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Cardinals try to hold off Brewers on Tuesday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 9/16/2014  at  12:04:00 PM
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MILWAUKEE BREWERS (78-72)

at ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (83-67)

First pitch: Tuesday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Line: St. Louis -145, Milwaukee +135, Total: 7

A tight NL Central race continues Tuesday as the Brewers head to St. Louis to take on the division-leading Cardinals.

Milwaukee started the year as the biggest surprise in baseball and held the division lead for a majority of the year, but has fallen back to earth and lost 14 of the past 19 contests. Over the past five games the Brewers have rebounded, though, winning four times and defeating the Reds in 2-of-3 games over the weekend. They clinched the series victory with a 9-2 win in the rubber match on Sunday as they hit two homers in the game. One came off the bat of rookie 1B Matt Clark (.235 BA) who has now hit a ball out of the park in each of his past three games. St. Louis is the current leader in this division, gaining a 3.5-game lead over Pittsburgh as it has won 12 of the past 16 games. The Redbirds were dominant over the weekend as they hosted Colorado and swept them while outscoring the Rockies 14-6. OF Matt Holliday (.272 BA) has caught fire at the right time and is 10-for-25 (.400) with two home runs, 5 RBI and five runs in his past seven games. A couple of young righties will get the start on Tuesday evening when RHP Wily Peralta (16-10, 3.75 ERA) of the Brewers goes against RHP Lance Lynn (15-9, 2.73 ERA) for the host Cardinals. Milwaukee has done fairly well as a road team in 2014 while compiling a record of 37-35 (.514), but will be hard-pressed to earn another victory while in St. Louis since the club is an NL-best 47-28 (.627) in Busch Stadium. Being both in the same division, these two clubs have seen each other plenty over the past three seasons with the Cardinals owning a tremendous 33-17 (.660) edge, including 15-9 at home in that time. In the most recent series, St. Louis went to Milwaukee and took 3-of-4 games while allowing three or fewer runs to the Brewers in the three victories. Some trends to know about in this game include that Milwaukee is 23-19 (.548) as a road underdog of +100 or higher this year, but the Cardinals are an amazing 19-2 (.905) in September home games over the past two years. Neither team comes into this contest with any significant injuries.

Wily Peralta has improved over last year in a majority of his major stats, but has not become the ace that Milwaukee was hoping he would. His strikeout rate sits at an average 6.8 K/9 while he walks 2.8 batters per nine innings and has benefited from being able to keep the ball on the ground (54.5% ground-ball rate). The biggest problem for the 25-year-old is that he has trouble keeping the ball in the park as evidenced by the 23 homers he has allowed in 177.2 frames (1.17 HR/9) this season. Peralta has given his club a quality start in seven of his past 10 outings but has also blown up twice; giving up 14 runs (13 ER) on 16 hits (3 HR) over two consecutive starts (8 IP) at the end of August. Overall in his career against the Cardinals, Peralta is 4-4 with a 4.60 ERA and 1.47 WHIP, while going 3-1 when facing them this year with a quality start in each outing. OF Matt Holliday (8-for-18, 2 HR, 5 RBI) and 3B Matt Carpenter (8-for-18, 1 HR, 2 RBI) have done great against Peralta in their careers, while 1B Matt Adams and SS Jhonny Peralta have combined to go a meager 4-for-25 (.160) with five strikeouts in the matchup. The Brewers’ bullpen is 19-21 this year with a 3.66 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, while getting the save in 42-of-60 (70%) chances. Closer Francisco Rodriguez (3.18 ERA, 41 saves) is fourth in the NL in saves but has allowed six runs in his past nine outings while giving up 14 homers in 65 innings of work (1.94 HR/9).

Lance Lynn has been very consistent over the past three seasons and is on his way to a third consecutive year with a sub-4.00 ERA while getting at least 15 wins. He has done this in 2014 with a quality strikeout rate (7.9 K/9) while giving up a mere eight long balls in his 184.2 innings (0.39 HR/9) on the year. He has not allowed more than three earned runs since June 28th (13 starts) and had a sub-2.00 ERA in both July and August. In his 13 career games (9 starts) against the Brewers, Lynn is 5-2 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, while going 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA in his three outings in 2014. Plenty of Milwaukee batters have done well against Lynn, with OF Gerardo Parra (7-for-14, 2 doubles, 2 triples, 1 HR), SS Jean Segura (7-for-15, 2 RBI), OF Ryan Braun (5-for-16, 1 HR, 4 RBI) and OF Logan Schafer (3-for-8, 1 RBI) all doing well. Meanwhile, both OF Carlos Gomez (3-for-17, 9 K's) and 3B Aramis Ramirez (2-for-21, 2 K's) have struggled mightily in the matchup. The relievers for St. Louis are a combined 22-20 this season with a decent 3.65 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, while converting 52-of-67 (78%) save opportunities. Closer Trevor Rosenthal (3.22 ERA, 44 saves) is 44-for-49 (90%) in his save chances while striking out 11.4 batters per nine innings, but continues to struggle with his control (5.2 BB/9).


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