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No. 19 Nebraska faces stiff test at No. 10 MSU Saturday
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Published: 10/4/2014  at  5:16:00 AM
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NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS (5-0)
at MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (3-1)

Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Michigan State -7, Total: 59.5

No. 10 Michigan State gets its Big Ten season kicked off on Saturday night, as it hosts undefeated No. 19 Nebraska.

Last season, Michigan State went to Lincoln and defeated the Cornhuskers, 41-28. The Spartans were outgained 392-361, but won the game in large part because they had the ball for nearly 39 minutes and forced five Nebraska turnovers. MSU QB Connor Cook, who had 193 passing yards and 1 TD in last season’s meeting, has emerged as one of the elite passers in the country. The Spartans defense has been great this year, and the team is 6-0 ATS the past two seasons after allowing 17 points or less in two consecutive games. Nebraska has looked very good in the early part of the season, and is coming off a 45-14 victory against Illinois in the conference opener. However, the Cornhuskers have struggled on the road against ranked teams, having never beaten a ranked team in Big Ten play. The last time Nebraska has won on the road versus a ranked team was at Oklahoma State in 2010 when it was still a member of the Big 12. In last year’s matchup, Huskers RB Ameer Abdullah was able to have a productive day (123 rush yards) despite the loss. The Cornhuskers have been very good against the Spartans though, going 5-1 (SU and ATS) in the past six matchups. Although Nebraska is 11-2 ATS after scoring 31+ points in five straight games since 1992, Michigan State is 14-1 ATS in this same timeframe after allowing 450 total yards or less in a two-game stretch.

Which team will pick up the crucial Big Ten victory on Saturday night? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season. The experts went a combined 19-17 ATS (53%) in the past two weeks, highlighted by StatFox Scott's 5-2 ATS mark and StatFox Gary's 4-3 ATS record.

The Cornhuskers enter this game ranked 3rd in FBS rushing (354.8 YPG) and 7th in scoring (45.4 PPG), but only 82nd in passing (217.8 YPG). Tommy Armstrong Jr. (1,052 passing yards, 10 TD, 3 INT) has shown that he has the ability to make plays with his arm. With defenses so focused on the run game, he is going to have some opportunities to attack down the field. While he has shown he can be a solid passer, Armstrong is at his best when he is running the ball (50 carries, 420 yards, 2 TD). He does a great job of running the read option, which makes one of the elite running backs in the country, RB Ameer Abdullah (114 carries, 833 yards, 8 TD), even more difficult to stop. He has emerged as one of the top playmakers in the country, as evidenced by a game-winning touchdown catch late against McNeese State in Week 2. He is a very patient runner that sets up his blocking, but he also does a nice job of pass protecting. WRs Kenny Bell (19 rec, 389 yards, 2 TD) and Jordan Westerkamp (16 rec, 316 yards, 3 TD) do a great job of making tough catches. Westerkamp has emerged as the big-play threat for the team, as the defenses tend to focus on the taller Bell. The Nebraska defense has been solid as well, allowing only 19.0 PPG (26th in nation). The leading tackler on the team is DB Nate Gerry (30 tackles, 1 INT, 1 FF). As a sophomore, Derry figures to be matched up with Michigan State wide receiver Tony Lippett a lot. DE Randy Gregory (17 tackles, 4.5 sacks) is the leading pass rusher for the Cornhuskers, and his play will be key considering MSU's Connor Cook has shown a tendency to put the ball up in the air if pressured. But few teams have been able to get after Cook.

The Spartans have bounced back nicely since losing to the Oregon. In the past two games, Michigan State has averaged 64.5 PPG in its two victories. The offense currently ranks 3rd in the country in the scoring (50.5 PPG), 20th in rushing (252 YPG) and 48th in passing (263 YPG). QB Connor Cook (837 pass yards, 9 TD, 2 INT) may not have the biggest numbers, but he has also been taken out early in the game because of the lead. Cook is a mobile quarterback that can get outside the pocket, but he does that to allow his receivers more time to get open. While the Spartans' passing game has the potential to put up a lot of points, the ground game is where Michigan State likes to get things started. RB Jeremy Langford (37 carries, 151 yards and 3 TD against Nebraska last season) is a physical runner that gets stronger as the game goes on. Langford (62 carries, 340 yards, 3 TD) has been similar to Cook as he is not getting the amount of carries that was expected entering this season, but now that conference play is here, look for his numbers to increase. Top WR Tony Lippett (22 catches, 421 yards, 6 TD) is one of the most explosive players in the country with touchdown catches of 64 and 71 yards on the season. For Michigan State’s offense to take it to the next level, it needs another receiver to emerge. TE Josiah Price (9 catches, 124 yards, 2 TD) is the second leading receiver on the team, and he will continue to see his targets increase as defenses double-team Lippett. While the offense of the Spartans has improved, the defense is a very talented unit. The defense ranks 35th in the country in points allowed (20.3 PPG), but 46 of the 81 points the unit has given up were against Oregon. The defense is led by one of the top defensive linemen in the country in senior DE Shilique Calhoun (9 tackles, 2 sacks). He demands a double-team, and has shown the ability to take his play to another level in crucial games. S RJ Williamson (19 tackles) is the leading tackler on a team that flies to the football. Very rarely does any one Spartans player make a tackle by himself, and that will be a key in a game against Abdullah and Nebraska's potent ground game.


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