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Saints, Panthers play in NFC South clash Thursday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 10/30/2014  at  5:59:00 AM
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NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (3-4)
at CAROLINA PANTHERS (3-4-1)

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Line: New Orleans -2.5, Total: 48

Both the Saints and Panthers look to get back to the .500 mark when the two square off in Charlotte on Thursday night.

New Orleans hosted Green Bay Sunday night and came away with a huge 44-23 victory behind 311 yards and three touchdowns from QB Drew Brees. Carolina QB Cam Newton was wildly inefficient in Week 8, finishing with 171 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT. He was unable to produce a touchdown scoring drive for his team, losing 13-9 at home against the Seahawks. The Panthers are 3-1 (SU and ATS) over the past two seasons in this series, including 2-0 (SU and ATS) when hosting the Saints during that time. Since 1992, New Orleans is 10-3 ATS when facing a defense that is allowing more than 375 yards per game during the second half of the season. The Panthers, however, are 8-2 ATS versus teams that allow 24 or more points per game on the year over the past three seasons. They are also 9-3 ATS when facing a team with a losing record in that span. RB Pierre Thomas (ribs) is out for New Orleans while teammate RB Khiry Robinson (arm) is questionable. Carolina's main injury concerns are on the defensive side of the ball with S Thomas DeCoud (hamstring), LB Chase Blackburn (knee) and CB Bene Benwikere (ankle) all questionable for Thursday night.

Can the Saints pick up a key road victory on Thursday? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. The experts have remained hot over the past six weeks, combining for a 57% ATS mark (54-40). StatFox Scott is 71% ATS (17-7) in Best Bets during this timeframe, and 63% ATS (20-12) on the season. StatFox Dave is 62% ATS (16-10) in Best Bets during these six weeks to improve to 56% ATS (20-16) on the season, while StatFox Brian has gone 59% ATS (13-9) in NFL Best Bets since Week 3, and continues to roll in NFL Totals with a stellar 71% record (17-7) for the season.

The Saints picked up a victory in a must-win home meeting with the Packers last week, and a lot of that had to do with the play of QB Drew Brees (2,227 pass yards, 14 TD, 7 INT). Brees was 27-of-32 in the game with a passer rating of 138.4. He was not going to let the Saints miss the playoffs that easily. Another player who really stepped up in that win was RB Mark Ingram (331 rush yards, 4 TD), who rushed 24 times for 172 yards and a touchdown versus Green Bay. He’ll now face a Carolina defense that is allowing 135.3 rushing yards per game (28th in NFL). He should be in for yet another big game as long as he continues put his head down and run with power. TE Jimmy Graham (39 rec, 435 yards, 4 TD) caught five passes for 59 yards and a touchdown in the win. He looked a lot better than he did in the loss to Detroit, where he was severely limited with a shoulder injury. WR Brandin Cooks (40 rec, 372 yards, 2 TD) caught six passes for 94 yards and a touchdown. The rookie is inconsistent, but really adds another element to this team’s offense when he is on his game. This defense has been good against the run this year, allowing just 101.1 YPG (10th in NFL). That could, however, just be because of their struggles against the pass. New Orleans is surrendering 289.3 yards per game through the air (31st in NFL) and will need to tighten up its coverage against Cam Newton and the Panthers.

Carolina looked horrible at home against the Seahawks last week and a lot of that blame will fall on the shoulders of QB Cam Newton (1,643 pass yards, 8 TD, 4 INT). The franchise quarterback was just 12-of-22 in that game with a passer rating of 61.0. He will have a golden opportunity to turn things around this week against a miserable New Orleans passing defense. The only players who showed up in the loss to Seattle were RB Jonathan Stewart (217 rush yards, 1 TD) and WR Kelvin Benjamin (38 rec, 571 yards, 5 TD). Stewart rushed 16 times for 79 yards, and also caught three passes for 15 yards, while Benjamin hauled in four of his seven targets for a total of 94 yards. They should both have a lot more room to run when facing the Saints compared to the Seahawks. The Panthers’ defense, however, showed up against Seattle in that game. They held the Seahawks to just 310 total yards and were able to cause two turnovers. This unit has allowed 243.3 passing yards per game (18th in NFL) and 135.3 rushing yards per game (28th in NFL). They’ll be hoping that their performance against Seattle was more of a sign of things to come.


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