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No. 3 Auburn favored big over Texas A&M Saturday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 11/8/2014  at  5:21:00 AM
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TEXAS A&M AGGIES (6-3)
at AUBURN TIGERS (7-1)

Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Auburn -21.5, Total: 68

No. 3 Auburn hosts slumping Texas A&M on Saturday afternoon as it looks to stay in the new playoff picture.

The Aggies looked to be a force at the start of the season with SU victories in each of their first five games (3-2 ATS) in which they had solid wins against both South Carolina (52-28) as nine-point underdogs and Arkansas (35-28) as 8.5-point favorites. Since that time, they have gone 1-3 SU (0-4 ATS) while losing their three SEC games by an average of 30.3 PPG, including being shut out 59-0 by Alabama a few weeks ago while getting 11.5 points. The team got more bad news as QB Kenny Hill was suspended for two games and the effects were immediate as they narrowly avoided losing as 32-point favorites against Louisiana-Monroe last week. They did end up getting the win by a score of 21-16 while they turned the ball over twice and were outgained 347-243 by the 3-5 Warhawks. As Texas A&M spirals out of control, the Tigers (4-4 ATS) have jumped into the playoff equation with big victories over Kansas State, LSU, South Carolina and Ole Miss this season. Auburn's victory over the Rebels last week was huge, as it won 35-31 as a one-point underdog with the teams combining for 989 yards of total offense. The Tigers ran for 248 yards (5.4 YPC) and three scores in the victory. The past two meetings have been high-scoring with the average total being 85 while Auburn came away with a 45-21 win on the road last season as a 12.5-point underdog. In that game there was 1,217 yards of offense between the two teams while the Tigers overcame a 24-17 halftime deficit behind 379 yards on the ground (6.3 YPC). Trends show that Auburn is 0-2 ATS this season after playing its previous game on the road while being an impressive 11-1 ATS after one or more straight Overs in the past two years. QB Kenny Hill (suspension) will be missing this game for the Aggies while star DB Deshazor Everett (elbow) is doubtful. Auburn is not dealing with any significant injuries with RB Roc Thomas (ankle) upgraded to probable.

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Texas A&M has scored 36.4 PPG this season (20th in nation) and has done well through the air (335.4 YPG, 7th in FBS), but will be without its starting quarterback for this one while it leans more on the rushing attack which has averaged 150.0 YPG (81st in FBS). Freshman QB Kyle Allen (370 pass yards, 4 TD, 3 INT) will get the start for this contest. He was one of the top recruits in the nation before deciding to come to College Station, but struggled in his start last week against the Warhawks as he went 13-for-28 (46%) with 106 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. He will need plenty of support from HBs Tra Carson (326 rush yards, 5 TD), Trey Williams (313 rush yards, 3 TD) and Brandon Williams (280 rush yards, 3 TD) who have collectively averaged 5.0 YPC. Six different receivers on the team have more than 25 receptions with WR Josh Reynolds (533 rec yards, 8 TD) leading the team in yards and scores while WRs Speedy Noil (461 rec yards, 4 TD), Malcome Kennedy (386 rec yards, 2 TD) and Ricky Seals-Jones (377 rec yards, 3 TD) all have more than 35 catches. The defense for the program has not been impressive while allowing their opposition to score 25.9 PPG (65th in nation), as DB Howard Matthews (52 tackles, 2.5 TFL) will need to step up his performance to make this one competitive.

Auburn has been one of the elite offenses in the nation this season while scoring the 14th-most points (38.8 PPG) behind a great rushing attack (276.9 YPG, 9th in FBS) and average passing (220.6 YPG, 75th in nation). QB Nick Marshall (1,357 pass yards, 13 TD, 4 INT) has been the key to the big offensive output as he has gone over 200 yards passing in four of his past six games while also gaining 631 yards (6.6 YPC) with nine touchdowns on the ground. He has thrown multiple TD passes in five of his past six games, and has double-digit rushing attempts in each of his past seven performances while running for at least 100 yards four times this year. Joining him in the backfield is HB Cameron Artis-Payne (969 rush yards, 7 TD) who has averaged 5.4 YPC and has hit the century mark in 6-of-8 games in 2014. He is a workhorse with at least 20 carries in six of eight contests, but has not had a reception in any of the past three games. WR D’haquille Williams (598 rec yards, 5 TD) has been the top receiver on the year with 18 more catches than any teammate, and has surpassed 100 yards in three separate games this season. Their defense has allowed 22.0 PPG (35th in FBS) on the year behind the play of DBs Johnathan Ford (60 tackles, 2 INT), Jonathan Jones (23 tackles, 5 INT) and LB Cassanova McKinzy (52 tackles, 8 TFL, 1 INT).


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