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Miami visits Virginia Tech on Thursday night
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 10/23/2014  at  4:06:00 AM
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MIAMI HURRICANES (4-3)
at VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES (4-3)

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -2.5, Total: 49.5

Miami looks for its first road win on Thursday night when it travels to Virginia Tech in an ACC matchup.

The Hurricanes have had a rough go of things in 2014, winning each of their games where they were favorites, but then losing by an average of 13.0 PPG in the three contests where they were considered underdogs. Overall they are 3-4 ATS while easily covering in their most recent matchup at home against Cincinnati when they put up 55 points in a 21-point victory as 15-point favorites. The win brought them to a perfect 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) at home as they forced three turnovers and totaled 621 yards of total offense, including getting rushing performances of 85+ yards from three separate individuals. After a big win against Ohio State in the second week of the season, the Hokies year has been underwhelming, as they have gone 2-3 SU (1-4 ATS) since that victory, while losing SU each time while being a favorite. Last week was no different when they headed to Pittsburgh to take on the Panthers as small one-point favorites and left with a 21-16 defeat. They managed a meager 291 yards of offense in the loss while going 2-for-14 in third-down efficiency and averaging a woeful 1.2 YPC on the ground. Since 1992, Virginia Tech holds a 13-9 SU edge (15-7 ATS) in this matchup while the past two times these programs met have not been close. In the 2013 edition of this game, the Hokies dominated Miami in Florida as 5.5-point underdogs, finishing with a 42-24 win as they earned 549 yards of offense and held the Hurricanes to 28 rushing yards. Trends show that Virginia Tech is a poor 6-16 ATS (27%) as the favorite since the start of the 2012 season while being 40-21 ATS (66%) after two consecutive games where it committed one or fewer turnovers since 1992. On the injury front, Miami has no important players missing while the Hokies have starting HB Marshawn Williams (ankle) listed as questionable.

Which ACC team will prevail on Thursday night? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season. StatFox Gary is heating up with an 83% ATS mark (5-1) in Best Bets over the past two weeks.

Miami has pieced together quite a balanced offense this year, gaining 264 YPG through the air and 162 YPG on the ground while scoring 31.4 PPG (54th in nation). QB Brad Kaaya (1,806 pass yards, 16 TD, 9 INT) has struggled with turnovers as he has multiple interceptions thrown in four of his seven contests, but he has done better over his past three contests with 6 TD and 2 INT. He has had 220+ passing yards in each of the past five games, as he is hitting on 63% of his passes for 9.0 YPA on the year. In the backfield with him will be workhorse HB Duke Johnson (787 rush yards, 6 TD) who is averaging a tremendous 7.2 YPC while having a touchdown in each of the past six games and has averaged 139 YPG over his past three contests. He is also a solid piece of the passing attack with 187 yards on 17 catches (11.0 avg) while grabbing multiple balls in each of the past five games. There is not one clear-cut receiver who is the go-to guy on this offense with six different players having between 17 and 23 receptions while WR Phillip Dorsett has an amazing 550 yards on just 16 receptions (34.4 avg) with six of the catches going for touchdowns. The defense, which is led by LBs Denzel Perryman (51 tackles, 4 TFL, 1 INT) and Thurston Armbrister (39 tackles, 5 sacks), is allowing 24.4 PPG to its opponents while doing very well against the pass (175.0 YPG, 10th in FBS).

The Hokies do most of their damage on offense through the air with 241.3 YPG passing while ranking in the bottom half of the nation in rushing (152.9 YPG) and have scored a fairly low 28.4 PPG. QB Michael Brewer (1,674 pass yards, 11 TD, 11 INT) has struggled in his first year as a starter and despite averaging just over 37 attempts per game; he has failed to eclipse the 300-yard mark in any contest while tallying a subpar 6.3 YPA. HB Marshawn Williams (337 rush yards, 3 TD) is questionable to play in this contest, which will open the door for sophomore HB Joel Caleb (96 rush yards, 4.4 YPC) if Williams is unable to go. WR Isaiah Ford (424 rec yards, 4 TD) is the top target through the air, as he has at least four catches in 5-of-7 games while WRs Cam Phillips (308 rec yards, 2 TD) and Bucky Hodges (289 rec yards, 4 TD) have also contributed plenty. The defensive side of the ball is this team’s strength though, as the unit is allowing 20.0 PPG (19th in FBS) while giving up 326 YPG of total offense (20th in nation). Virginia Tech has averaged four sacks per game as the club is led by DL Ken Ekanem (23 tackles, 5 sacks) while senior LB Chase Williams (54 tackles, 3.5 sacks) gives this side of the ball a veteran presence.


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