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No. 22 Clemson tries to knock off Winston-less FSU Saturday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 9/20/2014  at  5:43:00 AM
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CLEMSON TIGERS (1-1)
at FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (2-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Florida State -10.5, Total: 56

No. 1 Florida State, the defending BCS National Champion, kicks off its ACC season on Saturday when its hosts No. 22 Clemson, but will do so without Heisman Trophy-winning QB Jameis Winston.

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook betting preview for this matchup:

Winston was suspended for this game after shouting obscenities in the student union earlier this week, meaning little-used sophomore QB Sean Maguire (26 career passes, 2 TD, 2 INT) will be under center for Saturday's contest. The Tigers opened the season against a very tough opponent in Georgia, and were dominated by Heisman hopeful, HB Todd Gurley, who gained 293 all-purpose yards as Clemson suffered a 45-21 loss as 9.5-point underdogs. The Tigers took out their frustrations the next week against 34-point underdog South Carolina State as they scored their most points in 33 years with a 73-7 shellacking. They piled up an amazing 735 yards of offense while gaining 11.1 yards per pass and holding their opponent to a putrid 44 yards of offense. Florida State has not been as dominant over its first two victories as most would have expected, failing to cover the spread in both games. Oklahoma State got to within six points late in the fourth quarter in the Seminoles opening game, but FSU still managed to hold on by a score of 37-31 as an 18.5-point favorite. In its most recent win, Florida State was a 56.5-point favorite against The Citadel, an FCS team, allowing its opponent to rush for 250 yards in the contest while gaining 494 yards of offense themselves and finishing the game with a 37-12 victory. The Seminoles have totaled 100 points against Clemson over the past two seasons, winning each of the games SU and going 1-1 ATS. Last year this was barely a game as Florida State defeated its conference foes 51-14 and outgained the Tigers 444-203 through the air while forcing four turnovers. But since 2007, Clemson is a solid 5-2 ATS (3-4 SU) in this matchup. Bettors should know that the Tigers are 40-22 ATS (65%) after two consecutive games where they committed one or fewer turnovers since 1992, while the Seminoles have gone 14-4 ATS (78%) as a home favorite of 17.5 to 21 points over the same timeframe. On the injury front, Clemson has no significant players expected to miss this game, while Florida State may have some key defenders out as DB P.J Williams (hamstring) and DL Eddie Goldman (leg) are both questionable.

Can Clemson keep the final score close on Saturday? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season. During the 2013 season, StatFox Dave led the experts with a 55% ATS mark (38-31-2), while Gary and Brian both finished with another winning season (51% ATS). StatFox Scott saved his best for last with a 5-2 ATS mark (71%) in college football bowl Best Bets.

Clemson’s offensive numbers are a little fudged as they opened the year against a tough defensive team in Georgia and then faced a poor FCS team the following week. Nonetheless, the club has put up 47.0 PPG in the two contests and has thrown for 335 YPG (16th in nation). QB Cole Stoudt (446 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) threw for 302 yards and a touchdown against South Carolina State before letting younger players get an opportunity to participate in the blowout. Stoudt has hit on 63.3% of his passes so far while gaining 7.4 YPA. There is no clear-cut starter in the backfield for this team, as seven players have already had at least nine rushing attempts on the year. HB D.J. Howard (71 yards, 2 TD) leads the team with 16 of his own attempts while freshman HB Wayne Gallman has gained 82 yards on 11 attempts (7.5 YPC) and HB C.J. Davidson (47 yards) has a touchdown in each of the first two contests. Replacing Sammy Watkins in the passing game will be impossible, but WR Mike Williams (7 rec, 171 yards) hopes he can alleviate some of the pain, and will be helped out by the electric WR Artavis Scott who has 205 yards and two touchdowns on a mere eight catches (25.6 avg). DE Vic Beasley (6 tackles, 2 sacks) is following up his 13-sack season last year with a sack in each of the first two games, as he leads a defense that has allowed a meager 251.5 YPG (6th in FBS) to their opponents in 2014. The front four looks to wreak havoc on the inexperienced quarterback it will face in the first half.

The Seminoles have not looked as explosive as they did last year when they had the second-best scoring offense in the nation, putting up only 37.0 PPG over their first two wins while gaining 327 YPG in the air (20th in nation). With QB Jameis Winston (626 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT) not playing, FSU figures to establish the run with QB Sean Maguire under center. HB Karlos Williams (132 yards, 1 TD) has been the workhorse in the backfield, as change-of-pace RBs Mario Pender and Dalvin Cook have 136 yards on 23 attempts (5.9 YPC) with two touchdowns combined. WR Rashad Greene (15 rec, 283 yards, 1 TD) and TE Nick O’Leary (8 rec, 79 yards, 1 TD) make a tough receiving combo who are padding their draft status this year and plan on playing Sundays next year. The Florida State defense has allowed 21.5 PPG and 343 YPG of offense through their first two contests while being led by playmakers DL Mario Edwards Jr. (4 tackles, 1 sack) and LB Terrance Smith (17 tackles).


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