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NFL Season Preview: AFC West
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 8/14/2014  at  12:00:00 PM
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To get you prepared for the upcoming NFL season, we continue our run of all 32 team previews, rolling out two divisions per week throughout August. For complete coverage, download your copy of the 2014 StatFox Edge Football Preview. Up next is the AFC West, with the Denver Broncos tabbed as the heavy favorite to win the division again.

DENVER BRONCOS


2013 Statistics:
SU Record: 13-3
ATS Record: 10-5-1
Over/Under: 11-5
Points Scored: 37.9 PPG (1st in NFL)
Points Allowed: 24.9 PPG (22nd in NFL)

2014 Odds:
(For the latest Odds, connect to Sportsbook.com)
Odds to Win AFC West: 8/25
Odds to Win AFC Championship: 11/5
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLIX: 31/5
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 11.5

2014 Preview:
Offense:
Heading into 2013, the Broncos brought back Alex Gibbs as an offensive line coach to revitalize the zone-blocking scheme. The running game is obviously aided by the threat of Denver’s passing game and Peyton Manning’s ability to adjust at the line of scrim- mage, but the front five deserves huge credit for the ground game. A year ago, Denver used a committee approach, and they’ll always have to rotate to an extent due to the Broncos’ fast pace on offense and Denver’s thin air. But Montee Ball should have a big workload with most red-zone touches. C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman, if he stops fumbling, will battle for scraps behind him. Denver runs the ball often inside the red zone, mostly because opponents put extra defensive backs on the field down near the goal line. Ball will almost surely take the bulk of the red zone and goal-line carries.

This is a pick-your-poison, catch-and-run passing game. Their bread-and-butter is dinking and dunking, often underneath with Wes Welker and tight end Julius Thomas and in the screen game with Demaryius Thomas and Ball. They’re the best screen team in the NFL, especially when using wideouts. They will take some deep shots, a result of opponents crowding the line of scrimmage as the game goes on, with Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders slipping downfield when the opportunity arises. When they throw inside the red zone, they’ll use Welker and Sanders for his ability to shake free underneath, or play-action for Julius Thomas.

Defense:
Denver made plenty of personnel changes on defense with the additions of DE DeMarcus Ware, CB Aqib Talib and SS T.J. Ward, and once OLB Von Miller recovers from his torn ACL, Jack Del Rio’s unit will be a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks.

Key Offseason Moves:
ADDITIONS
WR Emmanuel Sanders (Steelers)
C Will Montgomery (Redskins)
DE DeMarcus Ware (Cowboys)
DT Marvin Austin (Cowboys)
CB Aqib Talib (Patriots)
SS T.J. Ward (Browns)

SUBTRACTIONS
RB Knowshon Moreno (Dolphins)
WR Eric Decker (Jets)
WR/KR Trindon Holliday (Giants)
TE Joel Dreessen (released)
G Zane Beadles (Jaguars)
G Chris Kuper (retired)
DE Robert Ayers (Giants)
DE Jeremy Mincey (Cowboys)
DE/OLB Shaun Phillips (Titans)
ILB Wesley Woodyard (Titans)
CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (Giants)
CB Champ Bailey (Saints)
FS Mike Adams (Colts)

StatFox Take: After going 35-45 with no winning seasons from 2007 to 2011, the Broncos have reeled off 13 wins in back-to-back years with Peyton Manning under center. This club did lose a couple of offensive weapons in RB Knowshon Moreno and WR Eric Decker, but second-year RB Montee Ball and new WR Emmanuel Sanders should be suitable replacements for these two. The Denver defense certainly improved with the signing of big-name free agents DE DeMarcus Ware, CB Aqib Talib and SS T.J. Ward. Although the schedule is tougher than last year, especially road games versus five playoff teams (Seahawks, Patriots, Chiefs, Chargers and Bengals), another dozen wins seems inevitable for Denver this season.
Prediction: OVER 11.5 wins (-105)

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook 2014 season preview for the Broncos:

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS


2013 Statistics:
SU Record: 11-5
ATS Record: 9-7
Over/Under: 7-9
Points Scored: 26.9 PPG (T-6th in NFL)
Points Allowed: 19.1 PPG (T-5th in NFL)

2014 Odds:
(For the latest Odds, connect to Sportsbook.com)
Odds to Win AFC West: 7/1
Odds to Win AFC Championship: 25/1
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLIX: 60/1
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 8.5

2014 Preview:
Offense:
This offense is built around Jamaal Charles and the running game. Head coach Andy Reid and offensive line coach Andy Heck brought a hybrid blocking scheme that mixes zone and gap blocking up front. Charles does a lot of his damage on the perimeter, though they do work some inside zone plays. After a solid showing in relief of an injured Charles in last year’s playoffs, second-year pro Knile Davis should be in for a slightly bigger role as K.C. looks to limit the number of hits Charles absorbs.

Alex Smith may be little more than a game manager, but he’s a good one. Like the offense he ran in San Francisco, Smith is asked to work off the running game and utilize his mobility to move the ball via a short passing game. He does a lot of moving around and will take off running more than most quarterbacks. Charles is the primary receiver in the passing game, getting set up on a series of screen plays. When they throw in the red zone, they continue to use Charles most often, as he’s the only K.C. player who was targeted more than six times inside the opponents’ 10 last season. They’ll use Dwayne Bowe on the perimeter when they need to move the chains, with Donnie Avery working a lot of deep crossing routes. They use two tight ends frequently, with Travis Kelce expected to be used as a receiver more often than Anthony Fasano was last season.

Defense:
In his first year in Kansas City, defensive coordinator Bob Sutton took a unit tied for last in turnovers in 2012 (13 TO) up to second in 2013 (36 TO). OLBs Justin Houston and Tamba Hali caused plenty of takeaways with a combined 22 sacks and five forced fumbles. The Chiefs also have the NFL’s best return game, scoring four return touchdowns in 2013.

Key Offseason Moves:
ADDITIONS
OT J’Marcus Webb (Vikings)
OT Ryan Harris (Texans)
OT Jeff Linkenbach (Colts)
DT Kyle Love (Jaguars)
DT Vance Walker (Raiders)
ILB Joe Mays (Texans)
LB Josh Mauga (Jets)
CB Chris Owens (Dolphins)

SUBTRACTIONS
WR Dexter McCluster (Titans)
TE Sean McGrath (retired)
G Jon Asamoah (Falcons)
G Rokevious Watkins (released)
G/OT Geoff Schwartz (Giants)
OT Branden Albert (Dolphins)
DE Tyson Jackson (Falcons)
ILB Akeem Jordan (Redskins)
CB Brandon Flowers (Chargers)
CB Dunta Robinson (released)
FS Kendrick Lewis (Texans)
SS Quintin Demps (Giants)

StatFox Take: The Chiefs finished last season by losing five of their final seven games, but they should be able to bounce back in 2014. They bolstered both lines with a chunk of offseason moves, and the duo of Justin Houston and Tamba Hali will wreak more havoc in rushing the quarterback. QB Alex Smith knows how to manage games and RB Jamaal Charles remains one of the best ball carriers on the planet. The schedule is pretty tough early on, but K.C. has the chance to win a ton of games in the final two months of the season. Go for the plus-money and put your wager down for another winning season for the Chiefs.
Prediction: OVER 8.5 wins (+160)

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook 2014 season preview for the Chiefs:

OAKLAND RAIDERS


2013 Statistics:
SU Record: 4-12
ATS Record: 7-8
Over/Under: 7-8-1
Points Scored: 20.1 PPG (24th in NFL)
Points Allowed: 28.3 PPG (29th in NFL)

2014 Odds:
(For the latest Odds, connect to Sportsbook.com)
Odds to Win AFC West: 28/1
Odds to Win AFC Championship: 100/1
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLIX: 200/1
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 4.5

2014 Preview:
Offense:
In addition to bringing in Greg Olson as offensive coordinator last season, the Raiders brought in Tony Sparano to install a man-blocking scheme. The move back to power blocking was for the most part successful. This year, newly acquired Maurice Jones-Drew will get the first crack at being a workhorse back. He’s dropped weight and has the vision to succeed in this scheme. Darren McFadden will battle for the starting job in what will likely end up in a timeshare. Latavius Murray reportedly looked good in practice during a redshirt rookie year and should be the No. 3 behind the injury-prone vets.

Olson showed a good deal of creativity last year with Terrelle Pryor and Matt McGloin giving two different looks under center. While he’s shown a willingness to attack deep in the past, this year should be more of a traditional West Coast passing game. James Jones will have a chance to be more of a possession guy, rather than the deep threat he was in Green Bay. Denarius Moore is going to be the home run threat, with Rod Streater likely to see a lot of targets working out of the slot. Tight end Mychal Rivera should see a slightly increased role. The backs will see plenty of work in the passing game, especially fullback Marcel Reece. They don’t throw often near the end zone, but Jones figures to see most red-zone targets. Moore was their most effective red-zone receiver last year.

Defense:
The Raiders had a huge offseason in signing DE Justin Tuck, DE LaMarr Woodley and DT Antonio Smith up front, and former 49ers cornerbacks Tarell Brown and Carlos Rogers will help shore up a lacking secondary. But Oakland has the NFL’s toughest schedule and doesn’t create enough turnovers to overcome that deficiency.

Key Offseason Moves:
ADDITIONS
QB Matt Schaub (Texans)
RB Maurice Jones-Drew (Jaguars)
WR James Jones (Packers)
WR Greg Little (Browns)
G/T Austin Howard (Jets)
G/T Kevin Boothe (Giants)
OT Donald Penn (Buccaneers)
DE Justin Tuck (Giants)
DE LaMarr Woodley (Steelers)
DE/DT C.J. Wilson (Packers)
DT/DE Antonio Smith (Texans)
CB Carlos Rogers (49ers)
CB Tarell Brown (49ers)

SUBTRACTIONS
QB Terrelle Pryor (Seahawks)
RB Rashad Jennings (Giants)
WR/KR Jacoby Ford (Jets)
G Mike Brisiel (released)
OT Jared Veldheer (Cardinals)
DE Lamarr Houston (Bears)
DT Vance Walker (Chiefs)
OLB Kevin Burnett (released)
CB Tracy Porter (Redskins)
CB Mike Jenkins (Buccaneers)
CB Phillip Adams (Seahawks)

StatFox Take: The Raiders haven't had a winning season since reaching the Super Bowl in 2002, and only twice during this decade of futility has the team surpassed five wins. Their only victory last year from Nov. 1 on was a road win at 2-14 Houston, and Oakland wound up allowing the fourth-most points in the NFL last year (28.3 PPG). Despite a last-place schedule, the Raiders still have to play the tough NFC West and an improved AFC East, and one of their "home" games will be played in London. Despite picking up some big name free agents like RB Maurice Jones-Drew, DEs Justin Tuck and LaMarr Woodley, and QB Matt Schaub, none of these past-their-prime players will be able to help Oakland avoid a third straight 4-12 season.

Prediction: UNDER 4.5 wins (+160)

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook 2014 season preview for the Raiders:

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS


2013 Statistics:
SU Record: 9-7
ATS Record: 9-6-1
Over/Under: 7-9
Points Scored: 24.8 PPG (12th in NFL)
Points Allowed: 21.8 PPG (11th in NFL)

2014 Odds:
(For the latest Odds, connect to Sportsbook.com)
Odds to Win AFC West: 6/1
Odds to Win AFC Championship: 18/1
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLIX: 42/1
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 8.5

2014 Preview:
Offense:
Veteran offensive line coach Joe D’Alessandris kept San Diego’s man-blocking scheme for the most part intact during his first season with the Chargers. They’ve also turned to a full committee approach. Ryan Mathews will once again lead the rotation as long as he stays healthy. Danny Woodhead will play on most passing downs and, surprisingly considering his size, stays on the field in many red-zone situations. Donald Brown will have a significant role as well, spelling Mathews and Woodhead on all three downs. The trio will continue to rotate inside the 20 with Woodhead getting the most touches.

Philip Rivers found new life last year under offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt. Whiz took the head job in Tennessee, but new OC Franck Reich ascends from quarterbacks coach and should keep the game plan intact. There are a lot more quick throws in this offense, keeping Rivers upright and also giving San Diego’s playmakers a chance. Keenan Allen is the No. 1 target, often working the same side of the field as tight end Antonio Gates, the second receiver. Woodhead will continue to have a big role as an underneath target, stealing chances from slot receiver Eddie Royal. Allen emerged as a big threat when they threw deep in opponent territory last season, partially because teams still focus coverage on Gates. Woodhead remains a big receiving threat around the goal line, and second TE Ladarius Green appears ready for a bigger role. Malcom Floyd will be the deep threat if he can stay healthy. If not, Vincent Brown will assume that role.

Defense:
John Pagano’s 3-4 defense doesn’t give up many points, but they finished 30th in takeaways last year and ranked 23rd in both total defense and sacks. With no significant free agent additions, rookie CB Jason Verrett is the only real upgrade here.

Key Offseason Moves:
ADDITIONS
QB Kellen Clemens (Rams)
RB Donald Brown (Colts)
TE David Johnson (Steelers)
ILB Kavell Conner (Colts)
CB Brandon Flowers (Chiefs)
CB Brandon Ghee (Bengals)

SUBTRACTIONS
QB Charlie Whitehurst (Titans)
RB Ronnie Brown (Texans)
FB Le'Ron McClain (released)
WR Lavelle Hawkins (Buccaneers)
G/OT Steve Schilling (Seahawks)
NT Cam Thomas (Steelers)
DE/OLB Larry English (Buccaneers)
OLB Jonas Mouton (released)
CB Derek Cox (Vikings)
CB Johnny Patrick (Jets)

StatFox Take: This has been a pretty strong franchise over the past decade with just one losing year since 2003. The Chargers almost had another losing mark last season, but closed out with four straight regular-season wins before crushing the Bengals on the road in the playoffs. San Diego did not make a lot of noise this offseason, but one thing the club focused on was shoring up a weak secondary (259 pass YPG allowed last year, 4th-worst in NFL), by drafting CB Jason Verrett and picking up free-agent CBs Brandon Flowers and Brandon Ghee. The offense still has enough playmakers to produce another winning campaign, but don't expect another perfect December in 2014 with a brutal closing schedule of New England, Denver, at San Francisco and at Kansas City. With nearly even money for either side, let San Diego's strong history guide your wager to be placed on the Over.
Prediction: OVER 8.5 wins (-110)

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook 2014 season preview for the Chargers:

All NFL Previews

AFC East
AFC North
AFC South
AFC West
NFC East - Tuesday, August 19
NFC North - Thursday, August 21
NFC South - Tuesday, August 26
NFC West - Thursday, August 28


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