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Boise State hosts slumping BYU on Friday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 10/24/2014  at  3:50:00 AM
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BYU COUGARS (4-3)
at BOISE STATE BRONCOS (5-2)

Kickoff: Friday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: Boise State -7, Total: 59

BYU attempts to end a three-game losing skid when it travels to the blue turf of Boise State on Friday night.

The Cougars started out the year with some impressive play, winning their first four games SU (2-2 ATS), but have since gone 0-3 (both SU and ATS) while losing by an average of 9.7 PPG. They had been double-digit favorites in two of those losses, including against Nevada last week when they hosted the Wolf Pack as 10-point favorites and absorbed a 42-35 loss while being outscored 22-7 in the final quarter. BYU outgained its opponent 601-411 in the defeat, but had three turnovers which proved to be its downfall. The Cougars have now turned the ball over nine times during their three-game losing skid. Boise State has been favored in all but one contest this year and is 4-3 ATS while defeating its opponents by an average of 14.0 PPG in its wins. Last week, the Broncos were big 18-point favorites when they hosted Fresno State and came away with a 37-27 victory as they totaled 492 yards of offense, including 264 rushing yards. These programs have split their past two meetings, with BYU going 2-0 ATS. This includes winning last season when they met in Utah by a score of 37-20 as 5.5-point favorites after building a large 24-3 halftime lead and throwing for 339 yards while forcing four turnovers. Trends show that the Cougars are 30-16 ATS (65%) in road games after outgaining their opponent by 175+ total yards in their previous game since 1992, while Boise State is 15-2 ATS (88%) after gaining 450+ total yards in four consecutive contests over the same timeframe. BYU has plenty of injuries to worry about in this one, as QB Taysom Hill (leg) is out for the season while HBs Jamaal Williams (ankle), Algernon Brown (ankle), Adam Hine (ankle) and LB Alani Fua (ankle) are all questionable. For the Broncos, leading WR Matt Miller (Ankle) is out for the year and will certainly be missed in the passing game.

Can BYU end its long losing skid on Friday night? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season. StatFox Gary is heating up with an 83% ATS mark (5-1) in Best Bets over the past two weeks.

Despite the current losing streak, BYU has been able to put up some solid offense numbers this season. The team has thrown for 244 YPG while getting 208 YPG on the ground (33rd in FBS) and has scored 32.7 PPG. The absence of Taysom Hill has opened the door for QB Christian Stewart (733 pass yards, 7 TD, 4 INT) and while he has done fairly well, his team is 0-3 with him as the starter. In the loss against Nevada, Stewart threw for 408 yards on 39-of-63 passing (61.9%) while having 4 TD and 0 INT. Hill was also the team’s leading rusher and the offense may be without leading HB Jamaal Williams (399 rush yards, 3 TD) as well, so HB Paul Lasike (180 rush yards, 1 TD) will be expected to carry the running duties after getting double-digit attempts in each of the past two games. WR Mitch Matthews (457 rec yards, 5 TD) leads this team with 43 receptions, while WR Jordan Leslie (430 rec yards, 1 TD) has provided some big plays with 13.0 yards per catch on 33 grabs. The defense has struggled while allowing 26.1 PPG and 388 total YPG to their opponents, as LB Alani Fua (30 tackles, 3 sacks) and DB Craig Bills (39 tackles, 1 INT) have led this side of the ball. If Fua can't play on Friday, the Cougars could be in for a long night.

Boise State has been one of the better offenses in the nation while gaining 452.1 YPG of total offense (39th in FBS) with 291 of those yards coming from the passing game and has scored 32.0 PPG (54th in nation). QB Grant Hedrick (1,831 pass yards, 8 TD, 10 INT) had eight of his 10 interceptions in just two contests (0-2) this year while having a 7:2 TD/INT ratio in his other five games and eclipsing 340 passing yards twice. He is a dual-threat also as he has run for 260 yards on 86 attempts (3.0 YPC) while getting into the end zone twice. HB Jay Ajayi (867 rush yards, 10 TD) ranks 12th in the nation in rushing yards while being one of 12 backs who has double-digit scores. He has compiled at least 150 yards in 4-of-7 games this year while also recording 35 receptions for 317 yards (9.1 avg) and 2 TD. With the loss of WR Matt Miller, WR Shane Williams-Rhodes (343 rec yards, 3 TD) and freshman TE Jake Roh (243 rec yards, 1 TD) will need to step up. On the defensive side of things, the Broncos have allowed a poor 27.1 PPG to their opponents behind the play of LB Tanner Vallejo (47 tackles, 1.5 sacks) and the DB combo of Donte Deayon (22 tackles, 1 INT, 1 TD) and Darian Thompson (26 tackles, 4 INT).


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