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2014-15 NBA preview: Southeast Division
By: Staff Writer - StatFox
Published: 10/1/2014  at  12:00:00 PM
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StatFox continues its run of previewing all six NBA divisions in the next six weeks before the regular season tips off on Tuesday, Oct. 28. Next up is the Southeast Division, which the Miami Heat won by 10 games last season. However, with LeBron James now back in Cleveland, the Washington Wizards are the favorites to win the Southeast this season.

SOUTHEAST DIVISION

ATLANTA HAWKS

2013-14 SU record: 41-48 SU (46.1%), 18th in NBA
2013-14 ATS record: 41-46-2 ATS (47.1%), 21st in NBA
Odds to Win 2014-15 Southeast Division: 10-to-1
Odds to Win 2014-15 Eastern Conference: 35-to-1
Odds to Win 2014-15 NBA Championship: 75-to-1

GUARDS
Considering he was almost gone a year ago, the Hawks are thankful JEFF TEAGUE is still in town. He may never be a great shooter, but he gets wherever he wants on the floor . . . KYLE KORVER is still the NBA’s premier shooter, and he’s shown no signs of relinquishing that title . . . THABO SEFOLOSHA gives the Hawks a defensive option to complement Korver. He looked worn down last season though, eventually falling out of OKC’s rotation . . . KENT BAZEMORE gives Atlanta some more offensive firepower off the bench . . . DENNIS SCHRODER showed flashes of that Rajon Rondo Lite promise last year. Don’t be surprised to see him paired with Teague in some lineups . . . There’s no guarantee JOHN JENKINS will ever be the same after back surgery.

FORWARDS
PAUL MILLSAP has developed into a capable co-alpha, along with Jeff Teague. In addition to his low-post work, he’s developed a three-point shot and the ability to work off the dribble . . . DeMARRE CARROLL is trying to add a three-point shot to his repertoire. It would give him a big boost in offensive value to go along with his defense and all-around hustle . . . ADREIAN PAYNE will provide some much-needed depth at the 4 and 5 spots. He’s NBA-ready, especially with his ability to pull opposing big men away from the basket with his shooting . . . MIKE MUSCALA gives them another big man who can shoot it, but he’s not athletic enough to hold his own in the NBA.

CENTERS
Will AL HORFORD ever stay healthy? He’s an All-Star when he is. His recent injuries have been a bit fluky, but it’s going to be tough to trust him . . . PERO ANTIC proved to be a capable stretch-5 last year, but the arrival of Payne will likely push him out of the rotation.

StatFox Take: This team was excellent until Al Horford went down with an injury last season, and they’ve only gotten better since then. They move the ball very well and have plenty of guys who can do their part scoring the basketball. If Horford can stay healthy, the Hawks are a sure-fire playoff team with a puncher’s chance of winning the division, but not the conference.

CHARLOTTE HORNETS

2013-14 SU record: 43-43 SU (50.0%), 16th in NBA
2013-14 ATS record: 48-35-3 ATS (57.8%), 2nd in NBA
Odds to Win 2014-15 Southeast Division: 11-to-5
Odds to Win 2014-15 Eastern Conference: 25-to-1
Odds to Win 2014-15 NBA Championship: 60-to-1

GUARDS
LANCE STEPHENSON started chucking and padding stats after missing the All-Star team last season, fueling Indiana’s collapse. He’s a potentially solid role player, but if he tries to be the alpha for the Hornets, it could be a long season . . . KEMBA WALKER has become a solid playmaker, though he’ll lose some touches while playing alongside Stephenson . . . The Hornets seem to be done with GERALD HENDERSON, who will stay in the rotation, but see a reduced role with all the Hornets’ offseason acquisitions . . . GARY NEAL can play both guard spots as a high-scoring sixth man . . . P.J. HAIRSTON needs to stay out of trouble off the court if he’s to have any chance of becoming a three-point specialist off the bench . . . BRIAN ROBERTS steps in as a No. 3 point guard.

FORWARDS
Charlotte reloaded in the frontcourt, but MICHAEL KIDD-GILCHRIST will likely claim a starting job due to his defense. It’s probably time to accept that MKG will never have much of an offensive game . . . CODY ZELLER will have every opportunity to grab a starting job early on. Unfortunately, his inability to score in traffic limits his effectiveness . . . MARVIN WILLIAMS will see major minutes at both forward spots. He’s a capable defender who has added a three-point shot to his repertoire . . . He’s still a teenager, so he may not carve out major minutes this year, but NOAH VONLEH has by far the most upside among their 4’s and 5’s. He’s a potentially elite stretch-4 . . . JEFF TAYLOR’s Achilles is close to 100 percent. He has a shot to re-claim a rotation spot.

CENTERS
AL JEFFERSON is a flawed player, but he gives Charlotte exactly what the team is looking for: A low-post threat on the offensive end of the court. Like Walker, he’ll also suffer a bit with Stephenson coming in, but he’s still the focal point of this offense . . . He’s not quite a bust because he can defend, but BISMACK BIYOMBO hasn’t shown any semblance of an offensive game.

StatFox Take: Last season, Charlotte surprised a lot of people by making it to the playoffs but the club is now expected to play well. The Hornets now have Lance Stephenson as their top guard and some new pieces in their supporting cast. This should be a tough defensive team with plenty of scoring options. They are a contender to win this division and a darkhorse to come out of the Eastern Conference.

MIAMI HEAT

2013-14 SU record: 67-35 SU (65.7%), 4th in NBA
2013-14 ATS record: 48-51-3 ATS (48.5%), 16th in NBA
Odds to Win 2014-15 Southeast Division: 4-to-1
Odds to Win 2014-15 Eastern Conference: 20-to-1
Odds to Win 2014-15 NBA Championship: 60-to-1

GUARDS
He’s a shell of his former self, but the Heat will have to squeeze more regular-season minutes out of DWYANE WADE. His effectiveness could depend on whether or not he finally develops a three-point shot . . . The point guard situation is getting muddied, but the Heat dug deep to re-sign MARIO CHALMERS. He’ll top the PG depth chart again . . . NORRIS COLE is likely too small and too erratic to ever be a starter, but he’ll continue to play solid minutes with the second unit . . . The Heat seemed to grab SHABAZZ NAPIER on draft night because he’s a LeBron James favorite. Now that James is gone, the rookie could be the odd man out in the point guard rotation. He’ll have to overcome subpar measurables.

FORWARDS
LUOL DENG is most certainly not LeBron James, and he won’t fill anything resembling James’ new role. He does give them a strong role player, a defensive stopper and secondary scorer . . . JOSH McROBERTS will facilitate the offense at times and generally serve as a floor-spacing, stretch-4. Miami is built to go small with him and Chris Bosh up front . . . DANNY GRANGER is trying to reinvent himself after an injury-filled couple of seasons. He can play both forward spots and might fit best as a stretch-4 in head coach Erik Spoelstra’s system . . . UDONIS HASLEM is essentially a mascot during the regular season . . . JAMES ENNIS could break into the rotation later this season. He was tremendous in Summer League play.

CENTERS
CHRIS BOSH is the best player on this team by a significant margin. He’ll be the focal point of the offense most nights and should flirt with the 20-10 numbers he used to put up in Toronto . . . CHRIS ANDERSEN will often pair with Bosh in the frontcourt, taking some of the defensive heat off Bosh against bigger lineups.

StatFox Take: The Heat lost LeBron James, but they aren’t going to just fade away easily. This team still has Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. They also signed Luol Deng, Josh McRoberts and Danny Granger this offseason. These guys care about winning and definitely have enough talent to take the division. If Bosh can re-establish himself as a go-to scorer then this team could win the Eastern Conference.

ORLANDO MAGIC

2013-14 SU record: 23-59 SU (28.0%), 28th in NBA
2013-14 ATS record: 34-45-3 ATS (43.0%), Last in NBA
Odds to Win 2014-15 Southeast Division: 75-to-1
Odds to Win 2014-15 Eastern Conference: 100-to-1
Odds to Win 2014-15 NBA Championship: 200-to-1

GUARDS
VICTOR OLADIPO, who will miss the first four weeks of season with a facial fracture suffered in a late October practice, will play off the ball more, allowing him to slash from the wing. It’s a more natural role for him . . . With Jameer Nelson jettisoned, ELFRID PAYTON will step in as the starter at the point. He has an enormous transition from the Sun Belt Conference, but the quickness and athleticism are there . . . EVAN FOURNIER never found consistency in Denver, but could be a valuable wing shooter on a team that needs it . . . BEN GORDON was signed with a very “tradeable” contract in mind. The Magic are hoping he shoots well enough to draw some suitors . . . LUKE RIDNOUR is a veteran insurance policy behind Payton . . . WILLIE GREEN can be an effective second-unit player . . . ROY DEVYN MARBLE seems like a D-Leaguer.

FORWARDS
The Magic brought in CHANNING FRYE to provide some floor spacing and a veteran presence, both much-needed . . . TOBIAS HARRIS will likely have to play some more small forward. He has the offensive skill set to do it, but defense will continue to be an issue . . . He can play both forward spots, and AARON GORDON should be one of the league’s better defensive forwards right off the bat. But for now, his offense is limited to dunking . . . It’s a big year for MAURICE HARKLESS, who has yet to establish himself as a rotation-caliber player. With Harris and Gordon capable of playing the 3, Harkless could lose major minutes . . . ANDREW NICHOLSON has a ways to go after a disappointing second season. He’s likely on the outside of this rotation.

CENTERS
NIKOLA VUCEVIC is a cornerstone player in Orlando because he’s big, and he does everything just well enough. He’s not a game-changer on either side of the court . . . KYLE O’QUINN has had some good moments in garbage-time games the past two seasons. It’s enough to keep him on the roster.

StatFox Take: The Magic have accumulated a bunch of talented players and athletes through the draft. They also signed Channing Frye, who should help them as a pick-and-pop big man. This team has a lot of similarities when compared to last season's Phoenix Suns. They are going to play an up-tempo brand of basketball and compete every night. They have no chance of winning the division or Eastern Conference, but they could win at least 10 more games than they did last season.

WASHINGTON WIZARDS

2013-14 SU record: 50-43 SU (53.8%), 14th in NBA
2013-14 ATS record: 49-42-2 ATS (53.8%), 7th in NBA
Odds to Win 2014-15 Southeast Division: 6-to-5
Odds to Win 2014-15 Eastern Conference: 15-to-1
Odds to Win 2014-15 NBA Championship: 40-to-1

GUARDS
JOHN WALL has improved tremendously over the past two seasons. His physical skills are off the chart, and now he’s significantly cut back on head-scratching mistakes . . . It appears that BRADLEY BEAL is becoming the perfect running mate for Wall in the short and the long term. He continues to develop off-the-dribble skills to go along with his shooting. His broken wrist is expected to fully heal by late November . . . ANDRE MILLER is in more of a mentor role in Washington. He’s 38 and averaged less than 17 minutes per night last season . . . GLEN RICE JR. tore up Summer League, but it’s unlikely the gunner will become an efficient scorer . . . GARRETT TEMPLE gives them a defense-first option off the bench, but his playing time will be minimal again.

FORWARDS
PAUL PIERCE takes Trevor Ariza’s spot at the 3. He’ll have much more space to work in, not that he’s ever needed it . . . The Wizards will likely play it safe with NENE HILARIO’s minutes during the regular season again. They’ll need him fresh for the playoffs, and they have enough frontcourt depth to do it . . . Back surgery is going to keep MARTELL WEBSTER out for a huge chunk of the season. He’s a question mark even after he returns . . . After a lost rookie season, OTTO PORTER should be able to break into this rotation, especially with Webster out . . . KRIS HUMPHRIES will provide some rebounding and energy behind Nenê . . . It's incredible that DREW GOODEN is still employed.

CENTERS
MARCIN GORTAT made beautiful pick-and-roll music with Wall last year. There’s no reason that shouldn’t continue. Gortat is a fringe All-Star . . . DeJUAN BLAIR can mix it up for 20 minutes per night, especially against smaller 5’s.

StatFox Take: The Wizards made their presence felt in last year’s Eastern Conference playoffs and they should only improve in 2014-2015. John Wall and Bradley Beal have another year of development under their belts and the team brought in Paul Pierce to replace Trevor Ariza. They have a solid mix of youth and veteran presence and they are a good value at 15-to-1 to win the Eastern Conference.

All NBA Previews

ATLANTIC Division
CENTRAL Division
SOUTHEAST Division
NORTHWEST Division - Wed, Oct. 8
SOUTHWEST Division - Wed, Oct. 15
PACIFIC Division - Wed, Oct. 22

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