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Unbeaten No. 8 LSU hosts 3-0 Mississippi State Saturday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 9/20/2014  at  5:12:00 AM
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MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS (3-0)
at LSU TIGERS (3-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: LSU -9.5, Total: 50

Mississippi State heads to Death Valley Saturday night to take on No. 8 LSU, as each undefeated team kicks off its SEC season.

The Bulldogs have opened the season with three consecutive wins, but still remain unranked due to the weak schedule they have played, as they were at least two-touchdown favorites in each contest. So far they are 2-1 ATS and have outscored their opposition 131-37 while forcing eight turnovers. They were able to easily cover the 14.5 points on the road against South Alabama last week, winning 35-3, as they outgained the Jaguars 514-345 and held them to a mere 57 yards on the ground. The Tigers have also started out the season undefeated while facing two easy opponents (Sam Houston State and UL Monroe) after opening the year with a comeback win over Wisconsin. They are 3-0 ATS thus far and barely covered the 30-point spread against UL Monroe with a 31-0 victory, as they held the Warhawks under 100 total yards (93) and saw their four running backs combine for 182 yards and all four touchdowns. LSU is an amazing 21-1 SU (18-4 ATS) in this matchup since 1992, and as a 6.5-point favorite on the road last year, rolled to a 59-26 win in a game where the two programs combined for over 1,000 yards of offense. The Tigers threw for 340 yards and 2 TD that day behind the arm of current pro Zach Mettenberger, who averaged 11.7 YPA. Some trends to keep an eye on in this rematch include that LSU is a meager 32-54 ATS (37%) in home games against conference opponents since 1992, while Mississippi State has gone 10-23 ATS (30%) in road games after allowing three points or less in the first half of the previous contest over the same timeframe. Injuries should not play a factor in this game, as neither team has any significant players out.

Will LSU win comfortably in this SEC battle? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season. During the 2013 season, StatFox Dave led the experts with a 55% ATS mark (38-31-2), while Gary and Brian both finished with another winning season (51% ATS). StatFox Scott saved his best for last with a 5-2 ATS mark (71%) in college football bowl Best Bets.

Mississippi State has brought a balanced offense to the table over its first three games, throwing for 266.3 YPG and rushing for 260.3 YPG, both of which are top-50 numbers in FBS. QB Dak Prescott (696 pass yards, 9 TD, 2 INT) has looked great against the weak opponents, and had four passing touchdowns in the each of the first two contests while getting 9.7 YPA and hitting on 60% of his passes this season. Prescott really can befuddle opposing defenses with his threat of running, and he has reached the century mark on the ground in each of his past two games where he has totaled 250 yards (7.8 YPC) and two touchdowns. Prescott does have some help in the backfield as well, with HB Josh Robinson (288 rush yards, 6.3 YPC, 3 TD) having at least 75 yards in all three games and scoring 2 TD last week. WR Jameon Lewis (107 rec. yards) is leading the team with 10 catches, while WR Fred Brown (104 rec. yards, 17.3 avg) has helped stretch the field. Sophomore WR De’Runnya Wilson (84 rec. yards) has caught three of his six passes in the end zone. The defense has done well against poor offenses in the early going, allowing only 12.3 PPG while being led by LB Benardrick McKinney (20 tackles, 2 sacks).

LSU has put up decent offensive numbers while doing most of their work on the ground (226.3 rushing YPG, 36th in FBS) and scoring 38.3 PPG. QB Anthony Jennings (566 pass yards, 5 TD, 1 INT) has the tough task of filling in the shoes of Zach Mettenberger and has looked solid while throwing for 10.9 YPA and raising his completion percentage in each successive game. With the ground game being the offense's main focus, the sophomore is mainly expected to keep the ball out of the other team’s hand and make the occasional big play, which he has certainly done with four of his five touchdown passes coming from more than 25 yards out. Five players have already eclipsed 20 carries in this offense with HB Kenny Hilliard (215 yards, 5.2 YPC, 3 TD) leading the charge. He has a touchdown in each game this year and has been assisted heavily by change-of-pace freshman HB Leonard Fournette (162 yards, 2 TD) who has averaged 5.2 YPC on his 31 attempts. WR Travis Dural (370 rec. yards, 30.8 avg., 4 TD) already has two touchdown grabs of 80+ yards, and has twice the number of receptions (12) than any other pass catcher. The real strength of this Tigers team is the defense that has allowed 8.0 PPG to their opponents (2nd in FBS) while pitching back-to-back shutouts and giving up only 205.7 total YPG (3rd in nation) this year. DE Jermauria Rasco (10 tackles, 2 sacks) and DB Tre’Davious White (9 tackles, 2 PD) provide a strong one-two punch as the leaders on this side of the ball.


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