StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

No. 9 USC visits Boston College Saturday
By:   - 
Published: 9/13/2014  at  1:19:00 AM
  Print This Article    

USC TROJANS (2-0)
at BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES (1-1)

Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: USC -17, Total: 55

The No. 9 USC Trojans look to build off a big win against Stanford as the team travels to take on Boston College on Saturday night.

USC has played at Boston College only one time in program history, and that was in 1988. These two teams played each other last season in Southern California, with the Trojans winning by a score of 35-7. Quarterback Cody Kessler had a big game in that one, throwing for 237 yards and two touchdowns. The Trojans (2-0 ATS, 1-1 OVER/UNDER) dominated the game in every area, as the team outgained the Eagles 521-184. USC enters this game coming off a 13-10 victory against Stanford, their fourth consecutive victory on the road dating back to last season. The Eagles are looking to bounce back from a 30-20 loss to Pittsburgh last week. In that game, it was the defense that struggled, allowing the Panthers running back James Conner to rush for 213 yards. The Eagles (1-1 ATS, 1-0 UNDER) have struggled against ranked teams in recent memory, going 0-4 the past two seasons.

Can Boston College keep the score close on Saturday? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season. During the 2013 season, StatFox Dave led the experts with a 55% ATS mark (38-31-2), while Gary and Brian both finished with another winning season (51% ATS). StatFox Scott saved his best for last with a 5-2 ATS mark (71%) in college football bowl Best Bets.

The Trojans are two games in to the Steve Sarkisian era, and things could not be going any better. USC has shown a nice balance of passing (44th, 279.5 YPG) and rushing (46th,216.5 YPG). The offensive improvement starts with the play of QB Cody Kessler (529 passing yards and four touchdowns). He has improved in both his passing, but also is just in total command of the team this year. However, the cupboard is not bare for him as he has a lot of offensive weapons. Running back Javorius Allen (287 yards, 6.4 YPC) is quickly showing that he is as good of running back as there is in the conference. He is a nice combination of size and speed, and can also make some plays in the passing game coming out of the backfield. His emergence has forced opposing defenses to have to load the box up a little more, and that opens it up for an elite passing game. Nelson Agholor (14 catches, 148 receiving yards and two touchdowns) is the guy that Kessler is looking for whenever he needs to complete a big third down play. Freshman wide receiver JuJu Smith (five catches, 121 yards) is the deep threat for the Trojans offense, as he has the speed to get behind the defense. USC has been able to go on long drives this season, and that is because the team has shown the ability to convert on third down (10th in the country with a 56.3 conversion on third down). This has given the defense the rest it needs, and it has shown with one of the elite defenses in the country. The Trojans rank seventh in the country in interceptions (4), while also ranking in the top 15 in turnover margin (+2.0), 14th in scoring defense (11.5 PPG) and 15th in red zone defense (57 percent). The unit is led by Leonard Williams (18 tackles, one sack and one interception). When he is on his game, he can be nearly impossible to block. He demands the double team, which allows teammates to run freely after the quarterback. J.R. Tavai (10 tackles, 2.0 TFL, one sack) is one of those players that takes advantages on one-on-one matchups. Gerald Bowman (15 tackles and one interception) is a playmaker in the secondary, as he returned an interception 36 yards earlier in the season. This unit may not be getting as much talk as the new high-powered offense, but it is playing some terrific football right now.

Florida transfer QB Tyler Murphy (307 yards, 2 TD) is the guy leading the offense this season, and so far he has had mixed results. He is barely completing 50 percent of his passes (27-of-52), while also throwing three interceptions. If the Eagles try to get into a scoring contest with USC, they probably are not going to win. However, they have the ground game to shorten the game and keep things close. The Eagles rank 25th in the country, averaging 240 yards on the ground. While he hasn’t thrown the ball very well, Murphy has done a terrific job running the ball. He has 210 rushing yards this season, while averaging 7.2 yards per carry. Tyler Rouse (101 rushing yards, 4.0 YPC, 1 TD) is a physical running back that can wear out his opponents. Josh Bordner (five catches, 82 yards, 1 TD) is a playmaker at receiver, but with the struggles of the offense, it has been difficult for him to get the ball. The defense of the Eagles is looking to bounce back from a tough loss to the Panthers. A big reason why the team struggled is because the team had some problems getting off the field. Pittsburgh converted on 6-of-15 third downs, and that wasn’t against a team that converts third downs as well as USC. The defense has lost a lot of players from last season, but the secondary is the strength of the unit. Steven Daniels and Justin Simmons each have an interception this year. The key to this game will be if the Eagles can slow the game down with the rushing game.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: