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Manning and Brady meet again on Sunday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 11/2/2014  at  5:25:00 AM
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DENVER BRONCOS (6-1)
at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (6-2)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Line: Denver -3, Total: 54.5

Two of the hottest teams in the NFL square off Sunday when the Broncos head to Foxboro for a showdown with the Patriots.

Both teams won their fourth straight game last week, as Denver QB Peyton Manning threw for 286 yards with 3 TD in a 35-21 home win-and-cover over the Chargers, while New England QB Tom Brady threw for 354 yards and 5 TD in a 51-23 blowout over the Bears. These teams last met in the AFC Championship on Jan. 19, when the Broncos won 26-16 at home as five-point favorites. Manning threw for 400 yards in that game with two touchdowns and no picks, but he is still just 5-10 SU all-time in head-to-head meetings with Brady. The Pats are 2-0 SU and ATS when hosting Denver over the past three seasons, but in this same timeframe, the Broncos are 13-3 ATS in the second half of the season and 25-11 ATS as a favorite. Meanwhile, New England is 8-1 ATS at home where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the past three years. They’re also up against a Denver team that is 0-7 ATS after four straight double-digit wins since 1992. RB Montee Ball (groin) could return for Denver in this one, while the Patriots have no new major injuries since losing DE Chandler Jones (hip) indefinitely two weeks ago.

Which future Hall of Fame quarterback will extend his team's win streak? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. The experts have remained hot over the past six weeks, combining for a 57% ATS mark (54-40). StatFox Scott is 71% ATS (17-7) in Best Bets during this timeframe, and 63% ATS (20-12) on the season. StatFox Dave is 62% ATS (16-10) in Best Bets during these six weeks to improve to 56% ATS (20-16) on the season, while StatFox Brian has gone 59% ATS (13-9) in NFL Best Bets since Week 3, and continues to roll in NFL Totals with a stellar 71% record (17-7) for the season.

The Broncos have won four straight games due in large part to QB Peyton Manning (2,134 pass yards, 22 TD, 3 INT) throwing for 330 YPG and 14 touchdowns. But he now faces the Patriots, a team he’s struggled with in his career. Manning is 0-3 SU in his past three trips to New England, throwing for 297.0 yards per game with 9 TD and 4 INT. He’ll need to be more careful when throwing the ball in CB Darrelle Revis’ (2 INT) direction. RB Ronnie Hillman (349 rush yards, 2 TD) will need to be ready to play in this game. Hillman has been excellent in place of the injured Montee Ball, but pass protection will be a key factor in determining who wins this game. He must protect Manning at all costs when his coaches ask him to do so. WRs Demaryius Thomas (47 rec, 767 yards, 6 TD) and Emmanuel Sanders (47 rec, 634 yards, 4 TD) will look to keep up their excellent play this week. Sanders is coming off of a 120-yard, 3-TD performance against the Chargers. One reason the Broncos have been so much better this season is their defense. Denver is allowing just 242.9 passing yards per game (17th in NFL), which is good for a team that is involved in as many shootouts as they are. They are also allowing an NFL-low 72.4 rushing yards per game, and have a +5 turnover margin in the past three games.

The Patriots offense has been rolling during their four-game win streak with 39.5 PPG and 428 total YPG. QB Tom Brady (2,059 yards, 18 TD, 2 INT) has played incredible football during the win streak with 317 passing YPG and 14 TD tosses. He has also dominated this Broncos team at home over the past five years, throwing for 310.0 yards per game with 10 total touchdowns and just one interception. A big part of Brady’s outstanding play during October is TE Rob Gronkowski (40 rec, 557 yards, 7 TD) returning to form. He finally looks as healthy as ever and caught nine passes for 149 yards and three touchdowns in the Patriots’ blowout win over the Bears last week. He should have success working the middle against this Broncos secondary. WR Brandon LaFell (30 rec, 461 yards, 4 TD) has been Brady’s second favorite target, catching 11 passes for 124 yards and a touchdown against Chicago. His size and speed is everything Brady wants in an outside receiver, so it will be interesting to see if he can keep it up. This Patriots defense will have its work cut out for them against the Broncos. They’re allowing just 210.9 passing yards per game (2nd in NFL), but Peyton Manning’s offense is a whole different animal. This is a big opportunity for CB Darrelle Revis to show the world that he’s still the game’s premier shutdown corner.


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