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No. 12 Georgia favored big over Tennessee Saturday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 9/26/2014  at  3:57:00 AM
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TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS (2-1)
at GEORGIA BULLDOGS (2-1)

Kickoff: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET
Line: Georgia -17, Total: 57.5

Tennessee opens up its 2014 SEC season Saturday with a visit to No. 12 Georgia.

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook betting preview for this matchup:

The Volunteers have had a fairly easy go of things to start off the year, defeating Utah State 38-7 as three-point favorites followed by a 34-19 victory over Arkansas State as it failed to cover the 16-point spread. The Vols' last contest was a tough one though, as they went on the road to face Oklahoma as a three-touchdown underdog and were outgained 454-313 in a 34-10 loss. Tennessee had three turnovers in the game, including one that was taken back 100 yards for a touchdown, which was a 14-point swing that essentially ended the game. Georgia has already faced two top-25 programs as it opened the year with a strong 45-21 win as a 9.5-point favorite over Clemson, but then failed to remain perfect with a close loss (38-35) at South Carolina as a 6.5-point favorite. Last week was a break from the tough schedule, when the Bulldogs dominated Troy in a 66-0 shutout as they totaled 547 total yards, including 367 yards (9.4 YPC) on the ground. Last year when these programs met, the Volunteers nearly made a big comeback as they were down 17-3 at the half and then outscored the Bulldogs 28-17, just failing to grab the win in the 34-31 overtime loss as 13.5-point underdogs. The big difference in that contest was the 238 yards that Georgia had on the ground, while Tennessee had the one turnover. Even with some fairly large spreads, the Volunteers have done well ATS and are 3-2 ATS over the past five meetings between these programs. Trends show us that Tennessee is 20-5 ATS (80%) in road games after two or more consecutive losses ATS since 1992, while the Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS after two straight games where they committed one or fewer turnovers in the past three seasons. On the injury front, the Volunteers have no significant injuries while Georgia has WR Justin Scott-Wesley (knee) and HB Keith Marshall (leg) listed as doubtful to play on Saturday.

Can Georgia cover the hefty spread against its conference rival? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season. The experts went a combined 10-7 ATS (59%) last week, highlighted by StatFox Scott's 3-1 ATS mark and StatFox Gary's 2-1 ATS record.

Tennessee is 2-1 SU (1-2 ATS) despite not being a strong offensive team, averaging 370.3 total YPG (93rd in FBS), but doing better through the air with 240.3 YPG. QB Justin Worley (721 pass yards, 6 TD, 3 INT) has played worse in each successive game since the big season opener in which he threw for 273 yards and 3 TD with 0 INT. Last week, Oklahoma’s defense was just too much for the senior, as he threw two picks and completed less than half of his attempts (48%). He was solid against Georgia last year though, going 17-for-31 with 215 yards and 1 TD (0 INT). HBs Jalen Hurd (209 rush yards, 1 TD) and Marlin Lane (137 rush yards, 1 TD) have averaged a mere 4.2 YPC this year, but Hurd was impressive in the loss to Oklahoma with 97 yards on 6.9 YPC. Three wideouts have double-digit receptions coming into this contest with sophomore WR Marquez North leading the team in catches (14), yards (173) and touchdowns (2). WR Josh Smith (135 rec. yards, 1 TD) has given them a downfield option and has a play of at least 20 yards in each of the first three contests. The defense has allowed 20.0 PPG while giving up 343 YPG (37th in nation), and is led by LB A.J. Johnson (17 tackles, 1 INT).

The Bulldogs running game has been the key to the team's success, as they rank 13th in the nation in rushing offense (304 YPG), leading to an impressive 48.7 PPG (4th in FBS). Heading the passing attack is QB Hutson Mason (419 pass yards, 4 TD, 0 INT) who has not been asked to do all that much thus far with 26 or fewer passing attempts in each of the first three games. He’s been successful in 71% of his throws on the season while getting 7.1 YPA and has been sacked only three times. The key to Georgia's offense is Heisman hopeful, HB Todd Gurley, who has 402 yards on 41 attempts (9.8 YPC) while getting into the end zone four times. He put up over 130 yards in each of the first two games, but had just six attempts in the blowout over Troy in which he averaged 12.2 YPC. HB Sony Michel (206 rush yards, 10.3 YPC, 3 TD) proved that he can be a solid option if needed in a pinch after rushing for 155 yards and three touchdowns on just 10 carries against the Trojans. WR Michael Bennett (116 rec. yards, 2 TD) has been the go-to guy through the air and leads the team with 10 receptions (11.6 avg). Georgia’s defense has allowed 19.7 PPG to its opponents (28th in nation) while ranking in the top-25 in yards allowed (318 YPG). LB Ramik Wilson (23 tackles) is the leader on this side of the ball, and is aided by rising star LB Jordan Jenkins (16 tackles, 1 sack).


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