StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

No. 4 Auburn visits No. 7 Ole Miss Saturday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 11/1/2014  at  5:52:00 AM
  Print This Article    

AUBURN TIGERS (6-1)
at OLE MISS REBELS (7-1)

Kickoff: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: Ole Miss -1.5, Total: 51

In another huge SEC matchup with playoff implications, No. 4 Auburn heads to Oxford on Saturday to take on No. 7 Ole Miss.

It’s been another big year for SEC teams, and it has been no different for the Tigers, as they have been putting up some gaudy offensive numbers despite going a mere 3-4 ATS. They have faced three ranked opponents thus far and were victors against both Kansas State (20-14) and LSU (41-7) while taking a 38-23 loss against No. 1 Mississippi State as three-point favorites in their lone defeat. Last week, they played in a barnburner with South Carolina and narrowly avoided a big upset as an 18-point favorite. Auburn secured a 42-35 victory thanks to three interceptions while the offense ran for an amazing 395 yards on 8.4 YPC. Ole Miss has surprised many with its success this season, defeating its first seven opponents both SU and ATS while having an average margin of victory of 24.9 PPG. The Rebels' flawless season ended last week though, as they fell at LSU by a score of 10-7. Despite the low score, these two teams actually combined for some big yardage (719 total yards). While the Rebels forced four turnovers in Baton Rouge, they were unable to convert when it mattered, as QB Bo Wallace threw a pass that was picked off at the 1-yard line with just nine seconds left on the clock. The home team has won SU in six of the past seven meetings between these programs while being 5-2 ATS. Auburn is 5-2 SU in that time and was able to pull out a solid 30-22 victory as a two-point underdog last season. The Tigers dominated in the rushing game with 282 yards (5.9 YPC) as they held off a big passing attack (340 yards) behind the arm of Wallace in the contest. Some trends that bettors should know include that Auburn is a solid 10-1 ATS when coming off one or more straight Overs in the past two seasons while Ole Miss is 6-0 ATS when playing on turf this year. On the injury front, the Tigers have no significant players missing from their lineup, but the Rebels defense could be thin with DB Cody Prewitt (undisclosed) and DL Robert Nkemdiche (undisclosed) listed as questionable while LB Denzel Nkemdiche (ankle) is out for the year.

Which SEC team will suffer its second loss of the season? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season. StatFox Gary is heating up with a 67% ATS mark (6-3) in Best Bets over the past three weeks.

Auburn has been one of the most explosive offensive teams in the nation all season long, scoring the 15th-most points (39.3 PPG) behind an amazing ground game (281 rush YPG) which ranks 10th in the nation. QB Nick Marshall (1,103 pass yards, 11 TD, 3 INT) has done well with ball control while throwing the pigskin more than 19 times in just three of his seven games. The real threat comes from his legs, as he has gone for 581 yards (6.8 YPC) and seven touchdowns on the ground while getting over the century mark four different times. He is not the only threat in this big running offense as HB Cameron Artis-Payne (831 rush yards, 6 TD) has had at least 20 carries in 5-of-7 games while cracking 100 yards five times. He also has eight catches for 99 yards. The big target through the air is WR D’haquille Williams (527 rec yards, 5 TD) who is the only wideout on the team with more than 15 receptions (34) and has averaged a solid 15.5 yards per catch while having three big performances of 100 yards or more. Their defense also ranks fairly high (25th in nation) while allowing 20.7 PPG, but has given up a robust 36.5 PPG to their past two SEC opponents. DB Jonathan Ford (48 tackles, 2 INT) and LB Cassanova McKinzy (46 tackles, 6.5 TFL) hope they can improve their scoring defense on Saturday afternoon.

Ole Miss plays a much different offensive game than its opponent, as it does most of its work through the air (268.8 YPG, 37th in FBS) while still being solid in the run game (149.5 YPG, 83rd in nation) and has scored 31.9 PPG (50th in FBS). QB Bo Wallace (2,075 pass yards, 18 Ts, 7 INT) has been the key component on this side of the ball and had gone three consecutive games without throwing a pick before his late interception at LSU. He has also had at least 11 rushing attempts in each of the past four games while averaging 38.8 YPG running in that time with two scores. Joining him in the backfield will be HB Jaylen Walton (376 rush yards, 4 TD) who has not run the ball more than 12 times or for more than 90 yards in any one game this season, but has averaged 5.3 YPC plus 13 catches for 160 yards and 2 TD. WR Laquon Treadwell (529 rec yards, 4 TD) leads the team with 38 receptions while both 6-foot-1 WR Vince Sanders (431 rec yards, 4 TD) and 6-foot-3 WR Cody Core (390 rec yards, 5 TD) are big red-zone targets. The defense for the Rebels ranks as the best in the conference while allowing just 10.5 PPG to their opponents behind the strong play of DB Senquez Golson (23 tackles, 8 INT), DB Tony Connor (47 tackles, 1 INT, 5.5 TFL) and DE Marquis Haynes (20 tackles, 6.5 sacks).


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: