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Colts try to extend win streak Thursday at Texans
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 10/9/2014  at  6:13:00 AM
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INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (3-2)
at HOUSTON TEXANS (3-2)

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Line: Indianapolis -2.5, Total: 45.5

The Colts look to win their fourth straight game when they hit the road for a Thursday night matchup with the division foe Texans.

Indianapolis is coming off a 20-13 home victory over the Ravens, thanks to an outstanding defense that held its opponent to just 287 total yards of offense. The Colts will face a Houston team that is struggling offensively after having just lost 20-17 in overtime in Dallas. The Texans ran the ball effectively (176 yards) in that game, but QB Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for just 154 yards with no touchdowns and one interception. Indianapolis has won-and-covered in each of the past three meetings between these teams, as Houston's last victory in this series (both SU and ATS) came on Dec. 16, 2012, when it won 29-17. The Colts are 20-4 SU against the Texans, but 2-6 ATS in their past eight meetings on the road. Seven of the past nine games played between these teams in Houston have gone Over the total. Indianapolis has three major absences from this game to deal with in LB Robert Mathis (Achilles), who is out for the season, suspended DB LaRon Landry and DL Arthur Jones (ankle), who is questionable.

Which team will pick up the crucial win in this division clash? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. The experts have been sizzling over the past three weeks, combining for a 33-13 ATS mark (72%). StatFox Scott is 83% ATS (10-2) in Best Bets during this timeframe, and 65% ATS (13-7) on the season, while StatFox Dave is 79% ATS in Best Bets during these three weeks to improve to 63% ATS (15-9) on the season. StatFox Brian has gone (70% ATS) (7-3) in NFL Best Bets since Week 3, and continues to roll in NFL Totals with an (80%) mark (12-3) for the season.

The Colts started the season 0-2, but are now back over .500 after winning three straight games. QB Andrew Luck (1,617 pass yards, 14 TD, 6 INT) wasn’t as sharp as he has been in last week’s 20-13 win over Baltimore, finishing with 312 passing yards, a touchdown and two interceptions. He’ll need to limit his mistakes against what’s been a solid defense in Houston. WR Reggie Wayne (30 rec, 384 yards, 1 TD) continues to be Luck’s favorite target, even after tearing his ACL last year. Wayne caught seven passes for 77 yards in the Week 5 win over the Ravens. His ability to create separation is truly special, and he should be a major X-factor against the Texans. The Colts rushed for 117 yards and a touchdown against a good Baltimore run defense last game. RB Ahmad Bradshaw (250 rush yards, 0 TD) continues to be productive for Indianapolis. He rushed 15 times for 68 yards and also caught four passes for 17 yards. Bradshaw, who has four receiving touchdowns this year, will need to find a way to continue running well, even against DE J.J. Watt (2.0 sacks, 1 INT, 1 TD) and this relentless Texans’ front seven. The Colts defense has been decent this year, allowing 240.4 passing yards per game (16th in NFL) and 101.8 rushing yards per game (13th in NFL). Their rush defense will need to keep up the good work, as they now have to face a red-hot Arian Foster.

The Texans were unable to pickup a victory against the Cowboy last week, but RB Arian Foster (404 yards, 3 TD) did everything he could to carry his team, rushing 23 times for 157 yards and two touchdowns. He also caught two passes for 15 yards. Foster has absolutely steamrolled the Colts in his career. Not counting the last meeting, where Foster left the game with an injury on the first possession, he has gained an eye-popping 867 total yards (173 YPG) and 6 TD in five career meetings with this division foe. He’ll need to find a way to produce, as he is the only player on this Texans team that can be relied upon to move the chains on a week-to-week basis. One player who must improve for this team to succeed is QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (1,056 pass yards, 5 TD, 6 INT), who has been miserable as of late. Over the past three weeks, he’s thrown just two touchdown passes and a horrendous six interceptions. If he doesn’t start taking better care of the football, the Texans could turn somewhere else at quarterback. WR Andre Johnson (27 rec, 320 yards, 0 TD) has looked great for Houston, including hauling in five passes for 58 yards in the loss to Dallas, but he will likely not find the end zone until the quarterback play significantly improves in Houston. The Texans defense is going to need to improve, as they have given up a lot of yards this season. They’re allowing 253.2 yards per game against the pass (22nd in NFL), which is not going to fly against Andrew Luck.


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