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No. 24 Nebraska hopes to start 4-0 Saturday vs. Miami
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 9/20/2014  at  5:48:00 AM
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MIAMI HURRICANES (2-1)
at NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS (3-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Nebraska -7.5, Total: 55.5

No. 24 Nebraska looks to remain undefeated when it hosts Miami in a tough non-conference matchup on Saturday night.

The Hurricanes opened up the year with a poor effort against Louisville, losing 31-13 as 5-point underdogs on the road. They rebounded against some weaker opponents over the past two weeks though, scoring 41 points in each victory while being 1-2 ATS so far. They were able to cover the 14-point spread as favorites last week against Arkansas State, defeating them by three touchdowns (41-20) and getting 488 total yards of offense while holding the Red Wolves to just 93 rushing yards on 2.0 YPC. The Cornhuskers have not played any teams of note through the first three weeks and narrowly avoided a devastating loss against McNeese State two weeks ago as they pulled out a last minute victory (31-24) as large 35-point home favorites. That is the one contest they have not been able to cover in, and they dominated at Fresno State last week with a 55-19 win as 11-point favorites. They dropped 562 yards of offense in the beatdown, splitting the yards almost right down the middle between passing (282) and rushing (280). These two programs have not met since 2002 and have faced each other twice since 1992 with the home team coming away with SU and ATS victories each time. Bettors should be aware of a few trends in this game, as Miami is 8-0 ATS after a win by 17+ points since the start of 2012 while going a meager 18-36 ATS (33%) after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in two straight games since 1992. In injury news, the Hurricanes hope to get back WR Stacy Coley (shoulder), who is probable, while Nebraska hopes to add some depth to their pass catchers with WR Sam Burtch (undisclosed) probable and WR Brandon Reilly (hamstring) listed as questionable.

Can Miami put a scare in Nebraska on Saturday? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season. During the 2013 season, StatFox Dave led the experts with a 55% ATS mark (38-31-2), while Gary and Brian both finished with another winning season (51% ATS). StatFox Scott saved his best for last with a 5-2 ATS mark (71%) in college football bowl Best Bets.

Despite playing two below-average teams over their first three games, the Hurricanes have recorded only 382.7 YPG of offense while scoring 31.7 PPG. Freshman QB Brad Kaaya (693 pass yards, 9.2 YPA, 7 TD, 5 INT) has been quite erratic, throwing at least one interception in each game, but he did throw 4 TD with 342 yards on just 24 attempts (14.3 YPA) in last week’s win. HB Duke Johnson (277 rush yards, 2 TD) has had at least 900 yards rushing in each of the past two seasons and has been consistent with between 90 and 100 yards on the ground in each contest on the year. He has rushed for a touchdown in the past two games and has benefited from the emergence of freshman HB Joseph Yearby, who has 127 rushing yards (5.3 YPC) over the past two contests. Kaaya really spreads the ball all over the field with four receivers already tallying at least eight catches while WR Phillip Dorsett (284 rec. yards, 4 TD) has looked explosive in gaining 35.5 yards per catch. DL Anthony Chickillo (17 tackles, 1 sack) and DB Tracy Howard (5 tackles) have helped lead the defense that is allowing opponents to score 19.3 PPG (35th in nation) and a meager 259.7 YPG (8th in FBS).

Nebraska’s offense has been phenomenal so far with 594.3 total YPG (5th in nation) while having the eighth-best rushing attack (324.3 YPG) and scoring 47.0 PPG (10th in FBS). Under center is QB Tommy Armstrong Jr. (773 pass yards, 7 TD, 1 INT) who has picked apart these mediocre defenses while averaging 9.5 YPA and throwing at least two touchdowns in each game. His ability as a dual-threat quarterback certainly makes things tough for the opposition, as he has carried the ball 27 times for 258 yards (9.6 YPC) and two touchdowns. Also helping to propel the ground game is stud HB Ameer Abdullah (396 rush yards, 3 TD) who gained 232 yards (11.0 YPC) in the season opener while scoring a touchdown in each game. WRs Jordan Westerkamp (13 rec, 271 yards, 3 TD) and Kenny Bell (10 rec, 214 yards) have been a tough duo to defend and have accounted for 60% of the team’s yards through the air. Although the 16.7 PPG allowed ranks 21st in the nation, the number is skewed by the weak opponents that Nebraska has been playing. DL Randy Gregory (3 tackles) returned to the team last week and is one of the best linemen in the nation, which should help solidify the team as a whole.


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