First pitch: Thursday, 7:05 p.m. ET
Line: Baltimore -150, Cincinnati +140, Total: 8

The Orioles look to continue their breakout season when they host the Reds in the series finale.

The Reds had very high hopes going into this season, but their tough division and injuries have put them far down in the NL Central. They are 3-5 in their past eight games and have run into the juggernaut that is Baltimore, losing the first two contests of this series by a combined score of 11-4. On Tuesday, the Reds were dominated by a score of 6-0, with the offense getting just four hits; all of which were singles. OF Billy Hamilton (.267 BA) has been better offensively than most expected, and he is 9-for-26 (.346) with five runs and six stolen bases in his past seven games. Baltimore has taken over the AL East and looks to be leagues ahead of any of their divisional mates. They have come away victorious in eight of the past 10 games, opening their divisional lead to 9.5 games. Their win on Wednesday was led by a shutout from starter Miguel Gonzalez (9 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 8 K's) as the team hit three more homers to increase their majors lead to 182 bombs on the year. OF Nelson Cruz (.257 BA) comes into this contest with a five-game hitting streak in which he is 6-for-19 (.316) with two homers, 3 RBI and four runs. Cruz leads the AL in homers (36) and ranks fifth in RBI (91). Taking the mound for Cincinnati on Thursday will be RHP Mike Leake (10-11, 3.33 ERA), who goes up against RHP Chris Tillman (11-5, 3.36 ERA) who is looking to help his team to a series sweep. The road has not been a welcomed place for the Reds, as they are 30-41 (.423) away from home while Baltimore is a brilliant 42-28 (.600) at Camden Yards. With this being an interleague matchup, the two clubs seldom meet, and this series is their first since 2011. In the first two games of the set, the Orioles have 17 hits and four home runs while Cincinnati has 11 hits, with nine of those being singles. As far as betting trends go, the Reds are 218-211 (.508) in road games after batting .250 or worse over a 20-game span since 1997, and the Orioles are 20-5 (.800) when the total is 7 to 8.5 this year. Injuries have been a huge issue for Cincinnati, which will have 1B Joey Votto (quad) out while 3B Manny Machado (knee), OF Steve Pearce (abdominal) and C Matt Wieters (elbow) continue to be injured for Baltimore.

Mike Leake has been improving over the past few seasons and has a similar ERA to last year (3.37 ERA in 2013) while he has raised his ground-ball percentage from 48.7% to 54.2% this year. He has also seen many of his other peripheral numbers get better with his strikeouts per inning rising more than one from 2013 and has improved on his already solid control (2.0 BB/9). Homers have been difficult to come by against the righty and since allowing a career-high 1.31 HR/9 in 2012, he has lowered that number in each successive season to his current 0.82 HR/9 mark. Leake has not allowed a run over his past two starts (13.2 IP), giving up a mere eight hits and three walks while striking out seven. He has yet to face the Orioles in his career, and the only player on Baltimore who has more than five at-bats against him is 3B Kelly Johnson, acquired from Boston on Saturday, who is 4-for-11 with a solo home run. One batter that Leake has not faced, but should not be too concerned about is 1B Chris Davis who has an average below the Mendoza line (.194) while striking out in 32.6 percent of his at-bats. The Reds’ bullpen is a dreadful 10-26 (.278) this year with a subpar 3.99 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, while converting only 37-of-56 (66%) saves. Closer Aroldis Chapman (2.44 ERA, 29 saves) has struck out an amazing 17.7 batters per nine innings and has saved 29-of-31 games while allowing only one home run in 44.1 innings (0.20 HR/9).

Chris Tillman is a big factor in the Orioles success this season as he is putting together his second consecutive 200-inning year with double-digit wins. Unfortunately he has not been able to keep up his strikeout rate from 2013 (7.8 K/9) as he is mowing down 6.2 batters per nine innings this year while allowing 17 home runs in 176.2 frames (0.87 HR/9). Tillman has been rather lucky though, with batters hitting just .259 BABIP against him. He has turned it on over the last few months, recording a quality start in 13 of his past 16 outings and has not allowed more than three earned runs since June 5. In August, he went 4-0 (6-0 team record) while posting a 1.33 ERA and allowed a meager 25 hits in 40.2 frames. Just like Leake, Tillman has never faced his Thursday opponent and will need to be careful when going against All-Star 3B Todd Frazier who ranks sixth in the NL in homers (23) and ninth in stolen bases (19). On the other hand, OF Jay Bruce is hitting a career-low .220 and has seen his strikeout rate rise and ISO fall in each of the past three seasons. The relievers for Baltimore boast a strong 24-17 (.585) record with a 3.15 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, and have converted 45-of-62 (73%) save chances. Closer Zach Britton (1.87 ERA, 32 saves) has not blown a save since July 18, as he has benefited from batters hitting a mere .214 BABIP against him.