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Brewers desperate for Thursday win at Cards
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 9/18/2014  at  4:59:00 AM
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MILWAUKEE BREWERS (79-73)

at ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (84-68)

First pitch: Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Line: St. Louis -135, Milwaukee +125, Total: 7

The Cardinals attempt to pad their NL Central lead when they host the Brewers on Thursday night.

Milwaukee has really fallen off in the second half of 2014, and currently sits five games behind St. Louis in the division and 2.5 games out of the second Wild Card spot. The Brewers have been trying to work their way back into the playoff picture lately though, with victories in five of their past seven games. Their pitching is what has been excelling, allowing a mere 1.8 runs per game over their past five wins. They gave up just two runs on three hits in Wednesday’s 2-0 loss. OF Carlos Gomez (.288 BA) managed two hits in the game and is 12-for-32 (.375) with 4 RBI, six runs and 4 SB over his past 10 games. The Cardinals have been tremendous with victories in 13 of their past 18 contests and have given up a mere nine runs in the past five games (1.8 runs per game). Adam Wainwright (9 IP, 7 H, 0 ER, 7 K's) was the key in Wednesday night’s shutout win, as he earned his 19th victory of the year. OF Matt Holliday (.270 BA) has four multi-hit games in his past nine contests while going 11-for-32 (.344) with two homers, 5 RBI and six runs. The pitching matchup for this contest will peg veteran RHP Kyle Lohse (12-9, 3.81 ERA) of the Brewers against RHP Shelby Miller (10-9, 3.75 ERA) for the host Cardinals. On the year, Milwaukee is 38-36 when playing on the road, while St. Louis is tied for the top home record in the National League, going 48-29 (.623) at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals have dominated this series over the past three years, going 34-18 (.654) overall (11-7 in 2014) and are 16-10 (.615) at home in that time. The Brewers have not been able to score on St. Louis lately, putting up no more than three runs in the past seven attempts against them. Trends show that the Cardinals are a woeful 1-8 this year as a favorite of -125 to -175 when Shelby Miller starts, but they are an amazing 20-3 (.870) in September home games over the past two seasons. Neither team has any significant injuries to their offense in this important late-season battle.

Kyle Lohse has been an important part of this team’s success in 2014, as he has struck out the second-most batters of his career (6.6 K/9) at the age of 35. He has coupled that with his usual great control (2.2 BB/9) to win double-digit games for the seventh time in his 14 years as a starter. His outings have been unpredictable over his past 10 starts though, as he has allowed 4+ runs four times and two or fewer runs in the other six outings. Unfortunately for him, two of the poor outings came against St. Louis, as he combined to pitch eight innings while giving up 16 runs (14 ER) on 13 hits (4 HR) and taking two losses. Overall in his career against the Cardinals, Lohse is 3-7 (4-8 team record) with a 5.12 ERA and 1.48 WHIP, and has allowed at least one homer in each of his past four starts. Plenty of hitters have done well off him, with C Yadier Molina (11-for-20, 3 doubles, 3 HR, 8 RBI) having the most success while OF Matt Holliday, OF Oscar Taveras and 2B Kolten Wong have combined to go 17-for-41 (.415) with three home runs and 12 RBI. Surprisingly, 3B Matt Carpenter has not found his stroke against the righty, going 1-for-14 with four strikeouts in the matchup. The Brewers bullpen is 20-21 this year with a 3.65 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, and has earned a save in 42-of-61 (70%) opportunities. Closer Francisco Rodriguez (42 saves, 3.14 ERA) is 42-for-47 (89%) in his save chances while striking out 9.8 batters per nine innings, but has allowed a robust 14 home runs in 66 frames (1.91 HR/9).

Shelby Miller has reached double-digit wins for the second straight season, but should be worried about his ability to strike out batters, as he went from 8.8 K/9 in 2013 to a mere 6.0 K/9 this season. He has also seen his walk rate jump to a bloated 3.7 BB/9 while benefiting from batters producing a low .254 BABIP against him. Miller has been huge late in the season though, giving his team five straight quality starts in which he has allowed only six runs over 33 innings (1.64 ERA) while his team is 4-1. Against Milwaukee in his career, Miller is a perfect 5-0 (7-0 team record) while posting a stellar 2.30 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He has allowed more than three earned runs just once. Not many players in the opponent’s offense have fared well against the righty, while both 3B Aramis Ramirez (6-for-13, 2 HR, 5 RBI) and 2B Scooter Gennett (6-for-13) have been the bright spots. Meanwhile, SS Jean Segura (0-for-15, 6 K's), OF Carlos Gomez (2-for-16, 1 HR, 5 K's) and OF Khris Davis (0-for-6, 2 K's) have all had issues in the matchup. The relievers for St. Louis have gone 22-21 this year with a 3.62 ERA and 1.22 ERA, while converting 52-of-68 (76%) save chances. Closer Trevor Rosenthal (3.31 ERA, 44 saves) has shown very poor control (5.4 BB/9) while striking out 11.3 batters per nine innings and allowing just two homers in his 68 innings of work (0.26 HR/9).


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