (78 tackles), CB Jordan Lucas (13 PD, 3 INT) and S Ryan Keiser (8 PD, 3 INT), there are some holes to fill.

All 2014 College Football Previews:

American Athletic Conference
Conference USA
MAC
Mountain West
Sun Belt
ACC
Big 12
Big Ten
Pac-12 - August 15
SEC - August 20
Independents - August 22

FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: