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2014-15 NBA preview: Northwest Division
By: Staff Writer - StatFox
Published: 10/8/2014  at  12:27:00 PM
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StatFox continues its run of previewing all six NBA divisions in the next six weeks before the regular season tips off on Tuesday, Oct. 28. Next up is the Northwest Division, which the Oklahoma City Thunder won by five games last season.

NORTHWEST DIVISION

DENVER NUGGETS

2013-14 SU record: 36-46 SU (43.9%), 20th in NBA
2013-14 ATS record: 39-42-1 ATS (48.1%), 17th in NBA
Odds to Win 2014-15 Northwest Division: 12-to-1
Odds to Win 2014-15 Western Conference: 35-to-1
Odds to Win 2014-15 NBA Championship: 75-to-1

GUARDS
TY LAWSON is the facilitator in Denver’s up-tempo offense. Durability is a concern, as he missed 15-plus games for the third time in five career seasons during the 2013-14 campaign . . . ARRON AFFLALO is what the Nuggets need. He’ll be a No. 3 scorer and, more importantly, gives them a big defensive upgrade . . . Denver can’t afford to play RANDY FOYE so many minutes. He’s a serviceable reserve, but they won’t win games if he’s playing 30-plus minutes . . . The Afflalo acquisition blocks him, but GARY HARRIS is tough-nosed on defense and a solid deep threat . . . NATE ROBINSON might unseat Foye for the sixth-man role by midseason, but first he’ll have to work his way back from a torn ACL . . . Combo guard ERICK GREEN will pick up garbage-time minutes.

FORWARDS
KENNETH FARIED is one of the few bright spots in Denver. He can’t generate his own offense, but he’s effective filling lanes and picking up garbage points in this system . . . If he’s ever 100 percent healthy again, DANILO GALLINARI will be the go-to scorer on this team. But he’s a question mark after missing all of last season with a torn ACL . . . WILSON CHANDLER won’t be relied on as heavily this season, but he’s going to get major minutes as a floor spacer who can play the 2-guard or either forward spot . . . Stretch-4 DARRELL ARTHUR is a solid rotation guy when he’s shooting well, but he was laying bricks last season . . . QUINCY MILLER has intriguing athleticism, but remains a raw project . . . Even if he wasn’t coming off a torn ACL, J.J. HICKSON would not make this rotation.

CENTERS
TIMOFEY MOZGOV may have grabbed the lead in this center-by-committee group with his strong finish to last season . . . A stress fracture cost JaVALE McGEE his chance to secure a full-time role last season. The tantalizing, but consistently disappointing, big man should make the rotation, but has an uphill battle to earn minutes . . . JUSUF NURKIC is a high-upside project as a 7-footer with a legit NBA offensive skill set.

StatFox Take: The Nuggets are coming off a very disappointing season, but they are now healthy and also brought in a strong two-way player in Arron Afflalo. The Nuggets are a tough team to beat on their home court and they could make a push for the eight seed in the Western Conference. They’re not, however, a good bet to win the division or conference.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

2013-14 SU record: 40-42 SU (48.8%), 17th in NBA
2013-14 ATS record: 39-43 ATS (47.6%), T-18th in NBA
Odds to Win 2014-15 Northwest Division: 100-to-1
Odds to Win 2014-15 Western Conference: 200-to-1
Odds to Win 2014-15 NBA Championship: 400-to-1

GUARDS
RICKY RUBIO is a fine ball-handler and creative passer, but it would be nice if he knocked down some shots . . . The Wolves are still trying to move KEVIN MARTIN’s contract. He has devolved into more of a spot-up shooter . . . ANDREW WIGGINS should immediately contribute for this team. He’ll be an elite defender, sooner rather than later, and should be able to produce points as well . . . Shoot-first combo guard MO WILLIAMS will head up the second unit . . . J.J. BAREA is also likely to be moved. He can still do the Mighty Mouse, sixth-man thing . . . On paper, CHASE BUDINGER is a great fit alongside Rubio due to his shooting and movement off the ball. He has to stay healthy though . . . Head coach Flip Saunders is high on ZACH LaVINE, a pure athlete who didn’t do much of anything as a freshman at UCLA.

FORWARDS
THADDEUS YOUNG is now the best player in this Timberwolves frontcourt. He’ll lead the team in scoring and eats up rebounds as well . . . ANTHONY BENNETT should play some significant minutes with this team. He’s a good scorer and will try to prove that he was just not ready to come into a bad situation last season . . . COREY BREWER has established himself as a solid defender on the wing who can knock down some threes and run the floor well . . . GLENN ROBINSON III should earn immediate minutes due to his defense . . . SHABAZZ MUHAMMAD gets new life with a new coaching regime coming in. He could be a crafty second-unit scorer . . . RONNY TURIAF is a big body who can protect the rim.

CENTERS
NIKOLA PEKOVIC is a big part of this offense without needing plays designed for him. He’s arguably the top offensive rebounder in the NBA . . . GORGUI DIENG impressed late last season and should be ready for a bigger role. He and Pekovic might be in a timeshare by the season’s second half.

StatFox Take: Trading a star like Kevin Love would usually mean a major decrease in wins, but this team got a good return with a package centered around Andrew Wiggins. The Wolves are not as far away from competing as people think. They’ll be a tough team to beat this season on a nightly basis, but they’re still likely to miss the playoffs.

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

2013-14 SU record: 69-32 SU (68.3%), 2nd in NBA
2013-14 ATS record: 52-47-2 ATS (52.5%), 9th in NBA
Odds to Win 2014-15 Northwest Division: 33-to-100
Odds to Win 2014-15 Western Conference: 17-to-5
Odds to Win 2014-15 NBA Championship: 15-to-2

GUARDS
Everything should be a full go with RUSSELL WESTBROOK. His attacking style of play will always carry some injury risk, but he hasn’t lost any explosiveness to this point . . . REGGIE JACKSON wants to start, but it’s a question of whether the Thunder can survive defensively with him and Westbrook in a small backcourt. Jackson is certainly their second-best offensive guard . . . ANTHONY MORROW can flat-out shoot. He can’t do anything else, but that floor spacing might be enough to get him 20 minutes per night . . . If the light doesn’t turn on, JEREMY LAMB will be on the outside of this rotation.

FORWARDS
Once he returns from his foot injury in late November, it should be the same old story for KEVIN DURANT, the reigning NBA MVP . . . He still struggles defensively in space, but SERGE IBAKA will be right there among the league leaders in blocks again. Throw in a reliable mid-range game, and more offensive responsibility with Durant out, and he’s a fringe All-Star . . . NICK COLLISON takes charges, but doesn't do much else . . . Rookie MITCH McGARY could be pushing Collison for minutes by midseason . . . ANDRE ROBERSON could get another handful of starts as a defensive presence on the wing, but he rarely plays 20-plus minutes . . . PERRY JONES is on the fringe of this roster.

CENTERS
Is this it? Could this be the season that the Thunder finally stop playing KENDRICK PERKINS? . . . STEVEN ADAMS came on strong late last season and is probably already better than Perk. He can defend and moves the ball offensively.

StatFox Take: The Thunder have kept their core intact while retooling some of their role players. This team still has Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka, and they’ll continue to be a good bet to win the division and Western Conference until they no longer do. An NBA title is the ultimate goal for this team and this could be the season they finally get that ring.

PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS

2013-14 SU record: 59-34 SU (63.4%), 7th in NBA
2013-14 ATS record: 47-46 ATS (50.5%), 13th in NBA
Odds to Win 2014-15 Northwest Division: 14-to-5
Odds to Win 2014-15 Western Conference: 20-to-1
Odds to Win 2014-15 NBA Championship: 50-to-1

GUARDS
DAMIAN LILLARD might be the most complete offensive point guard in the NBA. He’s a legitimately great shooter, and quick enough off the dribble to get wherever he wants inside the paint . . . WESLEY MATTHEWS runs, runs and runs off the ball as a spot-up shooter . . . STEVE BLAKE is most likely to absorb Mo Williams’ old sixth-man role. He can take some ball-handling duties, but at this point his value is as a spot-up shooter . . . He had his rookie season erased by injuries, and it’s a crowded rotation, but C.J. McCOLLUM might be able to shoot his way into significant minutes . . . WILL BARTON is a practice player unless he develops a three-point shot . . . ALLEN CRABBE will likely bounce between Portland and the D-League again.

FORWARDS
LaMARCUS ALDRIDGE’s combination of length and mid-range shooting makes him virtually unguardable when he’s on . . . NICOLAS BATUM often runs the offense with Lillard working off the ball. Batum can shoot, too. There’s no real weakness in his game . . . He tore a thumb ligament during Summer League play, but THOMAS ROBINSON is already back on the court. He’s a hustle guy off the bench, but has a limited offensive game and can’t defend bigger 4’s . . . DORELL WRIGHT will likely bounce in and out of the rotation again due to his streaky shooting . . . JOEL FREELAND’s skill set is limited, but he can play the 4 and the 5 . . . VICTOR CLAVER will try to work his way back into the rotation as a defensive specialist.

CENTERS
ROBIN LOPEZ proved a perfect complement to Aldridge, and should handle the bulk of the minutes at center again . . . CHRIS KAMAN gives the Blazers a more offensive-minded option off the bench . . . It will be another developmental season for MEYERS LEONARD.

StatFox Take: Portland is an excellent basketball team and made some nice improvements to its bench this offseason. The only problem is that the Blazers are still playing in the Western Conference and also share a division with the Thunder. The Blazers should make the playoffs, but they’re not a good bet to do much more than that.

UTAH JAZZ

2013-14 SU record: 25-57 SU (30.5%), T-26th in NBA
2013-14 ATS record: 34-44-4 ATS (43.6%), 29th in NBA
Odds to Win 2014-15 Northwest Division: 100-to-1
Odds to Win 2014-15 Western Conference: 175-to-1
Odds to Win 2014-15 NBA Championship: 400-to-1

GUARDS
TREY BURKE is likely the lead guard here, though it’s really by default. He doesn’t have the athleticism to make a lot of plays in the lane, and will have to rely on difficult shot-making . . . He continues to steadily improve, and there could be a bigger role available for ALEC BURKS. He’ll have to develop a more consistent three-point shot before he really breaks out though . . . DANTE EXUM is an electrifying athlete, but he’s making an enormous jump from essentially high school ball in Australia. He could be a gem in the long run, but don't expect him to do much as a rookie . . . TOURE' MURRY will likely play some garbage minutes.

FORWARDS
He ascended to the alpha role in Utah, but GORDON HAYWARD had some struggles with the extra defensive attention. He should improve somewhat, as he knows what’s coming, and has added a runner to his repertoire . . . DERRICK FAVORS will play more at the 4-spot this season, and he has the strength to power his way to easy baskets. He’s a potential double-double guy . . . RODNEY HOOD had an up-and-down year at Duke despite his physical gifts. He has an NBA-caliber combination of size and athleticism, but right now he’s a streaky shooter with a lot of rough edges on his game . . . TREVOR BOOKER is a solid second-unit big man, a defensive bruiser and good screener on offense . . . JEREMY EVANS can dunk, but provides little else . . . STEVE NOVAK will never be a full-time player, but he’s still one of the league’s elite shooters.

CENTERS
He was disappointing last season, but ENES KANTER still has some upside on the offensive end of the floor. How he and Favors will mesh is yet to be seen . . . RUDY GOBERT is a shot-blocking fool, but still ultra-raw.

StatFox Take: The Jazz locked up Gordon Hayward and also drafted the extremely talented Dante Exum this offseason. This team is far from being ready to make the playoffs, but they are stockpiling young talent hoping that one day it pays off. They’re likely a lottery team for the next season or two at least.

All NBA Previews

ATLANTIC Division
CENTRAL Division
SOUTHEAST Division
NORTHWEST Division
SOUTHWEST Division - Wed, Oct. 15
PACIFIC Division - Wed, Oct. 22

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