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No. 2 FSU faces stiff test Thursday at Louisville
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 10/30/2014  at  4:44:00 AM
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FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (7-0)
at LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (6-2)

Kickoff: Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: Florida State -3.5, Total: 52

No. 2 Florida State looks to protect its flawless record when its heads to Louisville on Thursday night.

The Seminoles have not lost since Nov. 24, 2012, putting their streak at 23 straight victories. They have defeated their opponents this season by an average of 16.3 PPG, but are still a meager 1-6 ATS. FSU once again failed to cover in its most recent contest on Oct. 18 against No. 5 Notre Dame, as the 'Noles escaped with a 31-27 win as nine-point favorites at home. The Irish actually outgained FSU by a sizable 470-323 margin in that contest while the Seminoles had a weak 50 rushing yards on 1.9 YPC while forcing two turnovers. Louisville is a solid 5-3 ATS on the season and has gone a perfect 4-0 SU (2-2 ATS) when playing at home. In its last game on Oct. 18, it hosted NC State as a big 18-point favorite and earned a 30-18 victory. The Cardinals were able to answer all of NC State’s scores in the second half after building up a 17-6 lead at halftime in a game where each team compiled more than 350 yards of total offense while Louisville was able to get it done on the ground (166 rush yards, 5.0 YPC) while not committing a turnover. These two programs have not faced each other since the 2002 campaign when the Cardinals pulled out a big 26-20 upset as 14-point underdogs after trailing 13-6 at the half. Some trends to keep an eye on for this one include Louisville's meager 7-20 ATS record in home games after playing three straight conference games since 1992, while Florida State has managed to go only 1-7 ATS in the past three seasons after failing to cover the spread in two of their previous three games. On the injury report HB Mario Pender (ankle) is questionable for Florida State, while the status of WR James Quick (ankle) and LB Lorenzo Mauldin (hamstring) should be watched as they were both injured last game while being listed as probable for this contest.

Will Louisville be able to hand FSU its first loss in almost two years? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season. StatFox Gary is heating up with a 67% ATS mark (6-3) in Best Bets over the past three weeks.

Florida State has one of the better aerial attacks in the nation, producing 316.7 passing YPG (14th in nation) while struggling on the ground (125.9 YPG, 104th in FBS) and rank 19th in scoring (37.9 PPG). Last season’s Heisman trophy winner, QB Jameis Winston (1,878 pass yards, 13 TD, 6 INT) is relied on heavily in this offense and has at least 31 attempts in five of his six games. He has posted three 300-yard performances in that time while hitting for 71% of his passes on the season. Joining him in the backfield is HB Karlos Williams (378 rush yards, 7 TD) who has scored at least one touchdown in 4-of-6 games played while getting over the century mark just once. Williams may not play in this game though, with off-field problems regarding an alleged drug-deal robbery and a domestic battery case. If Williams doesn't play, the 'Noles will lean more heavily on freshman HB Dalvin Cook (270 rush yards, 3 TD) who has also done well recently with a 122-yard effort (5.3 YPC) and a touchdown against Syracuse two games ago. WR Rashad Greene (791 rec yards, 4 TD) has been dominant in the receiving game with 6+ receptions in five of seven games while averaging 15.2 yards per catch. WR Jesus Wilson (307 rec yards) also has been big in the red zone with 4 TD of his own. Their defense has looked pretty good while giving up 21.6 PPG to their opponents and allowing 146.6 YPG on the ground. The big performances on this side of the ball have come from LB Terrance Smith (60 tackles, 1 sack) and DB Jalen Ramsey (47 tackles, 1 INT, 5 TFL).

Louisville’s offense has been below average this year, tallying 225.8 YPG in the air (72nd in nation) and 144.6 YPG on the ground (90th in FBS) and scoring 30.9 PPG (58th in nation). QB Will Gardner (1,151 pass yards, 11 TD, 2 INT) has missed two games this season and has both his interceptions in one contest. He has multiple passing touchdowns in five of six games while hitting on just 57.3% of his passes for 7.0 YPA. The run game is split between HBs Brandon Radcliff (389 rush yards, 6 TD) and Dominique Brown (374 rush yards, 4 TD) while HB Michael Dyer (238 rush yards, 1 TD) was the go-to guy in the most recent game as he had 173 yards on 24 attempts (7.2 YPC) with a score against NC State. WR James Quick (451 rec yards, 3 TDs) is probable for this game and has two performances with more than 100 yards on the year while WR Eli Rogers (316 rec yards, 2 TD) has been effective as the slot receiver with a score in each of the past two games. LB Lorenzo Mauldin (35 tackles, 6 sacks) and DL Sheldon Rankins (29 tackles, 5 sacks) have given opposing offenses plenty of headaches as their defense as a whole ranks fourth in the nation in scoring defense with 14.6 PPG allowed.


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