StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

No. 18 Ole Miss collides with Boise State Thursday
By:   - 
Published: 8/28/2014  at  1:33:00 PM
  Print This Article    

BOISE STATE BRONCOS (0-0)
vs. OLE MISS REBELS (0-0)

Georgia Dome - Atlanta, GA
Kickoff: Thursday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Ole Miss -10.5, Total: 53.5

No. 18 Ole Miss looks to start its season on a positive note as travels to Atlanta to meet a Boise State team looking to give new coach Bryan Harsin a crucial victory.

The Rebels were a young team last season that relied on a lot of freshmen, but this year, the expectations are much higher as the team brings back a ton of talent. They got off to a fast start in 2013, winning their first three games by 14.3 PPG, including a pair of road contests at Vanderbilt and at Texas. After losing the next three contests, Ole Miss closed out the season on a 4-2 run capped off by a Music City Bowl win over Georgia Tech. The Rebels will be tested against a Boise State program that saw long-time head coach Chris Petersen (92-13 record). The offensive-minded Harsin will have the Broncos offense revolving around RB Jay Ajayi, who is the fourth highest returning rusher in the country. The Broncos have been very successful in season openers against big-conference teams, defeating programs such as Georgia, Oregon and Virginia Tech in recent years. Bettors should know that favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with 425+ total YPG in the previous season with an experienced starting QB are 29-7 ATS (81%) in the past five seasons, but Boise State is 5-1 ATS as a neutral-field underdog since 1992. There are no significant injuries for either team.

No quarterback in the SEC has as much experience coming back as Ole Miss senior QB Bo Wallace (3,346 passing yards, 18 TD, 10 INT; 355 rush yards, 6 TD). However, for the Rebels to truly contend in the SEC, he will have to become more consistent. In his final three games, Wallace threw five interceptions as the Rebels went 1-2. He is an athletic quarterback, but he has a tendency to go for the big play too often. With a loaded defense and talent around him, Wallace just needs to limit mistakes. Sophomore WR Laquon Treadwell (72 catches, 608 yards, 5 TD) has a chance to become one of the elite receivers in all of the country. With Donte Moncrief graduated, Treadwell will undoubtedly become the focal point of the offense. The passing game should be able to compete with anybody, but the running game still remains a question mark. RB I’Tavius Mathers (563 rush yds, 5.9 YPC, 3 TD) looks to be the guy right now, but the Rebels will also use RB Jaylen Walton (523 rush yds, 4.6 YPC, 6 TD). DT Robert Nkemdiche (34 tackles, 2 sacks), had his big moments as a freshman, but struggled at times with injuries and constant double-teams. However, he has the talent and potential to become a double-digit sack guy, as he possesses amazing speed for a player his size. Ole Miss also returns All-American S Cody Prewitt (6 INT) while S Anthony Alford and hybrid Tony Conner (66 tackles) are two of the best athletes in the conference. The Rebels are coming into this season very optimistic, but they must not take this talented Boise State team lightly.

Leading the way for the Broncos offense will be Ajayi (1,425 rush yds, 5.7 YPC, 18 TD), who is an elusive runner. He is also a big part of the passing game, catching 22 passes out of the backfield for 222 yards last year. Under center will be QB Grant Hedrick (1,825 pass yds, 69% completions, 7.5 YPA, 16 TD, 5 INT), who really came on at the end of the year with 14 TD and 3 INT over his final five games. Hedrick also forces defenses to respect his feet, where he is able to get out and make some plays (277 rush yds, 4.1 YPC, 6 TD). When he gets out of the pocket, he is generally scrambling to allow his receivers more time to get open. The Broncos offense has the makings of an elite group, as receivers Matt Miller (216 career catches, 3rd most among active players) and Shane Williams-Rhodes (77 catches, 702 yards, 6 TD) are a dynamic receiving duo. The defense of the Broncos has a lot of talent, but is also very young. Shutdown CB Donte Deayon (6 INT, 54 tackles) and S Darian Thompson (63 tackles, four interceptions) will need to lead from the back.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: