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Injury-riddled Panthers and Bengals collide on Sunday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 10/12/2014  at  5:49:00 AM
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CAROLINA PANTHERS (3-2)
at CINCINNATI BENGALS (3-1)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: Cincinnati -7, Total: 43.5

The Panthers head to Ohio on Sunday to take on a Bengals team that will be highly motivated to shake off a dreadful Week 5 performance.

Carolina was able to end its two-game losing skid with a huge 31-24 comeback victory over the Bears in a game it trailed 21-7 early in the second quarter. Cincinnati was a perfect 3-0 in September, but opened October in New England on Sunday night and was blown out 43-17. These two teams have met just four times since the Panthers joined the NFL, and they have split wins SU, with the Carolina holding a 2-1-1 ATS edge. The last meeting came September 26, 2010, when the Bengals won 20-7 as 3.5-point road underdogs. Three of the four games played between these teams have gone Under the total and that could happen again, as both are good defensive teams. Playing in the Panthers’ favor, the Bengals are 5-18 ATS after allowing 200 or more rushing yards in their previous game since 1992. They are, however, 10-1 ATS in home games over the past two years, and 11-3 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the past three seasons. Both teams will be missing key offensive players in this game, as Carolina top two RBs DeAngelo Williams (ankle) and Jonathan Stewart (knee) are both questionable, as is top TE Greg Olsen (ankle), while Cincinnati expects to be without its top two pass catchers in WRs A.J. Green (toe) and Marvin Jones (foot).

Can the Bengals bounce back from an ugly loss to beat the Panthers handily? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. The experts have been sizzling over the past three weeks, combining for a 33-13 ATS mark (72%). StatFox Scott is 83% ATS (10-2) in Best Bets during this timeframe, and 65% ATS (13-7) on the season, while StatFox Dave is 79% ATS in Best Bets during these three weeks to improve to 63% ATS (15-9) on the season. StatFox Brian has gone (70% ATS) (7-3) in NFL Best Bets since Week 3, and continues to roll in NFL Totals with an (80%) mark (12-3) for the season.

Carolina was down two touchdowns against the Bears, but QB Cam Newton (983 pass yards, 5 TD, 1 INT) was able to pull out a victory for his team. Newton was 19-of-35 for 255 yards 2 TD and 1 INT. WR Kelvin Benjamin (24 rec, 367 yards, 3 TD) had his worst game as a pro, as he lost a fumble and caught just three of his 11 targets. TE Greg Olson (27 rec, 326 yards, 4 TD) was the most reliable target for this team, catching six passes for 72 yards and two touchdowns, which is why his questionable tag is important to keep an eye on. Newton and his offense thrived in the no-huddle offense, which they’ll likely feature in some capacity against this tough Bengals’ defense. The Panthers, however, are going to need to figure it out defensively. They were one of the most intimidating defenses in the league just a year ago, but they’re now giving up 238.8 passing yards per game (15th in NFL) and 129.6 rushing yards per game (23rd in NFL). They’ll need to improve on both of those numbers to get where they want to be as a football team. Turnover margin has been crucial to the Carolina this season, as the club has a +7 TO margin in its three wins, and a minus-3 TO margin in three defeats.

Cincinnati started the season hot, but was destroyed by the Patriots on Sunday night. QB Andy Dalton (926 pass yards, 4 TD, 1 INT) was ineffective against the Patriots when it mattered, throwing for 204 yards with two touchdowns when the game was already over. Dalton should be able to get his team back on track with a matchup against the Panthers and their poor secondary, but he'll certainly miss top WR A.J. Green (17 rec, 314 yards, 2 TD). Cincinnati will likely go back to featuring its running game against the Panthers. RB Giovani Bernard (247 rush yards, 3 TD) had 62 yards on just 13 carries against the Pats. He is effective when he gets touches and the Bengals will likely do their best to make sure he sees the ball plenty. Their offense committed only one turnover during three wins, but had three giveaways last week. This Cincy defense will need to improve for this team to start winning again. The Bengals are allowing 250.8 passing yards per game (19th in NFL) and 140.0 rushing yards per game (27th in NFL).


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