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Notre Dame favored big over Purdue Saturday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 9/13/2014  at  5:42:00 AM
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PURDUE BOILERMAKERS (1-1)
vs. NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (2-0)

Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, IN
Kickoff: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: Notre Dame -28

No. 11 Notre Dame looks to stay undefeated as they take on Purdue Saturday night at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

Purdue is starting off the 2014 season with five straight games at home, and their first two could not have been any different. To open the year, they hosted Western Michigan and defeated them 43-34 as seven-point favorites. The Broncos actually outgained the Boilermakers, 456-407, but were hurt by a 56-yard interception return that set up an easy TD run in the second quarter. Last Saturday, Purdue took on another Michigan team, Central Michigan, and were owned as they lost 38-17 as three-point favorites. Once again the yardage total was similar with the Chippewas edging the Boilermakers 333-326, but it was Purdue who lost on turnovers after coughing up the pigskin three times. The Fighting Irish have opened the season in stellar fashion as they started the year with a big 48-17 victory as 19.5-point favorites over Rice and followed that with a shellacking of long-time rival Michigan. Notre Dame shut the Wolverines out, 31-0, as four-point favorites and forced four turnovers in the otherwise equal contest. The Irish were also very efficient on third downs (7-for-15) as they shut out their rivals for the first time in the 42-game history between these two programs. Purdue and Notre Dame meet up each season and the Irish have won SU in the last six years while going 2-3 ATS. Last year the Boilermakers were 17-point dogs at home when they took on Notre Dame and held a 10-3 lead going into halftime, but the Fighting Irish pulled themselves together and won 31-24 behind 309 yards of passing. Bettors should take notice that Notre Dame is a mere 7-19 ATS (27%) as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 since 1992 while Purdue is a woeful 2-11 ATS (15%) when coming off one or more straight overs since the start of 2012. In injury news, DB Taylor Richards (academics) has been upgraded to probable for the Boilermakers as Notre Dame will continue to have WR Davaris Daniels (academics) suspended and star DB Austin Collinsworth (knee) out indefinitely.

Can Notre Dame cover the hefty spread on a neutral field? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season. During the 2013 season, StatFox Dave led the experts with a 55% ATS mark (38-31-2), while Gary and Brian both finished with another winning season (51% ATS). StatFox Scott saved his best for last with a 5-2 ATS mark (71%) in college football bowl Best Bets.

Purdue has not looked to great over their first two contests while ranking in the bottom half of the nation in both passing yards (192.5 YPG) and rushing (174 YPG). QB Danny Etling (307 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs) is looking to improve upon what was a solid freshman season but did not look good in the loss to Central Michigan last week, going 17-for-32 with 126 yards (3.9 YPA) and two INTs. He did add to the offense a running presence, though, getting 53 yards on 10 attempts (5.3 YPC) and scoring a TD. Giving the team a veteran presence in the backfield is senior HB Raheem Mostert (199 yards, 1 TD) who already has 41 attempts (4.9 YPC) through the first couple of weeks. HB Akeem Hunt (87 yards, 1 TD) will certainly play a vital role in this offense as well after compiling 805 yards of offense (464 rushing, 340 receiving) and four total TDs in 2013. WR DeAngelo Yancey was solid last year with 546 receiving yards (17.1 avg) and two TDs but has just a single reception for nine yards through the first two games. Leading the receivers so far has been TE Justin Sinz (96 yards, 1 TD) who is tops on the team with 10 catches. Purdue ranked near the bottom of the FBS in nearly every defensive category last year and so far are putting up poor numbers to start out the 2014 season as they have allowed their opponents to score 36.0 PPG against them. DB Taylor Richards (64 tackles in 2013) would be a huge addition back into this defense which has leaned on DB Frankie Williams (9 tackles, 1 INT) so far.

The Fighting Irish have looked solid on both sides of the ball in the early going and are averaging 428 YPG (70th in the nation) with their passing attack (260.5 YPG) being the strength. The reason for this is because of QB Everett Golson (521 yards, 5 TDs) who has yet to throw a pick and has added three rushing TDs through the first two games. He has completed 66.1% of his passes so far while going for 9.3 YPA and has run this offense like a well-oiled machine. The backfield is crowded with three players already running the ball 16 times or more as HB Greg Bryant leads the way with 90 yards (5.6 YPC) and a TD. Although, Bryant really struggled against Michigan, averaging a putrid 2.4 YPC as HB Cam McDaniel (65 yards, 1 TD) was the leading rusher. With WR Davaris Daniels (745 yards, 7 TDs in 2013) out of the picture for now with his suspension; wideouts William Fuller (174 yards, 2 TDs) and Amir Carlisle (115 yards, 2 TDs) have become the main focal points for Golson. Fuller has a TD in each game while Carlisle was a big asset against the Wolverines as he grabbed both of his scores on redzone TDs. Notre Dame’s defense is usually very impressive and nothing has changed this year as they have allowed a meager 6.5 PPG and 328 YPG so far. DB Max Redfield (3 tackles, 1 INT) will lead the deep secondary of the Irish as he hopes to help with the loss of Collinsworth for the near future.


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