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No. 3 Ole Miss favored big over Tennessee Saturday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 10/18/2014  at  5:10:00 AM
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TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS (3-3)
at OLE MISS REBELS (6-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: Ole Miss -16.5, Total: 46.5

No. 3 Ole Miss tries to stay unbeaten when it hosts Tennessee in an SEC matchup Saturday night.

The Volunteers have done well when they are the favorite, going 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS), but have really struggled when they are the underdog at 0-3 SU (1-2 ATS) but lost by a total of just four points against both Florida and Georgia. Last week Tennessee had an easy matchup against Chattanooga when they were 25-point favorites and captured a 45-10 victory while gaining 340 yards of total offense. The Vols forced three turnovers in the win as they averaged a mere 2.9 YPC on the ground. Ole Miss has jumped into the playoff talks as the school started out the season with a 6-0 start (SU and ATS), defeating its opponents by an average of 23.8 PPG. Last week, the Rebels had a tough draw when they traveled to Texas A&M as three-point underdogs, but prevailed 35-20, as they were outgained 455-338, but forced three Aggies turnovers. The one area that the Rebels did very well in was rush defense as they gave up a mere 1.5 YPC to the Aggies. These programs have not met since 2010 when the Volunteers dominated in a 52-14 victory at home as two-point favorites while gaining 323 yards through the air and forcing five turnovers. Overall since 1992, Ole Miss is 4-2 ATS in this matchup while going a mere 1-5 SU. Bettors should know that Tennessee is 25-11 ATS (69%) in road October games since 1992 while the Rebels are 11-3 ATS (79%) in games played on turf over the past two years. Neither team has any significant injuries coming into this SEC battle.

Can the Vols put a scare into this red-hot Ole Miss squad? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season. StatFox Brian is heating up with a 67% ATS mark (6-3) in Best Bets over the past two weeks.

Tennessee has put forth a poor offensive effort so far in the 2014 campaign as it ranks near the bottom of the nation in rushing yards (109.7 YPG, 112th in FBS) while also not doing well in the passing game (237.8 YPG, 64th in nation) and scoring 28.0 PPG (81st in FBS). QB Justin Worley (1,388 pass yards, 12 TD, 5 INT) has done great in the team’s victories with 8 TD and 1 INT, but has thrown 4 TD and 4 INT in the losses. His best performance came last week against Chattanooga as he went 19-for-24 with 198 yards and three touchdowns (0 INT) in the win. The Vols top rusher is freshman HB Jalen Hurd (374 rush yards, 2 TD) who has double-digit attempts in each of the first five games while getting 4.5 YPC on the year. The air attack is paced by the tandem of WRs Marquez North (240 rec yards, 4 TD) and Pig Howard (219 rec yards, 1 TD), who have combined for 49 receptions (9.4 avg). But North had a single catch in his most recent game. The defense for the Volunteers has done well, allowing a meager 19.2 PPG to their opponents (19th in nation) while being led by the likes of LB A.J. Johnson (68 tackles, 1 INT) and DB Cameron Sutton (21 tackles, 3 INT).

Ole Miss has been amazing this season thanks to a big performance from its passing game (295.2 YPG, 26th in FBS) while scoring a solid 35.7 PPG (33rd in nation). QB Bo Wallace (1,700 pass yards, 15 TD, 6 INT) has been a big part of the revival of this offense, throwing 30+ times in five of the first six games while gaining over 300 yards three times. Last week in the big win over Texas A&M, Wallace did little through the air, going 13-for-19 with 178 yards and 1 TD (0 INT), but had his best game on the ground (50 rush yards, 2 TD). HB Jaylen Walton (287 rush yards, 3 TD) has had double-digit carries just twice on the year while averaging a solid 5.9 YPC, and has contributed 118 yards (14.8 avg) with 2 TD as a receiver. WR Laquon Treadwell (415 rec yards, 4 TD) has eclipsed the century mark twice this season as the leading receiver on the team, as both WRs Cody Core (333 rec yards, 4 TD) and Vince Sanders (316 rec yards, 3 TD) have also contributed plenty. The defense for this program has been its strength, as the unit has given up just 11.8 PPG (2nd in FBS) while allowing 307.2 YPG (13th in nation). This side of the ball is led by DBs Senquez Golson (19 tackles, 5 INT, 1 TD) and Tony Conner (36 tackles, 4.5 TFL, 1 INT) who hope to shut down the Volunteers this weekend.


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