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Tigers try to maintain division lead Friday at K.C.
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 9/19/2014  at  11:45:00 AM
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DETROIT TIGERS (84-68)

at KANSAS CITY ROYALS (83-68)

First pitch: Friday, 8:10 p.m. ET
Line: Kansas City -115, Detroit +105, Total: 8

The closest division battle remaining kicks off its final series of the year as the Tigers take a half-game lead into a visit with the Royals.

Detroit has certainly had its ups and downs in 2014, but comes into this game as winners in seven of its past 10 games. Over that stretch the team did win a series against Kansas City, but most recently lost 2-of-3 contests to the Twins. In the rubber match on Wednesday, David Price failed to put up a quality effort as the Tigers lost 8-4 despite getting 11 hits. With a four-hit night, 1B Miguel Cabrera (.318 BA) continued to tear the cover off the ball and is 16-for-38 (.421) with four doubles, two home runs, 6 RBIs and nine runs over his past 10 games. The Royals have finally begun playing to their potential this year and currently hold the first Wild Card spot despite being a mediocre 4-6 in their past 10 contests. They were able to grab a series win at home against the White Sox to start the week though, defeating them 6-2 in the rubber match on Wednesday behind a strong start from Yordano Ventura (7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 7 K's) and rare homers by OF Lorenzo Cain (.298 BA) and SS Alcides Escobar (.277 BA). OF Norichika Aoki (.281 BA) has been nearly unstoppable at the plate with three straight games with 3+ hits, and is 18-for-40 (.450) with three doubles, 4 RBI and four runs in his past 10 games. RHP Justin Verlander (13-12, 4.81 ERA) will try to put a putrid season behind him as he starts this important game against LHP Jason Vargas (11-9, 3.41 ERA) of the host Royals. Being on the road should not faze Detroit, which is a solid 43-35 (.551, 7th in MLB) away from home while Kansas City is a mediocre 41-36 (.532, 17th in majors) in the confines of Kauffman Stadium. The Tigers have made easy work of the Royals in recent memory with a 33-20 record (.623) over the past three seasons, which includes an 11-5 edge against them in 2014 and an amazing 6-1 mark when visiting Kansas City. Some trends to keep an eye on in this one include that Detroit is 8-0 this season after nine consecutive games against division rivals, while Kansas City has gone 13-1 at home in the past three years with a money line of -100 to -125 and Jason Vargas pitching. C Alex Avila (head) is questionable for this contest on Detroit’s side of the ball, and is the only injury to keep an eye on heading into this contest.

Justin Verlander is just not the same pitcher that he was in past years and currently has his highest ERA since 2008 while leaving a mere 65.8% of runners on base and striking out only 7.0 batters per nine innings, his lowest mark since 2006. Many seem to think that his drop in velocity, which has decreased in each consecutive season since 2009, has been the cause of much of his issues, and has also made him change his pitching style as he is walking more batters (3.1 BB/9 in 2014). Verlander has only one quality start over his past six outings, but his team is surprisingly 4-2 during this crucial time of the season. Overall in his career against the Royals, Verlander is 18-7 (21-13 team record) with a 3.23 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, but has a bloated 5.57 ERA and 1.39 WHIP against them in five starts this year, while going 2-2. DH Billy Butler is 34-for-82 (.415) with five doubles, 2 HR and 15 RBI over his career against the righty, while C Salvador Perez (14-for-33, 7 doubles, 1 HR, 10 RBI) has also done well in the matchup. On the other hand, OF Alex Gordon (16-for-75, 4 doubles, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 26 K's), OF Josh Willingham (3-for-20, 11 K's), 3B Mike Moustakas (8-for-47, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 9 K's), SS Alcides Escobar (11-for-53, 5 K's), 2B Omar Infante (2-for-17, 1 HR, 5 RBI's) and OF Norichika Aoki (2-for-11, 2 K's) have all done poorly against the veteran. The Tigers bullpen has been an issue over the past few seasons and has gone 21-17 this year with a subpar 4.28 ERA and 1.49 WHIP while successfully converting 38-of-52 (70%) saves. Closer Joe Nathan (5.10 ERA, 32 saves) has really struggled with his control (4.6 BB/9) and has allowed three runs in his past two outings, including blowing a save on Tuesday against the Twins.

Jason Vargas has bounced around over the past few years, but has seemed to settle in nicely with the Royals as he is boasting a career-best ERA and has double-digit wins for the third time in four years. He is a control pitcher, striking out a meager 6.3 batters per nine innings, but has a tremendous walk rate (1.9 BB/9) and does a fine job keeping the ball in the park (0.90 HR/9). The lefty has not done too well recently though, going 1-4 with a 4.60 ERA over his past five outings while allowing double-digit hits twice. He is 3-3 (4-5 team record) with a 4.86 ERA and 1.42 WHIP against the Tigers over his career, and has been feast-or-famine against them in 2014 with two starts where he allowed a total of three earned runs while giving up 11 in the other couple. A few players on the opposing team have done very well against him with 2B Ian Kinsler (17-for-56, 6 doubles, 2 HR, 5 RBI) and C Alex Avila (5-for-16, 2 HR, 5 RBI) doing the best. Meanwhile, 3B Nick Castellanos (1-for-12, 4 K's) and OF J.D. Martinez (1-for-6, 3 K's) have not done well against the lefty. The Royals boast strong relief pitching and they have gone 26-16 (.619) with a 3.42 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, while being 48-for-59 (81%) in save chances. Greg Holland (1.54 ERA, 42 saves) is one of the elite closers in baseball and has not blown a save since July 24, while allowing just two hits and getting 11 strikeouts over his past six outings (6 IP).


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