StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

Tigers seek payback at Orioles in Friday's Game 2
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 10/3/2014  at  8:42:00 AM
  Print This Article    

DETROIT TIGERS (90-73)

at BALTIMORE ORIOLES (97-66)

American League Division Series - Game 2
Baltimore leads series 1-0
First pitch: Friday, 12:05 p.m. ET
Line: Detroit -105, Baltimore -105, Total: 7.5

After getting blown out in Game 1 of the ALDS, the Tigers look to even up the series against the Orioles on Friday afternoon.

Detroit won the AL Central division thanks to an offense that ranked second in runs (757) while jacking 155 HR, which helped the team to a 6-4 record over the final 10 games of the year. In Thursday’s embarrassing 12-3 loss, they allowed eight runs in the eighth inning after keeping the game close behind solo homers from DH Victor Martinez, OF J.D. Martinez and 3B Miguel Cabrera. They did not do too much other than that though, going 0-for-2 with runners in scoring position while striking out 10 times. The Orioles had a field day with the AL East in the regular season and continued their winning ways on Thursday as they tallied 12 hits in the 12-3 victory while going an impressive 6-for-11 with RISP and getting homers from OF Nelson Cruz and SS J.J. Hardy. Cruz was impressive throughout the entire season with a league-leading 40 home runs while driving in the fourth-most runs (108). Looking to help tie up this series for Detroit will be RHP Justin Verlander (15-12, 4.54 ERA) as he faces LHP Wei-Yin Chen (16-6, 3.54 ERA) of the host Orioles. With Thursday’s road loss, the Tigers dropped to 45-37 (.549, 7th in majors) when playing away from home while the Orioles improved their record at Camden Yards to 51-31 (.622, T-4th in MLB). Over the past three seasons, the Tigers hold a slight 10-9 edge against their opponent while winning five of seven meetings against them in 2014. In injury news, Detroit has no significant omissions to their offense, as Baltimore will be without 3B Manny Machado (knee) and C Matt Wieters (elbow) for the rest of the season, while 1B Chris Davis remains suspended.

Justin Verlander had a very disappointing 2014 season as he posted his highest ERA since 2008 while striking out a mediocre 7.0 batters per nine innings. Much of his other numbers remained the same, as he allowed less than one homer per nine innings (0.79 HR/9) and pitched more than 200 frames for the eighth consecutive season. Verlander did have some bad luck though, with batters hitting .317 BABIP against him while he left 66.8% of runners on base. When facing Baltimore in his career (15 starts), he is 9-2 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, and has allowed five homers and 15 runs over his past four starts (26 IP). No batter on the Orioles roster has hit better than .250 against Verlander while both SS J.J. Hardy (8-for-34, 1 double, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 6 K's) and OF Alejandro De Aza (7-for-31, 1 double, 1 triple, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 10 K's) have been the most productive in the matchup. Verlander has strong career playoff numbers (7-5, 3.28 ERA, 1.07 WHIP), and has been outstanding in his past two postseasons (2012 and 2013), going 4-2 with a 1.40 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 and 6.7 K-to-BB ratio (60 K's, 9 BB's) over seven starts. Overall during the regular season, Detroit’s bullpen was dreadful, going 22-17 (.564) with a 4.29 ERA and 1.48 WHIP, while converting only 41-of-57 (72%) save opportunities. Closer Joe Nathan (4.81 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 35 saves) walked far too many batters (4.5 BB/9) in 2014 while being 35-for-42 (83%) in his save chances. Tigers relievers were absolutely shelled in Thursday's Game 1, combining for a pitching line of: 0.2 IP, 5 H, 7 R, 6 ER, 2 BB's, 0 K's.

Wei-Yin Chen has looked better each year in the big leagues and had career-best numbers in wins (16), walk rate (1.7 BB/9) and home runs allowed (1.11 HR/9), while striking out 6.6 batters per nine innings in 2014. He has never been a shutdown pitcher, but always seems to allow his team a chance to win the game and posted a solid 2.05 ERA while allowing just one homer in five September starts (30.2 IP). Chen has faced the Tigers only two times over his career, going 1-0 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, while allowing two homers and walking four in 11 frames. With such little experience against this team, Chen has not had a chance to face too many of the hitters, while 2B Ian Kinsler (3-for-10, 2 doubles) is the only player with double-digit at-bats against him. In limited time, 3B Miguel Cabrera and OF Torii Hunter have combined to go a poor 2-for-8 with two strikeouts against the lefty. Chen will be making his second career postseason start, and he hopes to pitch as well as he did in the 2012 ALDS versus the Yankees when he allowed only one earned run in 6.1 innings and picked up the win. The Orioles’ bullpen was stellar during the regular season, going 28-21 (.571) with a 3.10 ERA and 1.16 WHIP while being 53-for-72 (74%) in save opportunities. Closer Zach Britton (1.65 ERA, 37 saves) blew four saves in the regular season while forcing batters into groundballs 75.3% of the time and left 82.3% of runners on base. Baltimore relievers shined in their four innings in Game 1, allowing only one run on four hits and two walks with four strikeouts.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: