StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

Patriots visit Chiefs on Monday night
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 9/28/2014  at  11:12:00 PM
  Print This Article    

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (2-1)
at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (1-2)

Kickoff: Monday, 8:35 p.m. ET
Line: New England -3, Total: 45

The Chiefs look to get back to .500 when they host the Patriots on Monday night.

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook betting preview for this matchup:

New England hosted the Raiders last Sunday and won 16-9 in a defensive slugfest. The club could play a similar game Monday night against a grind-it-out team in Kansas City. The Chiefs are coming off of a 34-15 road victory over the Dolphins, and will now look to ground-and-pound against the Patriots. New England's offensive line has not looked good thus far in allowing seven sacks, and Kansas City has some fierce pass rushers that can put serious pressure on the quarterback. These teams have not met since Nov. 21, 2011, when the Patriots beat the Chiefs 34-3 as 17-point favorites at home, but New England is 1-4 SU (but 4-1 ATS) at Arrowhead Stadium since 1992. As the coach of the Patriots, Bill Belichick is 16-5 ATS in road games against defenses that allow at least 4.5 yards per carry. Andy Reid, however, is 114-83 ATS against conference opponents since beginning his outstanding career as a head coach. RB Jamaal Charles (ankle) and S Eric Berry (ankle) are listed as questionable for the Chiefs, while New England could be without CB Alfonzo Dennard (shoulder).

Can the Patriots win their third straight game in a tough environment? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. The experts were on fire in Week 3, combining for a 13-3 ATS mark (81%), while going 8-1 (89%) in NFL Totals. StatFox Dave was 5-0 ATS in Best Bets to improve to 60% ATS (9-6) on the season. StatFox Scott was 4-0 ATS in Best Bets and 3-0 in Totals in Week 3, while StatFox Brian had his third straight perfect week of Totals at 3-0, and is now 9-0 for the season.

The Patriots are coming off of a 16-9 victory over the Raiders and their offensive line play really could have cost them the game. Tom Brady (632 pass yards, 5.5 YPA, 3 TD, 0 INT) was sacked twice in the game and had no time to throw the ball at all as he was pressured all game. He still finished the game 24-of-37 for 234 yards and a touchdown. Brady is going to have to get rid of the ball quicker against the Chiefs or he’ll end up eating dirt often on Monday. When Brady is throwing the ball this season, it’s mostly been in the direction of WR Julian Edelman (22 rec, 260 yards, 1 TD). Edelman had 10 catches for 84 yards in the win over Oakland and is a very good route runner that should be able to find holes against an underperforming Chiefs’ defense. TE Rob Gronkowski (11 rec, 116 yards, 2 TD) is also beginning to look more and more healthy by the week. He had three receptions for 44 yards and a touchdown against Oakland and played nearly half the snaps. What has been winning games for the Patriots has been their defense. New England leads the NFL in passing defense (169 YPG, 5.0 YPA) and red-zone efficiency (33%), while ranking third in total defense (273 YPG) and is tied for fourth in scoring defense (16.3 PPG). The Pats have also done a great job stopping the run during their two-game win streak, holding opponents to a mere 60.5 rush YPG on 3.0 YPC. CB Darrelle Revis (1 INT) has been everything he was hyped up to be in New England, and he should make life on Chiefs QB Alex Smith very tough Monday night.

Kansas City has gotten off to a poor start after being last season’s breakout team, but the club did collect its first win of the season in Week 3, defeating the Dolphins 34-15 on the road. QB Alex Smith (643 pass yards, 4 TD, 3 INT) was excellent in that game, going 19-of-25 for 186 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. The one negative was that he took five sacks, increasing his total to 11 for the season. Smith is not going to take many chances against a relentless Patriots’ pass defense. He will manage the offense and rely on his running game to do the heavy lifting. Starting at running back for the Chiefs could be RB Knile Davis (214 rush yards, 3.9 YPC, 3 TD) if top RB Jamaal Charles (23 rush yards, 2.6 YPC, 0 TD) can’t go because of an ankle injury. Charles is the best running back in football when healthy, but the K.C. offense has not missed a step with Davis filling in. He rushed 32 times for 132 yards and a touchdown in the win over Miami and could do very well again on Monday against a Patriots defense that allowed 191 rushing yards to those same Dolphins in Week 1. Kansas City’s defense is allowing a solid 223.7 passing yards per game (T-10th in NFL), but has surrendered 130.3 rushing yards per game (23rd in league) on a hefty 5.1 yards per carry (28th in NFL). Their performance against the Dolphins was their best of the year as a unit and they will need to carry that momentum into this matchup against the Pats. K.C. has not forced a single turnover yet this year, and New England hasn't had a giveaway since Week 1.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: