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No. 3 Ole Miss faces stiff test at No. 24 LSU
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 10/25/2014  at  6:53:00 AM
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OLE MISS REBELS (7-0)
at LSU TIGERS (6-2)

Kickoff: Saturday, 7:15 p.m. ET
Line: Ole Miss -3.5, Total: 44.5

In a tough SEC battle on Saturday night, No. 3 Ole Miss attempts to stay undefeated when it travels to Baton Rouge to face No. 24 LSU.

Ole Miss has amazed everybody by going undefeated both SU and ATS; winning their games by an average of 24.9 PPG and defeating the likes of Boise State, Texas A&M and Alabama. Last week the Rebels got a breather within the SEC as they faced Tennessee while giving 15 points and came away with a convincing 34-3 victory. Their defense forced four turnovers in the win while holding the Volunteers to a mere 3-for-16 on third-down conversions and a meager 191 total yards of offense. The Tigers have had a solid start to the year, but have some blemishes such as losing to both Mississippi State at home by a score of 34-29 and falling on the road to Auburn 41-7. Overall they are 6-2 ATS and were dominant last week as 11-point favorites at home against Kentucky as they pulled out a huge 41-3 win and totaled 423 yards of offense. As usual, it was LSU's defense that shined brightest, allowing just 217 total yards including a putrid 27 rushing yards on 2.6 YPC. These programs have played some close battles over the past two seasons with the home team winning each time by an average of 4.5 PPG, as the Rebels were the victors in 2013 with a 27-24 win as 9.5-point underdogs. In the contest, Ole Miss held the Tigers scoreless in the first half as it forced three turnovers and passed the ball for 349 yards. Bettors should realize that LSU is a poor 33-55 ATS (38%) in home games against conference opponents since 1992, but the team is also 5-1 ATS (83%) this year after a game where it allowed one or fewer turnovers. There are no significant injuries to either Ole Miss or LSU heading into this game.

Can LSU hand Ole Miss its first loss of the season? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season. StatFox Gary is heating up with an 83% ATS mark (5-1) in Best Bets over the past two weeks.

Ole Miss has been solid all year through the air with 282 YPG of passing (33rd in FBS) while getting 151 YPG on the ground (84th in nation) and scoring 35.4 PPG (30th in FBS). QB Bo Wallace (1,899 pass yards, 17 TD, 6 INT) has been thrown into the Heisman talks with his play, and over the past three contests, he has thrown 6 TD with no interceptions while getting double-digit rushing attempts in each game and going for 40.7 YPG with his legs. In the victories over Alabama and Texas A&M, Wallace combined to go 31-for-50 (62%) for 429 yards, 4 TD and 0 INT. HB Jaylen Walton (347 rush yards, 4 TD) has been the team’s lead back, but has hit double-digit carries in just three games while averaging 5.9 YPC, and has also scored two receiving touchdowns. WRs Laquon Treadwell (458 rec yards, 4 TD), Vince Sanders (242 rec yards, 4 TD) and Cody Core (345 rec yards, 4 TD) have all taken turns being the main target in this offense for Wallace. The defense for the Rebels has allowed the fewest points to their opponents in the nation (10.6 PPG) as no team has scored more than 20 points against them. This side of the ball is led by freshman DL Marquis Haynes (19 tackles, 6.5 sacks) and DB Senquez Golson (19 tackles, 7 INT, 1 TD) who have been making big plays all year.

LSU has earned many of its 35.6 PPG (28th in FBS) on the ground where it gains 220.9 YPG (30th in nation) while also adding a subpar 194.4 YPG through the air (98th in FBS). Because the Tigers lean heavily on the run game, QB Anthony Jennings (1,048 pass yards, 7 TD, 3 INT) has had more than 20 throws just three times this year. Although he has connected on a mere 50% of his passes for 8.2 YPA, Jennings has not thrown a pick since tossing two against New Mexico State on Sept. 27. Freshman HB Leonard Fournette (544 rush yards, 5.0 YPC, 7 TD) has double-digit attempts in 6-of-8 games this year, and is joined by HBs Kenny Hilliard (353 rush yards, 6 TD), Terrence McGee (344 rush yards, 3 TD) and Darrel Williams (249 rush yards, 3 TD) to create a lethal ground game. WR Travin Dural (665 rec yards, 7 TD) has been lightning in a bottle with 25.6 yards per catch, but has had more than three receptions in a game just twice so far on the year. Like their counterparts, the Tigers defense is tough as they are allowing 17.0 PPG (8th in FBS) but has allowed more than 21 points three times. DL Danielle Hunter (46 tackles, 8 TFL, 1 sack) and LB Kwon Alexander (49 tackles, 3.5 TFL) hope they can outshine the Rebels defense and earn their team a win on Saturday.


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