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UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Story
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Published: 10/4/2014  at  3:54:00 AM
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UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Story

Saturday, Oct. 4 – 5:00 p.m. ET
Stockholm, Sweden

Gunnar Nelson (13-0-1) vs. Rick Story (17-8)

5-Round welterweight title bout
Line: Nelson -330, Story +250

Gunnar Nelson looks to continue his march up the welterweight ladder on Saturday as he takes on Rick Story in Stockholm, Sweden at UFC Fight Night.

Nelson enters this match undefeated, with his only non-victory being a draw in his first career fight. In his last match on July 19, he defeated Zak Cummings, showing his submission abilities by ending the match with a rear naked choke. At 26 years old, the Iceland native is seen as a guy that could potentially contend for the welterweight title. He is incredibly quick, taking advantage of an opponent if he gets off balance. The most impressive thing about Nelson is his versatility at such a young age. He can win a fight in any different way, and that will make things difficult for Story to get a victory. The 30-year-old from Tacoma, WA has been in nearly twice the amount of professional fights. In his last victory against Leonardo Mafra on July 16, he won by arm-triangle choke in the second round. Although Story has the experience advantage, the talent of Nelson will be too much. Look for NELSON to take control from the beginning and win this match fast.

Nelson has 13 career victories, with eight of them coming by way of submission. He also has four wins by knockout with his other coming by decision. While he does not have the takedown average of his opponent (3.00 for Story, compared to 2.28 for Nelson), he is much more accurate when attempting the takedown (71 percent, compared to 54 percent for Story). Nelson also has a takedown defense percentage of 100. That will be huge in this fight because Story will look to try and take him down. Not only does Nelson do a great job of defending against the takedown, he also uses that defense to set himself up for the submission. For Nelson to truly start to make some noise in the welterweight class, this is a fight that he has to win convincingly. However, Story is the type of veteran that makes it difficult to get the victory.

Story has 17 wins in his career, with nine of them coming by decision. He also has four wins by both knockout and submission. Striking will be an advantage for Story, as he averages 3.46 significant strikes per minute. Compare that to Nelson's 2.43 clip, and Story should look to keep this fight on his feet. Conditioning of Story is something to keep an eye on in this fight. While he has nine wins by decision, seven of his eight losses have come by judge’s decision. This is the type of fight that Story must get off to a fast start, and not allow Nelson to get comfortable. If that happens, it could be over quickly.


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