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No. 2 FSU expected to win big Saturday vs. Virginia
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 11/8/2014  at  5:45:00 AM
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VIRGINIA CAVALIERS (4-5)
at FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (8-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 6:30 p.m. ET
Line: Florida State -20.5, Total: 55.5

No. 2 Florida State looks to continue its second perfect season in a row when it hosts Virginia on Saturday evening.

The Cavaliers started out the season looking like a team that could really keep up with anyone. They covered in each of their first five games including playing well against UCLA with a 28-20 loss as 19-point underdogs, winning 23-21 as four-point underdogs to Louisville and suffered an eight-point defeat (41-33) when they traveled to BYU as 16-point 'dogs. But since then, UVa has fallen off, with failing to cover in each of its past four games (1-3 SU). Last week the Cavaliers headed to 4-point favorite Georgia Tech and were dominated, falling 35-10 while allowing 409 yards of offense. The Seminoles have not suffered an SU loss since Nov. 12, 2012 (24 games) but have not done well for bettors this year, as they are a meager 2-6 ATS. But they have still defeated their opponents by an average of 15.6 PPG while being at least double-digit favorites in all but the most recent two contests. FSU was able to cover against Louisville in its most recent game last Thursday as a 3.5-point favorite on the road. Despite falling behind 21-0 early on, the team secured a 42-31 victory behind 401 passing yards. These programs have not faced each other since 2011 when Virginia pulled of a big upset, winning 14-13 on the road as a 17-point underdog while totaling just 316 yards of offense. Interestingly enough, these two teams have played some low-scoring games, and the total has gone Under 8-of-10 times since 1992. Bettors should know that the Seminoles are an impressive 11-1 ATS in home games after seven consecutive SU wins since 1992, but are also a poor 3-9 ATS (25%) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 in the past three seasons. The Cavaliers have lost some of their receiving depth with WR Miles Gooch (knee) out for the season and WR Andre Levrone (shoulder) listed as questionable. For Florida State, QB Jameis Winston (ankle) is probable, while HB Mario Pender (ankle) is questionable.

Can Virginia keep the score relatively close against the unbeaten Seminoles? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season. StatFox Gary is heating up with a 67% ATS mark (8-4) in Best Bets over the past four weeks.

Virginia has not looked horrible on offense thanks to a good balance between the passing game (243.9 YPG) and rushing attack (153.7 YPG), as the school is putting up a mere 26.7 PPG. QB Greyson Lambert (1,055 pass yards, 5 TD, 8 INT) has struggled over his past two games with four interceptions while connecting on less than 60% of his passes in each of those contests. He has been expected to throw more, and after attempting just 24.3 passes per game in his first four contests, he has thrown the ball an average of 36 times in the past two games. HB Kevin Parks (626 rush yards, 4 TD) has averaged a low 4.2 YPC on the year while going over the century mark once. He has been able to contribute to the passing game as well with 24 catches for 139 yards (5.8 avg) while tallying two scores. WRs Darius Jennings (421 rec yards, 1 TD) and Canaan Severin (385 rec yards, 3 TD) will need to play at a higher level with the injuries to Gooch and Levrone, who have combined to catch 35 balls for 575 yards (16.4 avg) and 2 TD. The defense has allowed the opposition to score 24.2 PPG on the year (51st in FBS) but has surrendered 27.7 PPG over a current three-game skid. DBs Quin Blanding (89 tackles, 2 INT) and Anthony Harris (81 tackles, 2 INT) will have the tough task of defending against former Heisman winner QB Jameis Winston in this one.

Florida State does most of its damage through the air at 327.3 passing YPG (9th in nation) and doing little on the ground (131.8 YPG) with 38.4 PPG (15th in FBS). QB Jameis Winston (2,279 pass yards, 16 TD, 9 INT) has not had quite as prolific of a season as last year (4,057 pass yards, 40 TD, 10 INT), but he has topped 300 yards in 4-of-7 games while throwing eight touchdowns in his past three contests. He did struggle against Louisville last week with three picks and completed a season-low 52.1% of his passes while actually having his most yards on the year (401) in the comeback victory. HB Karlos Williams (450 rush yards, 7 TD) has gone over 100 yards just once this year as the school focuses more on passing, which he has also contributed to with 143 yards on 15 catches (9.5 avg) while having at least one catch in every game played. HB Dalvin Cook (380 rush yards, 5 TD) has also done well as the change-of-pace back while averaging 5.6 YPC as a freshman and eclipsing the century mark twice in the past three contests. WR Rashad Greene (853 rec yards, 4 TD) has been Winston’s go-to guy over the past two years and has six or more receptions in 6-of-8 games in 2014 while WRs Nick O’Leary (364 rec yards, 2 TD) and Jesus Wilson (356 rec yards, 4 TD) have been nice safety blankets. LBs Reggie Northrup (67 tackles, 1 INT, 1 sack) and Terrance Smith (60 tackles, 4 TFL) have helped lead the defense, which is allowing 22.8 PPG (42nd in nation) for the season.


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