StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

Lions search for rare win over Packers Sunday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 9/21/2014  at  5:08:00 AM
  Print This Article    

GREEN BAY PACKERS (1-1)
at DETROIT LIONS (1-1)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: Detroit -3, Total: 53

The Lions host the Packers on Sunday in a game that could have major playoff implications in the NFC North division later in the year.

Aaron Rodgers’ team, fresh off a 31-24 comeback home victory over the Jets, will look to exploit the weak passing defense of Detroit, who will look to do the same to Green Bay's suspect secondary. The Lions lost 24-7 to the Panthers last week and will look to play a faster pace by throwing the ball more. Although the Packers are 15-2 SU in the past 17 meetings in this series, and 5-1 ATS over the past six matchups, when the Packers visited Ford Field last year, they were blown out 40-10 as 6.5-point underdogs. However, Rodgers missed that game with a broken collarbone, and he is 9-1 SU (7-3 ATS) all-time versus the Lions with the only loss occurring in 2010 when he left the game with an injury. Detroit is a miserable 1-8 ATS in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the past three seasons, but the team is also 7-4 ATS when coming off an Under in this same timeframe. Green Bay is 7-1 ATS off of a non-conference game during the past three years, but is a miserable 2-8 ATS as an underdog in this same timeframe. The Lions are in pretty good health for this contest with only OT LaAdrian Waddle (calf) and safeties James Ihedigbo (neck) and Don Carey (hamstring) questionable for this one. The Packers have more vital injuries with LB Brad Jones (thigh) doubtful, and OT Bryan Bulaga (knee) and CBs Casey Hayward (hamstring) and Micah Hyde (knee) both questionable.

Can the Lions produce a rare win over the Packers on Sunday? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. During the 2013 campaign, the experts combined for a 52% ATS success rate in NFL Best Bets, highlighted by Brian's 60% ATS mark (41-27-6). Scott had a 54% ATS accuracy (36-31-3) on NFL Best Bets, while Gary was 53% ATS (26-23-3). Scott also thrived with his NFL Totals, finishing at 56% (40-31), capped off by a perfect 5-0 run in the postseason. Brian started the 2014 season with a perfect 6-0 record on NFL Totals.

The Packers were down 21-3 against the Jets in their Week 2 matchup before QB Aaron Rodgers brought his team back for the 31-24 victory. Rodgers ended up with 346 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for 28 yards in the game. WR Jordy Nelson was flat-out dominant for the Packers, catching nine passes for 209 yards and a touchdown in the game. Rodgers will look to find that same success against a weak Lions’ secondary on Sunday. Green Bay is going to need to work on defending the run this season and they’ll have to do it fast. They are allowing 176.5 rushing yards per game (31st in NFL) and that could be a huge problem against a team with two quality running backs in Reggie Bush and Joique Bell. They are, however, allowing just 178.5 yards per game through the air this year (6th in NFL). That could all change with a matchup against Detroit's duo of Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson.

After a dominant offensive performance in Week 1 against the Giants where they scored 23 points with 417 total yards, the Lions could not get anything going against the Panthers last Sunday. Detroit gained only 323 total yards in a 24-7 loss in Carolina, and a lot of that had to do with them struggling in the running game. Reggie Bush and Joique Bell combined for just 16 carries in the defeat, and that type of predictability calling plays can take you out of a game in an instant. Bell did, however, catch six passes for 61 yards during the loss. Detroit will need to mix it up against the Packers in Week 3. QB Matthew Stafford threw for 291 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the loss to the Panthers, while star WR Calvin Johnson hauled in six of his 13 targets for 83 yards. He will be a much bigger factor against the Packers, having gained 1,163 yards and 12 TD in 12 career meetings with the division foe. One plus for the Lions has been their outstanding defensive play early in the season. This unit is allowing only 197.5 yards per game through the air (9th in NFL) and 57.5 yards per game on the ground (2nd in NFL). They will need to be effective against the run in order to take Eddie Lacy out of the equation. However, holding up those numbers against the pass will be extremely difficult against Rodgers.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: