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Royals aim to sweep away Orioles on Wednesday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 10/15/2014  at  6:57:00 AM
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BALTIMORE ORIOLES (99-69)

at KANSAS CITY ROYALS (96-73)

American League Championship Series
Game 4 - Kansas City leads series 3-0
First pitch: Wednesday, 4:05 p.m. ET
Line: Kansas City -120, Baltimore +110, Total: 7.5

The Royals look to keep their perfect postseason going on Wednesday afternoon when they try to sweep away the Orioles and reach the World Series for the first time since 1985.

Baltimore was huge all season with the long ball, leading the league with 211 dingers, but has yet to show that in this series with just one home run through the first three games. Its offense was shut down on Tuesday night, as the team managed a meager three hits (none after the third inning) in the 2-1 defeat. OF Nelson Cruz had multiple hits in each previous playoff contest this year, going 10-for-25 with two homers and 7 RBI, but both he and No. 3 hitter Adam Jones were held hitless (0-for-4) on Tuesday. The Royals look as if they can do no wrong in this postseason, winning each of their seven games while taking four of them into extra innings, and already have four games decided by two runs or less. In another close affair in Game 3, they outlasted the Orioles as the bullpen put together four perfect frames in relief. OF Lorenzo Cain and 1B Eric Hosmer have been impressive in the middle of K.C. lineup this postseason, combining to go 24-for-57 (.421) with seven extra-base hits (2 HRs), 11 RBI and 14 runs. Looking to extend Baltimore’s season for at least one more game will be starter RHP Miguel Gonzalez (10-9, 3.23 ERA in regular season) while LHP Jason Vargas (0-0, 3.00 ERA) attempts to get the Royals to the World Series with a solid performance. The Orioles have been excellent on the road this year at 47-36 (.566), while Kansas City is 45-39 (.536) at Kauffman Stadium. With their win in Game 3, the Royals pushed their record to 15-11 when facing Baltimore over the past three seasons and now have a slight edge (6-5) in that timeframe when playing at home. The only player omissions from this game come from the Orioles side of the ball as they continue to miss 3B Manny Machado (knee) for the rest of the year while 1B Chris Davis (suspension) was left off the ALCS roster.

Miguel Gonzalez is an unexciting starter for the Orioles who has managed double-digit victories in each of the past two seasons despite a low strikeout rate (6.3 K/9) while allowing far too many homers (1.42 HR/9). He does have decent control (2.9 BB/9), but seemingly was lucky throughout the season with batters hitting .273 BABIP against him while he left an unsustainable number of runners on base (85.5%). Gonzalez has thrown just one postseason game, but it was a good one, as he went seven innings while allowing one run on five hits with eight strikeouts (0 walks) against the Yankees in the 2012 ALDS. In his career against the Royals, he is 1-2 with a 4.82 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, while striking out a meager 4.3 batters per nine innings, and took a loss against them in his one start this year on April 27 (6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 4 K's). OF Jarrod Dyson (5-for-6) and C Salvador Perez (4-for-9, 1 HR, 2 RBI) have torched Gonzalez in limited at-bats while the likes of DH Billy Butler, SS Alcides Escobar, OF Alex Gordon, 1B Eric Hosmer and 3B Mike Moustakas are a combined 4-for-39 (.103) with nine strikeouts in the matchup. The bullpen for Baltimore is 29-23 (.558) with a 3.08 ERA and 1.16 WHIP this year, and has successfully converted 55-of-74 (74%) save opportunities. Closer Zach Britton (4.91 ERA, 2 saves) has not had a save opportunity in this series after saving 37-of-41 (90%) games with a ground-ball rate of 75.3% in the regular season.

Jason Vargas put together another solid season in 2014, getting double-digit victories for the third time in four seasons while seeing his control improve to an impressive 2.0 BB/9. He is not a big swing-and-miss-type thrower with a strikeout rate of only 6.2 K/9, but does not give up too many homers (0.91 HR/9). After a horrendous five starts in September, where he went 1-3 with a 6.57 ERA, Vargas' first career postseason outing was solid in the opening series, as he posted a pitching line of 6 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB and 2 K's, with both runs allowed coming off solo homers. Vargas has always performed well in this matchup too, going 2-3 with a 1.94 ERA and 1.04 WHIP while giving up 3 HR in 55.2 frames versus Baltimore. OF Nelson Cruz looks to have a big day, as he is an impressive 10-for-30 with two doubles, 4 HR and 8 RBI against Vargas, while OF Adam Jones (5-for-27, 1 double, 1 RBI) has done poorly when facing the lefty. The relievers for Kansas City have combined to go 34-18 (.654) this year with a 3.22 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, and are 58-for-70 (83%) in save chances. Closer Greg Holland (1.29 ERA, 5 saves) has allowed just three hits with nine strikeouts in his seven innings of work this postseason, as he has earned a save in each of the first three games of this ALCS.


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