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Yankees desperate for win Thursday vs. Rays
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 9/11/2014  at  4:17:00 AM
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TAMPA BAY RAYS (70-76)

at NEW YORK YANKEES (74-69)

First pitch: Thursday, 7:05 p.m. ET
Line: Tampa Bay -105, New York -105, Total: 7

The Rays wrap up a three-game series in Bronx on Thursday night to take on a struggling Yankees team desperately trying to stay in the playoff hunt.

Tampa Bay has had a very disappointing season after such lofty expectations, as the Rays have been hampered by injuries all season long to their team's biggest strength, the pitching staff. Tampa Bay is 6-10 since Aug. 25 with their main problem being pitching, as opponents have scored 6.0 runs per game in those losses. On Wednesday night, the Rays took an early 4-0 lead in the fourth inning, but failed to do much else and slowly let New York back in it with the final score being 8-5. With a home run in the ninth inning, 3B Evan Longoria (.254 BA) has three long balls and 7 RBI in his past seven games and at least 20 homers in six of his seven seasons at the big-league level. The Yankees' chances of making the postseason are now incredibly slim with 4.5 games and four teams in between them and the second spot in the AL Wild Card. It does not help that they have lost eight of their past 14 games, and in that time have lost three series against teams that are ahead of them in the standings. But the eight runs scored on Wednesday were their most since Aug. 27, as C Brian McCann (.241 BA) went 2-for-3 with a home run, 3 RBI and two runs. With two more round-trippers, McCann will have 20 for the seventh straight season, which is quite a feat for a catcher. The pitching matchup on Thursday should be a great one as RHP Alex Cobb (9-7, 2.83 ERA) of the Rays goes toe-to-toe with RHP Michael Pineda (3-4, 1.80 ERA) for New York. Tampa Bay has been a horrendous road team at 33-42 (.440) away from home, but the Yanks are just barely over .500 (37-35) when playing in the Bronx. In 2014, the Rays have done very well in this season series with an overall record of 9-6 while being an impressive 6-2 when playing in Yankee Stadium. They are 31-21 (.596) in the matchup over the past three seasons. Some trends that bettors should be aware of include that Tampa Bay is 20-9 (.690) in road games in the second half of the season this year while going a woeful 15-28 (.349) after batting .240 or worse over a 20-game span in 2014. In injury news, Rays OF Desmond Jennings (knee) is out for the rest of the year, while New York has OF Carlos Beltran (elbow), OF Brett Gardner (abdominal) and OF Martin Prado (hamstring) all listed as day-to-day.

Alex Cobb has improved in each consecutive season since he broke into the league in 2011 and Thursday will mark his 24th start of the year; a career-high. He has also posted career-best numbers in strikeout rate (8.6 K/9) and walk rate (2.6 BB/9), and has allowed a mere nine home runs in 140 frames (0.58 HR/9). Cobb’s changeup is phenomenal as well, and has helped induce ground balls in 56.4% of his opposition’s at-bats. The 26-year-old has not allowed more than three earned runs since June 23 (13 starts) and was amazing against the potent Orioles lineup in his last start, going seven scoreless innings while allowing six hits and striking out six batters with one walk. Cobb has owned the Yankees in his career (8 starts) and is 5-1 with a 1.75 ERA and 0.87 WHIP while earning a win after pitching 7.1 scoreless innings against them this season. No player on New York has really done amazing against the righty, but 1B Mark Teixeira has been solid with four hits in nine at-bats while taking one out of the park (2 RBI). Both OFs Jacoby Ellsbury (3-for-16, 4 K's) and Brett Gardner (2-for-13) have hit a homer against Cobb, but have otherwise been ineffective in the matchup. Tampa Bay’s bullpen has gone 21-26 (.447) this season despite a strong 3.48 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, and has successfully saved 33-of-49 (67%) games. Closer Jake McGee (1.34 ERA, 17 saves) has blown two save chances this season while striking out a ton of batters (11.2 K/9) and showing impeccable control (1.9 BB/9).

Michael Pineda could have been a real difference maker for this ballclub if he had been able to stay healthy, as he has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of his nine starts on the year. Pineda does not bring to the table the amazing strikeout skills (6.1 K/9) that he had when the Yankees traded for him back at the end of the 2011 season, but he has shown great control (0.7 BB/9) and surrendered only three homers in his 50 innings on the mound (0.54 HR/9). Unfortunately for Pineda, New York has given him little to no run support with the offense scoring three or fewer runs in seven of his nine outings. In his two career starts against the Rays, the 25-year-old has gone 1-0 with a 2.19 ERA and 0.89 WHIP, and has struck out 15 batters in 12.1 innings. No player on Tampa Bay’s roster has tallied double-digit at-bats against Pineda in their careers, but in limited time SS Yunel Escobar (3-for-9) and 2B Ben Zobrist (2-for-5, 3 RBI) have done very well. Meanwhile, 3B Evan Longoria (0-for-4, 2 K's) has not looked good in this matchup. New York’s relievers have combined to go 21-24 (.467) with a 3.64 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, and are 43-for-60 (72%) in their save opportunities. Closer David Robertson (2.77 ERA, 35 saves) has mowed down 13.7 batters per nine innings and has allowed a mere one hit with no walks and eight strikeouts over his past five appearances (5.1 IP).


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