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Reds, Cardinals wrap up series Sunday night
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 9/21/2014  at  1:48:00 AM
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CINCINNATI REDS

at ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

First pitch: Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Line: TBD

The Cardinals continue their run towards another playoffs when they host the squandering Reds on Sunday night.

Cincinnati's season is lost, as it sits 14 games behind St. Louis entering this series and has the third-worst offense (560 runs) in the league. The Reds begin the weekend on a four-game losing streak having just been swept on the road against the Cubs. Cincinnati scored only one run in the three-game sweep and failed to grab a single game with a 3-1 loss on Wednesday. OF Jay Bruce (.213 BA) has struggled all season and is 4-for-24 (.167) with seven strikeouts over his past nine contests. St. Louis is turning it on at the right time, and entering Friday has come away victorious in 14 of its past 19 games including a series win against the Brewers. Their pitching allowed only five runs over three contests against Milwaukee, finishing off the series with a 3-2 win in extra innings on Thursday. OF Matt Holliday (.271 BA) has upped his game recently with multi-hit performances in five of his past 10 contests entering Friday where he has gone 13-for-38 (.342) with two homers, 5 RBI and six runs. The pitching matchup for Sunday's contest pegs RHP Alfredo Simon (14-10, 3.35 ERA) of the Reds against RHP Lance Lynn (15-9, 2.68 ERA) for the Cardinals. Through Thursday, Cincinnati held a horrendous record of 31-47 (.397, 5th-worst in MLB) on the road while St. Louis is a stellar 49-29 (.628, T-3rd in majors) at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals hold a 29-21 (.580) edge in this series over the past three seasons while going 10-6 in 2014, including a 5-1 record at home in that time. In their last meeting, the Reds actually took 3-of-4 games at home as three of the four games went under the total.

Alfredo Simon has been solid in his first year as a full-time starter and has combated his low strikeout rate (5.8 K/9) with solid control (2.5 BB/9). His season was much better in the first half though, as he posted a 2.70 ERA over 116.2 innings while seeing that number jump to a 4.46 ERA in 68.2 frames in the second half. Simon has benefited from batters hitting .262 BABIP and was likely pitching over his head in the first part of the year. In his past two outings, Simon has allowed a mere two runs on 10 hits over 14 innings while not allowing a homer and seeing his team go 1-1. He is 2-0 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over 16 appearances (2 starts) against the Cardinals in his career. OF Jon Jay (5-for-14), 1B Matt Adams (3-for-7, 2 doubles, 1 HR, 3 RBI) and C Yadier Molina (4-for-11) have been great against the righty, while OF Matt Holliday and 2B Kolten Wong have combined to go a woeful 2-for-21 (.095) with six strikeouts in the matchup. Coming into this series, the Reds bullpen has a putrid 10-30 record (.250) with a 4.16 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, while getting the save in 41-of-60 (68%) chances. Closer Aroldis Chapman (2.25 ERA, 33 saves) has an amazing strikeout rate (17.6 K/9) while allowing just one homer in 48 frames (0.19 HR/9) with two blown saves on the year.

Lance Lynn has been one of the better starters for the Cardinals over the past three seasons with an ERA better than 4.00 each year while winning at least 15 games. Surprisingly, his strikeout rate has dropped over the past three years to 7.8 K/9 in 2014 while he has seen his control (3.2 BB/9) remain about the same. A strength he has shown this season is the ability to keep the ball in the park with a mere nine homers allowed in 191.2 innings pitched (0.42 HR/9). Lynn has not given up more than three earned runs in any of his outings since June 28 (14 starts) and has posted an ERA of 2.00 or better in each of the past three months. In his career against the Reds, Lynn has gone 6-2 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, and is 3-1 with a 3.12 ERA and a complete game against them in 2014. Struggling OF Jay Bruce may turn things around, as he is 12-for-25 (.480) with a double, two triples, two homers and 8 RBI against Lynn. On the other hand, 3B Todd Frazier (3-for-23, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 12 K's) and OF Billy Hamilton (2-for-12, 5 K's) have done very poorly in the matchup. The relievers for the Cardinals are 23-21 (.523) this year with a solid 3.59 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, and have saved 52-of-68 (77%) games before Friday. Trevor Rosenthal (3.26 ERA, 44 saves) has really struggled with his control (5.4 BB/9), but makes up for it with 11.2 K/9 while allowing two homers in 69 frames (0.26 HR/9).


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