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NFL Season Preview: NFC North
By: Staff Writer - StatFox
Published: 8/21/2014  at  5:49:00 AM
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To get you prepared for the upcoming NFL season, we continue our run of all 32 team previews, rolling out two divisions per week throughout August. For complete coverage, download your copy of the 2014 StatFox Edge Football Preview. Up next is the NFC North, with the Green Bay Packers tabbed as the favorite to win the division.

CHICAGO BEARS


2013 Statistics:
SU Record: 8-8
ATS Record: 4-11-1
Over/Under: 12-4
Points Scored: 27.8 PPG (2nd in NFL)
Points Allowed: 29.9 PPG (T-30th in NFL)

2014 Odds:
(For the latest Odds, connect to Sportsbook.com)
Odds to Win NFC North: 7/2
Odds to Win NFC Championship: 13/1
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLIX: 25/1
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 8.5

2014 Preview:
Offense:
Aaron Kromer is both the offensive coordinator and offensive line coach, though head coach Marc Trestman handles the play-calling duties. This is a versatile running game that shows a lot of different looks and styles. They’re at their best with fullback Tony Fiammetta leading the way for Matt Forte on inside zone runs. They’ll also use some basic man concepts, with pulling guards leading the way, when they send Forte outside the tackles. It’s a pass-heavy offense and will remain that way considering the lack of depth behind Forte, who will carry a huge workload with rookie Ka’Deem Carey likely to be sprinkled in.

Chicago will continue to run a pass-heavy offense under Trestman. He emphasized shorter, quicker timing routes with quarterback Jay Cutler, keeping him relatively upright and allowing his NBA-sized receivers to make plays. Cutler is able to make more pre-snap determinations, and often just puts the ball up top for either Brandon Marshall or Alshon Jeffery to bring in. The two of them work deeper downfield than most receivers. They’ll use TE Martellus Bennett as a possession guy in the middle of the field once the receivers stretch out opposing defenses. They’ll go three-wide sparingly. Forte will be involved heavily in the screen game and as a checkdown option.

Defense:
After the Bears’ horrific 2013 season of placing among the bottom-three NFL teams in sacks, points allowed and yards allowed, changes were definitely needed under defensive coordinator Mel Tucker. But new defensive ends Jared Allen and Lamarr Houston and new safeties Ryan Mundy and M.D. Jennings can only help so much.

Key Offseason Moves:
ADDITIONS
QB Jimmy Clausen (Panthers)
WR Santonio Holmes (Jets)
WR Josh Morgan (Redskins)
WR Michael Spurlock (Lions)
WR Armanti Edwards (Browns)
WR David Gettis (Panthers)
TE Matthew Mulligan (Patriots)
C Brian de la Puente (Saints)
G/C Rob Turner (Titans)
G Dylan Gandy (Lions)
DE Jared Allen (Vikings)
DE Lamarr Houston (Raiders)
DE Willie Young (Lions)
OLB Jordan Senn (Panthers)
SS Adrian Wilson (Bears)
SS Ryan Mundy (Giants)
SS M.D. Jennings (Packers)
FS Danny McCray (Cowboys)

SUBTRACTIONS
QB Josh McCown (Buccaneers)
RB Michael Bush (released)
WR Earl Bennett (Browns)
WR/ST Eric Weems (Falcons)
DE Julius Peppers (Packers)
DE/DT Corey Wootton (Vikings)
DT Henry Melton (Cowboys)
CB Zackary Bowman (Giants)
LB Blake Costanzo (49ers)
OLB James Anderson (Patriots)
SS Major Wright (Buccaneers)
S Derrick Martin (released)
KR Devin Hester (Falcons)
P Adam Podlesh (Steelers)
LS Patrick Mannelly (retired)

StatFox Take: Chicago’s schedule is average in terms of opponent win pct. (15th in NFL), but it has a brutal road schedule with out-of-division trips to San Francisco, Carolina, Atlanta and New England, and NFC North games are never easy. Take the plus money and expect a .500 finish for the third time in four seasons.
Prediction: UNDER 8.5 wins (+140)

DETROIT LIONS


2013 Statistics:
SU Record: 7-9
ATS Record: 6-10
Over/Under: 8-8
Points Scored: 24.7 PPG (13th in NFL)
Points Allowed: 23.5 PPG (15th in NFL)

2014 Odds:
(For the latest Odds, connect to Sportsbook.com)
Odds to Win NFC North: 23/5
Odds to Win NFC Championship: 20/1
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLIX: 42/1
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 8.5

2014 Preview:
Offense:
New offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi will call the plays, and he has said that he’s essentially bringing the Saints’ playbook to Detroit. That should mean a diverse running game that borrows concepts from across the league. Reggie Bush will likely retain his spot atop the Lions’ backfield committee, as Detroit still figures to be a pass- first offense. Joique Bell has the size and power skill set to be an asset on the inside zone runs that figure to be heavily featured this season. Bush and Bell often split the red-zone snaps a year ago, though the more durable Bell more often gets the call on the goal line.

The Lions figure to be pass-happy as usual under Lombardi and new head coach Jim Caldwell. They’ll continue to move Calvin Johnson around the formation to keep teams from keying on him. Golden Tate will provide a deep threat on the other side of the field, and the Lions will frequently use the screen game with Bush and Bell. They also figure to use two tight ends more often than three-wide. TE Brandon Pettigrew is more of an in-line blocker and underneath threat, while rookie TE Eric Ebron is the chess piece who will be flexed out to create mismatches. He could be the No. 2 target by the season’s second half. Not surprisingly, Johnson is almost always their first look when they throw near the goal line. Coverage often dictates if they’ll look elsewhere. Pettigrew had been a traditional play-action target under the old regime, and he and Ebron are red-zone threats.

Defense:
After posting a mere 39 turnovers and 67 sacks in the past two years combined, new defensive coordinator Teryl Austin was hired in the offseason to help this team make more plays with his ultra- aggressive style. New starters, safety James Ihedigbo and rookie linebacker Kyle Van Noy should help an underachieving front four.

Key Offseason Moves:
ADDITIONS
QB Dan Orlovsky (Buccaneers)
FB Jed Collins (Saints)
WR Golden Tate (Seahawks)
G Garrett Reynolds (Falcons)
DE/OLB Darryl Tapp (Redskins)
CB Cassius Vaughn (Colts)
SS James Ihedigbo (Ravens)

SUBTRACTIONS
QB Shaun Hill (Rams)
WR Nate Burleson (Browns)
WR Michael Spurlock (Bears)
TE Dorin Dickerson (Titans)
C/G Leroy Harris (released)
G Dylan Gandy (Bears)
OT Jason Fox (Dolphins)
DE Israel Idonije (Giants)
DE Willie Young (Bears)
CB Chris Houston (released)
S Louis Delmas (Dolphins)

StatFox Take: While the overall schedule strength is average (16th), the road schedule is a bear both outside the division (Carolina, Arizona, New England) and in facing the Bears and Packers in late December to close out the season. Since 2008, this club has averaged 4.8 wins per season.
Prediction: UNDER 8.5 wins (-120)

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook 2014 season preview for the Lions:

GREEN BAY PACKERS


2013 Statistics:
SU Record: 8-8
ATS Record: 6-9-1
Over/Under: 9-7
Points Scored: 26.1 PPG (T-8th in NFL)
Points Allowed: 26.8 PPG (T-24th in NFL)

2014 Odds:
(For the latest Odds, connect to Sportsbook.com)
Odds to Win NFC North: 71/100
Odds to Win NFC Championship: 53/10
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLIX: 10/1
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 10.5

2014 Preview:
Offense:
While the personnel has changed, there haven’t been a whole lot of adjustments to the Packers’ running game over the past couple of seasons. They still use a zone-heavy blocking scheme, with big backs pounding between the tackles. Eddie Lacy is in for a feature- back workload this year, with James Starks picking up the scraps. Johnathan Franklin’s retirement leaves DuJuan Harris for a roster spot. Lacy is at his best going downhill on inside zone runs, similar to what he executed at Alabama. He took a big red-zone workload last year and will do so again. Even with quarterback Aaron Rodgers healthy for 16 games, Green Bay will still get enough scoring chances for Lacy despite skewing pass-heavy in the red zone again. Lacy, not John Kuhn, now takes goal-line carries as well. Kuhn serves as a lead blocker and occasional short-yardage guy.

McCarthy’s West Coast offense mixes in a lot of deep shots. Rodgers will continue to move around and look for Jordy Nelson on the perimeter as his primary target. Randall Cobb is Green Bay’s chess piece, lining up as a boundary receiver, slot man and also in the backfield. Jarrett Boykin will see extended action as James Jones’ replacement, and they figure to run a lot of three-wide sets. Nelson was targeted most often inside the 20, though Boykin emerged as a favorite of Rodgers’ in the red zone too.

Defense:
The Packers will remain one of the better sack teams in the NFL with the addition of defensive end Julius Peppers and a healthy outside linebacker Clay Matthews (168.5 combined career sacks). The concerns with this team are the amount of points and yards it allows, and the secondary doesn’t make as many plays as it used to.

Key Offseason Moves:
ADDITIONS
DE/OLB Julius Peppers (Bears)
DT Letroy Guion (Vikings)

SUBTRACTIONS
RB Johnathan Franklin (released)
WR James Jones (Raiders)
C Evan Dietrich-Smith (Buccaneers)
OT Marshall Newhouse (Bengals)
DE Jerel Worthy (Patriots)
DE/DT C.J. Wilson (Raiders)
SS M.D. Jennings (Bears)

StatFox Take: Green Bay is once again the class of the NFC North, winning the division last year despite losing Rodgers for half the season. The sched- ule has some rough patches, but having five home games from Nov. 9 on will give the Packers a huge home-field advantage.
Prediction: OVER 10.5 wins (-110)

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook 2014 season preview for the Packers:

MINNESOTA VIKINGS


2013 Statistics:
SU Record: 5-10
ATS Record: 9-7
Over/Under: 12-4
Points Scored: 24.4 PPG (T-14th in NFL)
Points Allowed: 30.0 PPG (Last in NFL)

2014 Odds:
(For the latest Odds, connect to Sportsbook.com)
Odds to Win NFC North: 13/1
Odds to Win NFC Championship: 50/1
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLIX: 100/1
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 6.5

2014 Preview:
Offense:
At every one of Norv Turner’s stops, the offense has leaned on a power running game, and his first year as the Vikings’ offensive coordinator will be no different. He retained offensive line coach Jeff Davidson, whose scheme skews toward more zone than gap blocking. Adrian Peterson will see a monstrous workload due to his club’s uncertainty under center, not to mention the inclement weather they’ll be playing in as they move outdoors to University of Minnesota’s TCF Bank Stadium for 2014 and 2015 while their new stadium is being constructed. Expect the Vikings to also be one of the NFL’s most run-heavy red zone teams.

Turner runs a classic Air Coryell, high-to-low passing game, one that should be relatively easy for rookie Teddy Bridgewater to pick up once he ascends to the top of the depth chart past incumbents Matt Cassel and Christian Ponder. Cassel was named the Week 1 starter. They’re going to carve out a bigger role for Cordarrelle Patterson, who has proven to be a catch-and-run threat, but he should also start working downfield more often. Patterson also proved to be a red-zone threat in limited chances last year. Greg Jennings will serve as the top downfield option and tight end Kyle Rudolph should have a big role as a possession receiver and an expanded role in the red zone. Peterson will also be worked into the passing game.

Defense:
Free agents free safety Kurt Coleman and cornerbacks Captain Munnerlyn and Derek Cox were nice offseason additions. But new head coach Mike Zimmer and new defensive coordinator George Edwards don’t have any superstar players to work with now that defensive end Jared Allen and his 128.5 career sacks are in rival Chicago.

Key Offseason Moves:
ADDITIONS
WR Lestar Jean (Texans)
TE Allen Reisner (Jaguars)
G Vlad Ducasse (Jets)
DE Tom Johnson (Saints)
DE/DT Corey Wootton (Bears)
DT Linval Joseph (Giants)
ILB Jasper Brinkley (Cardinals)
CB Captain Munnerlyn (Panthers)
CB Derek Cox (Chargers)
FS Kurt Coleman (Eagles)
SS Chris Crocker (Bengals)

SUBTRACTIONS
QB Josh Freeman (Giants)
QB Joe Webb (Panthers)
RB Toby Gerhart (Jaguars)
WR Greg Childs (released)
TE John Carlson (Cardinals)
OT J’Marcus Webb (Chiefs)
DE Jared Allen (Bears)
DT Kevin Williams (Seahawks)
DT Letroy Guion (Packers)
LB Desmond Bishop (Cardinals)
MLB Erin Henderson (released)
CB Chris Cook (49ers)

StatFox Take: This team has averaged six wins per season since 2010, and that number will not likely be improved on this season with so many changes to personnel and coaches. The Vikings could easily begin the season with six straight losses (Rams, Patriots, Saints, Falcons, Packers and Lions).
Prediction: UNDER 6.5 wins (+120)

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook 2014 season preview for the Vikings:

All NFL Previews

AFC East
AFC North
AFC South
AFC West
NFC East
NFC North
NFC South - Tuesday, August 26
NFC West - Thursday, August 28


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