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Top-seeded Nationals open NLDS on Friday vs. Giants
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 10/3/2014  at  8:18:00 AM
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SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (89-74)

at WASHINGTON NATIONALS (96-66)

National League Division Series - Game 1
First pitch: Friday, 3:05 p.m. ET
Line: Washington -180, San Francisco +170, Total: 6.5

After earning the top record in the National League during the regular season, the Nationals open off their 2014 postseason on Friday afternoon when they host the Giants in Game 1 of the NLDS.

San Francisco had a strong regular season in which it finished out the year six games behind the NL West-winning Dodgers and went an even 4-4 over the final eight games of the year. The Giants faced the Pirates in the NL Wild Card game and had no problem getting the victory as starter Madison Bumgarner put together a masterful performance (9 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 10 K's) and was backed by 11 hits from his offense, including a grand slam from SS Brandon Crawford. C Buster Posey (.311 BA) was 2-for-5 with an RBI and run scored in the victory which followed a regular season where he ranked 11th in the league in batting average and struck out in a mere 11.4% of his at-bats. The Nationals dominated the NL East, beating out the Mets and Braves by an incredible 17 games while winning 17 of their final 22 games to remain hot going into the postseason. No player on the offense had a truly phenomenal season, but three different hitters (Denard Span, Jayson Werth, Anthony Rendon) had 37 or more doubles while 1B Adam LaRoche (.259 BA) hit a team-leading 26 homers with 92 RBIs. RHP Jake Peavy (7-13, 3.73 ERA) was acquired at midseason and will get the start in this important contest for San Francisco, while RHP Stephen Strasburg (14-11, 3.14 ERA) gets the call for the host Nationals. On the year, the Giants are strong 44-38 (.537, 8th in majors) when playing on the road, while Washington is 51-30 (.630, T-2nd in MLB) in front of its hometown faithful. Over the past three seasons, the Nationals have owned this series with a 13-6 edge, which includes being 7-2 at home in that time. This year they won five of seven meetings with San Francisco. Some trends to consider when betting include that Washington is a mere 3-12 (.200) with an OBP of .375 or better over its past five games in the past two seasons, while the Giants are a meager 15-26 (.366) after two or more consecutive Overs this year. As far as injuries are concerned, San Francisco will be without the services of OF Angel Pagan (back), OF Michael Morse (oblique) and 2B Marco Scutaro (back), while Washington’s only injury to its offense is OF Nate McLouth (shoulder).

Jake Peavy was having a very poor start to the year with the Red Sox, going just 1-9 with a 4.72 ERA in his 20 starts before the trade. After joining the Giants, everything changed as he proceeded to go 6-4 with a 2.17 ERA in 12 starts while striking out 6.4 batters per nine innings and showing great control (1.9 BB/9). One other positive to take from the 2014 campaign was that he lasted at least 30 starts for sixth time in his 13 seasons at the major-league level. San Francisco won its final six games of the season with Peavy starting as he posted a 1.44 ERA while allowing one homer in his five September outings (31.1 IP). His career against the Nationals has not been too great, though, as he has gone 3-5 (5-6 team record) with a 4.09 ERA and 1.28 WHIP while earning a loss in his one start (5.1 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 7 K's) facing them over the past four years. Both 1B Adam LaRoche (5-for-14, 3 HR, 7 RBI) and OF Denard Span (7-for-20, 5 doubles) have torched Peavy, while OF Jayson Werth (3-for-16, 1 HR, 8 K's) has struggled in the matchup. Peavy's career postseason numbers have been atrocious, as he's 0-3 with a robust 9.27 ERA and 1.93 WHIP in his five playoff starts. The Giants bullpen is an outstanding 32-14 (.696) with a 3.01 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, and is 46-for-64 (72%) in save opportunities. Closer Santiago Casilla (1.70 ERA, 19 saves) has benefited from hitters going a woeful .211 BABIP against him, as he had a low strikeout rate (6.9 K/9) for a closer.

Stephen Strasburg has increased his workload in each of the past three years, getting a career-high 34 starts in 2014 while pitching 215 frames and striking out a hefty 10.1 batters per nine innings. He parlayed his strikeouts with incredible control (1.8 BB/9) while he allowed 23 homers (0.96 HR/9). He was an absolute stud over his final three starts of the year, going 3-0 while pitching 20 scoreless frames on 10 hits with a 19:3 K/BB ratio. Strasburg has never pitched in the postseason, but is a perfect 3-0 (4-1 team record) with a 3.10 ERA and 1.17 WHIP when facing the Giants in his career, but did poorly the last time he faced them, going four innings and allowing five runs on eight hits (2 HR) in a no-decision. C Buster Posey (5-for-13, 1 double) has been very productive in his at-bats against the righty, while 1B Brandon Belt and 3B Pablo Sandoval have combined to go 4-for-18 with seven strikeouts. The relievers for Washington are 26-17 (.605) this year with a strong 3.00 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, while going 45-for-61 (74%) in save chances. Drew Storen (1.12 ERA, 11 saves) was great as the closer to finish the season while showing great control (1.8 BB/9) and allowing two homers in his 56.1 frames (0.32 HR/9).


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