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No. 1 Mississippi State visits Kentucky Saturday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 10/25/2014  at  5:53:00 AM
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MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS (6-0)
at KENTUCKY WILDCATS (5-2)

Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Mississippi State -14, Total: 59.5

No. 1 Mississippi State looks to continue its run as the top team in the nation with a potentially dangerous trip to Kentucky on Saturday.

The Bulldogs have been dominant so far in 2014 as they have gone 5-1 ATS while getting some huge victories against the likes of LSU, Texas A&M, and Auburn. They defeated those three SEC juggernauts by an average of 12.3 PPG as they took over the No. 1 spot in the polls. In their most recent game on Oct. 11, they hosted Auburn as three-point underdogs and came away with a definitive 38-23 win while totaling 469 yards of offense in a contest where each team had four turnovers. Kentucky has been solid this season with a 5-2 ATS mark, and has a big victory under its belt when it defeated South Carolina 45-38 as a five-point underdog a few weeks ago. Last week, the Wildcats had a tough draw when they headed to Baton Rouge and got dismantled by a score of 41-3 to an LSU team favored by 11 points. They managed just 217 yards of offense while the Tigers rolled them for 423 total yards, including 303 on the ground. Mississippi State has been a double-digit favorite in this matchup in each of the past three meetings, going 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) while failing to cover as a 12-point favorite in last season’s 28-22 win at home. In the contest, the Bulldogs threw for a solid 295 yards while the teams combined for 44 first downs. Bettors should know that Mississippi State is 6-0 ATS after playing two consecutive conference games in the past two seasons while the Wildcats are 4-2 ATS after being outrushed by 125 or more yards in their previous game in the past three seasons. On the injury front, the Bulldogs have no omissions from their team, while HB Stanley Boom Williams (head) is listed as questionable for Kentucky.

Can Mississippi State win and cover a big road spread? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season. StatFox Gary is heating up with an 83% ATS mark (5-1) in Best Bets over the past two weeks.

Mississippi State's offense has done so well this season (41.8 PPG, 9th in FBS) due to its ability to both pass the ball (265.3 YPG) and pound it on the ground (264.3 YPG, 12th in FBS). QB Dak Prescott (1,478 pass yards, 14 TD, 4 INT) is one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the nation as he connected on 61.5% of his passes on the year while rushing the ball at least 20 times in each of the past three weeks. Overall, he has rushed the ball 106 times for 576 yards (5.4 YPC) while getting into the end zone eight times, and has eclipsed 200 yards passing in each of his games. Joining him in the lethal backfield is HB Josh Robinson (689 rush yards, 8 TD) who has averaged 7.0 YPC while scoring in each of the past five contests, and contributed to the passing game with 148 yards (13.5 avg) through the air. WR De’Runnya Wilson (319 rec yards, 6 TD) leads the team with just 18 receptions, while a third of them have gone for scores. Wilson has been wildly consistent with at least one touchdown in every game he’s played in. While their offense gets much of the praise for the great start, the defense has also impressed while allowing a mere 20.0 PPG (19th in FBS) behind the big play of LB Benardrick McKinney (41 tackles, 3 sacks) and DL Preston Smith (19 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 2 INT).

Kentucky has a balanced, yet unimpressive, offense that has gained 247.4 YPG in the air (53rd in nation) and 168 rushing YPG (62nd in FBS) as they are scoring 31.7 PPG (55th in nation). QB Patrick Towles (1,687 pass yards, 10 TD, 4 INT) has not thrown an interception since Sept. 27 against Vanderbilt, but has not surpassed 220 yards passing in any of his past four contests. HB JoJo Kemp (300 rush yards, 4 TD) leads the team in rushing attempts while HB Stanley Williams (222 rush yards, 2 TD) has averaged 7.4 YPC on the year while putting together a big performance (104 yards, 1 TD) in the win over Louisiana-Monroe a few weeks ago. WR Ryan Timmons leads the team in both receptions (31) and yards (339) while catching 2 TD, but has not had any huge outputs to date. The defense has done fairly well on the year while limiting their opponents to 21.9 PPG (37th in nation) and giving up a mere 181.3 YPG in passing (15th in FBS). LB Josh Forrest (56 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 1 INT) and DB A.J. Stamps (32 tackles, 3 INT) hope they can put their best foot forward on Saturday and help pull off a major upset against the top-ranked team in the nation.


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