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Broncos host red-hot 49ers on Sunday night
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 10/19/2014  at  5:40:00 AM
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SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (4-2)
at DENVER BRONCOS (4-1)

Kickoff: Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line: Denver -7, Total: 49.5

The 49ers look to win their fourth straight game when they visit the Broncos on Sunday night.

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook betting preview for this matchup:

Denver escaped with a 31-17 victory over the Jets on the road in Week 6, and now the team hosts a San Francisco team that has been fantastic defensively this season. The 49ers rank among the top five NFL clubs in both rushing and passing yards allowed per game, and won their third straight contest (SU and ATS) with a 31-17 win over the Rams on Monday night. These teams have met just six times since 1992 and the 49ers are 4-2 (SU and ATS) in those games. When playing in Denver, the teams have split wins SU and ATS in that span. Broncos QB Peyton Manning is 2-0 SU against the 49ers in his career, but he’s just 1-1 ATS and has struggled individually with just one touchdown to two interceptions in those games. Manning has thrown 506 touchdown passes in his career and needs just two more to tie Brett Favre for the most in NFL history. Since becoming the coach of the 49ers, Jim Harbaugh is 12-2 ATS in October games with the team. He is also 6-0 ATS when playing a team who forces one or less turnovers a game with the 49ers. The Broncos, meanwhile, are 48-28 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992. LB Patrick Willis (toe) is questionable for San Francisco in this one.

Can the Broncos avoid an upset in this matchup? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. The experts have been sizzling over the past four weeks, combining for a 39-24 ATS mark (62%). StatFox Dave is 72% ATS (13-5) in Best Bets during this timeframe to improve to 61% ATS (17-11) on the season, while StatFox Scott is 69% ATS (11-5) in Best Bets during these four weeks, and 58% ATS (14-10) on the season. StatFox Brian has gone (69% ATS) (9-4) in NFL Best Bets since Week 3 to increase his season Best Bets mark to 57% ATS (12-9), and continues to roll in NFL Totals with a stellar (78%) record (14-4) for the season.

The 49ers started off poorly in their win over the Rams, but they played a very good second half and will carry that momentum into this meeting with the Broncos. QB Colin Kaepernick (1,456 pass yards, 10 TD, 4 INT) has really gotten himself going in recent weeks. Since a three-interception game against the Bears in Week 2, Kaepernick has thrown seven touchdown passes with just one interception. He was 22-of-36 for 343 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions in the win over St. Louis and should be able to play well against a below average Broncos’ secondary. If the 49ers are going to upset the Broncos on the road, however, then RB Frank Gore (403 rush yards, 1 TD) will need to be much better than he was against St. Louis. Gore rushed for just 38 yards on 16 attempts and he will be relied upon to turn things around against Denver. This game could come down to who controls the clock, and the 49ers won’t be able to do that without Gore at his best.

The Broncos are now 4-1 after defeating the Jets in New York last Sunday. QB Peyton Manning (1,530 yards, 15 TD, 3 INT) threw for 237 yards with three touchdowns and no picks in that game, but now he’ll face the 49ers, who are allowing just 207.3 yards per game through the air (2nd in NFL). If there’s anybody that will hang a big passing game on the 49ers though, it’s Manning. He’ll break down their coverage before the plays start and will be looking frequently for his top receiver, WR Demaryius Thomas (31 rec, 491 yards, 4 TD). Thomas has been the hottest receiver in football over the past two weeks, catching 18 passes for 350 yards and 3 TD in those games. The 49ers will be doing everything they possibly can to prevent him from getting open for a deep ball. The Broncos defense, meanwhile, is performing at a high level as well. This unit is allowing just 241.4 passing YPG (16th in NFL) and 76.8 rushing YPG (4th in NFL). They’ve allowed just 20.8 PPG on the season, which is excellent considering they’re scoring 29.4 PPG themselves.


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