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No. 1 FSU visits unbeaten NC State Saturday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 9/26/2014  at  7:13:00 AM
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FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (3-0)
at NORTH CAROLINA STATE WOLFPACK (4-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Florida State -18.5, Total: 59

Two undefeated teams, No. 1 Florida State and North Carolina State, go head-to-head on Saturday in an attempt to keep a flawless record.

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook betting preview for this matchup:

Florida State has not had the easy run it expected when coming into the 2014 season and has yet to cover a spread (0-3 ATS). Last week against Clemson, the line started at 19.5, but quickly finished at -10.5 once it was announced that QB Jameis Winston would be suspended for the entire game after shouting obscenities in the student union. Without their star, the Seminoles just barely squeaked out a victory against the Tigers with a 23-17 overtime win despite being outgained by their opponent 407-318 in total yards and gaining a mere 27 yards (0.5 YPC) on the ground. NC State has also won each of its games, going 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS, but has faced much worse competition. In the season opener, the Wolfpack beat Georgia Southern by just a point (24-23) as 20.5-point favorites, but have since defeated their opponents by an average of 28.7 points per game. Last weekend they shut out Presbyterian 42-0 as 38-point favorites, as they gained 460 total yards. In the past two seasons in this series, NC State has been able to cover the spread each time and is 1-1 SU despite failing to score in the first half of either meeting. Last season, FSU did not cover the 35-point spread after defeating the Wolfpack 49-17 while forcing three turnovers and outgained their opponent 548-316. In the game, Winston was the star with 292 passing yards and three touchdowns (1 INT) while the team added four scores on the ground. Trends show that since 1992, the Seminoles are 35-19 ATS (65%) after two or more consecutive ATS losses, while North Carolina State is 11-3 ATS (79%) after gaining 7.25 yards per play in its previous game in that same timeframe. Injuries could hamper the Seminoles with LB Ukeme Eligwe (foot) and DL Mario Edwards (concussion) listed as questionable, while the Wolfpack have no significant injuries to report.

Can NC State keep the score relatively close on Saturday? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season. The experts went a combined 10-7 ATS (59%) last week, highlighted by StatFox Scott's 3-1 ATS mark and StatFox Gary's 2-1 ATS record.

While Florida State has been great through the air, throwing for 319.7 YPG (21st in FBS), the team has failed to get its ground game going with a mere 109.7 YPG (17th-fewest in nation) as it scores 32.3 PPG. QB Jameis Winston (626 pass yards, 3 TD, 2 INT) has been all over media of late with his one-game suspension and the team missed his leadership, as it needed a late, fourth-quarter fumble to escape past Clemson last week. Winston completed 70% of his passes over the first two wins this season while getting 9.3 YPA but threw two interceptions in a tough game to start the year against Oklahoma State. Leading the suspect backfield is HB Karlos Williams (177 rush yards, 2 TD) who has averaged 4.2 YPC and has yet to get more than 70 yards in any of the first three contests. WR Rashad Greene has been the team’s best receiver and is building off his big 2013 season (1,128 rec. yards, 9 TD) with a team-leading 24 receptions and 418 yards (17.4 avg) while scoring twice. The Seminoles defense has looked quite good so far, allowing opponents to score 20.0 PPG (30th in nation) but may be without top DL Mario Edwards (4 tackles, 1 sack) because of a concussion. In his absence, LB Terrance Smith (17 tackles) has been the leader on this side of the ball.

Facing poor defenses has allowed the NC State offense to rank 25th in total yards (502 YPG) while doing most of their work on the ground with 248.8 YPG (25th in FBS). The offense has been led by impressive performances from QB Jacoby Brissett (1,005 pass yards, 10 TD, 1 INT) who has multiple touchdown passes in each of the four games while adding 118 yards (5.1 YPC) and a touchdown to the rushing attack. Joining him in the backfield is a cast of talented runners with HB Shadrach Thornton (283 rush yards, 5 TD) leading the way, as he has double-digit attempts in 3-of-4 games and has at least one score in each of the past three contests. Joining him and doing well has been HBs Matt Dayes and Tony Creecy who have combined to rush for 437 yards (7.2 YPC) and three touchdowns. The ball is spread across plenty of receivers with five different players grabbing nine or more receptions while WR Bo Hines leads the team in both receptions (16) and yards (209). Meanwhile, HB Matt Dayes (185 yards, 3 TDs) and WR Bra’Lon Cherry (97 yards, 3 TDs) have provided the bulk of the scoring through the air so far. Through the first four games, the defense has allowed a mere 18.5 PPG (23rd in FBS) while being led by DB Juston Burris (7 tackles).


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