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No. 18 BYU seeks 5-0 start Friday vs. Utah State
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 10/3/2014  at  4:13:00 AM
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UTAH STATE AGGIES (2-2)
at BYU COUGARS (4-0)

Kickoff: Friday, 10:15 p.m. ET
Line: BYU -21

No. 18 BYU Cougars hosts Utah State Friday night in an attempt to maintain a flawless record for the 2014 campaign.

Utah State has had a disappointing start to the season and while the school has earned wins as large favorites against both Idaho State and Wake Forest, it has failed to cover a spread in four contests this season. Last week the Aggies traveled to Arkansas State as 2.5-point underdogs and were unable to pull off an upset as they absorbed a 21-14 overtime loss despite outgaining their opponent 413-316 and forcing four turnovers. Over the first four games, they rank in the bottom half of the nation in nearly every category, both offensively and defensively, and will have a very tough matchup this week. BYU has been impressive thus far with four consecutive SU victories, but has failed to cover the spread in each of its past two contests. In the most recent game against Virginia on Sept. 20, the Cougars overcame an early 10-3 deficit to win 41-33 as 16-point favorites, as they were outgained 519-332 in total yards while forcing two turnovers in the contest. These two programs have played some rather low-scoring games over the past two years with BYU coming away with a 31-14 victory as a 5.5-point underdog last season and winning 6-3 back in 2012 as a 6.5-point favorite. Trends show that Utah State is an impressive 10-3 ATS (77%) over the past three seasons after playing its previous game on the road, while the Cougars are 8-2 ATS (80%) after failing to cover the spread in two of their past three contests in the same timeframe. As far as injuries are concerned, the Aggies may be without starting QB Chuckie Keeton (knee) and HB Joe Hill (ankle) who are questionable for this contest. BYU has top WR Jordan Leslie (ankle), HB Algernon Brown (ankle) and LB Bronson Kaufusi (ankle) all listed as questionable for the matchup.

Can BYU cover the hefty spread on Friday night? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season. The experts went a combined 19-17 ATS (53%) in the past two weeks, highlighted by StatFox Scott's 5-2 ATS mark and StatFox Gary's 4-3 ATS record.

Utah State distributes its offense between the running attack (154 YPG) and passing game (215 YPG) while ranking 94th among FBS schools in total yards (369 YPG). The Aggies have scored a meager 24.3 PPG (95th in nation) behind the arms of QBs Chuckie Keeton (426 pass yards, 2 TD, 4 INT) and Darell Garretson (389 pass yards, 3 TD, 2 INT). Garretson has played the bulk of the past two contests with Keeton out, and has played well, going 27-for-46 (59%) with 268 yards (5.8 YPA) and 2 TD (1 INT) in the overtime loss last week. The running back situation has been cloudy thus far with three different backs getting 20 or more attempts with HB Rashad Hall (141 rush yards, 1 TD) leading the way with 33 attempts (4.3 YPC). WR JoJo Natson has also been a big-play guy out of the backfield with 158 yards on a mere 17 attempts (9.3 YPC). Natson has also been a big part of the passing game with 172 yards on 20 catches (8.6 avg) and a touchdown while WR Hunter Sharp (305 rec. yards, 2 TD) has been the top option through the air. The defense has not looked great while allowing 25.8 PPG and giving up a fairly low 334.8 YPG (32nd in FBS). LB Zach Vigil (37 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) is the leader of the defense that will need to perform, especially with fellow all-MWC LB Kyler Fackrel out for the season.

BYU ranks among the top-50 FBS schools in total offense (449.3 YPG) this season thanks to an impressive performance so far from its ground game (230.3 YPG, 26th in FBS). QB Taysom Hill (876 pass yards, 6 TD, 3 INT) has improved from last season, as he is completing 66.1% of his passes for 7.2 YPA and was a solid 13-for-23 (56.5%) with 187 yards and 2 TD (0 INT) in the team's last game two weeks ago. Hill's biggest threat does not come from his arm though, but rather his legs that have helped him gain 428 rushing yards (5.4 YPC) and 7 TD through the first four games. He leads the team in rushing, while HB Jamaal Williams (296 pass yards, 3 TD) is the top running back, averaging 4.9 YPC in three contests. Williams performed exceptionally well two weeks ago against Houston as he picked up 139 yards on 28 attempts (5.0 YPC) and two touchdowns. WR Jordan Leslie (227 rec. yards, 1 TD) is the top guy in the passing game and could miss this game, leaving WR Mitch Matthews (134 rec. yards, 2 TD) as the No. 1 option. The defense has been impressive this season, as it has allowed 18.8 PPG (25th in FBS) while giving up 364.3 YPG. DB Craig Bills (26 tackles, 1 INT) and LB Alani Fua (24 tackles, 1 sack) have looked impressive amongst a defense that has proven to be full of playmakers.


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