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49ers try to avoid 3rd straight loss Sunday at Saints
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 11/9/2014  at  5:20:00 AM
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SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (4-4)
at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (4-4)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: New Orleans -5, Total: 49

A pair of underachieving teams sitting at .500 will collide on Sunday as the slumping 49ers visit the surging Saints.

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook betting preview for this matchup:

San Francisco's offense has gone south during a two-game losing skid with a mere 27 points, including a brutal 13-10 home loss to the 10-point underdog Rams. The Saints, meanwhile, beat the Panthers 28-10 in Carolina last Thursday for their second straight SU win and third consecutive ATS victory. Last season, the Saints edged the 49ers 23-20 as 3.5-point home favorites. QB Drew Brees threw for 305 yards with a touchdown and one interception in that game, while losing QB Colin Kaepernick threw for two touchdowns, but just 127 yards in the game. Three turnovers for New Orleans is what kept the game so close as it held the ball for 34:39 and outgained San Francisco by a 387-196 margin. The Saints are 5-1 SU (3-3 ATS) when playing the 49ers at home in the past six meetings. Three of the past four meetings have finished Under the total. Over the past two years, the 49ers are 6-0 ATS after having lost two of their past three games. They are 9-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of their previous three contests over the past three years as well. New Orleans, meanwhile, is 9-2 ATS as a home favorite over the past two seasons. Both teams have long injury reports for this contest, with San Francisco potentially thin on defense with LB Patrick Willis (toe), CB Tramaine Brock (toe) and LB Dan Skuta (ankle) all questionable, as is offensive teammate WR Brandon Lloyd (hamstring). For New Orleans, RBs Pierre Thomas (ribs) and RB Khiry Robinson (forearm) are out, while FB Austin Johnson (knee) and LB David Hawthorne (hand) are both considered questionable to play on Sunday.

Which team will fall below .500 after Sunday's clash? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. The experts have remained hot over the past seven weeks, combining for a 57% ATS mark (62-46). StatFox Scott is 71% ATS (20-8) in Best Bets during this timeframe, and 64% ATS (23-13) on the season. StatFox Dave is 60% ATS (18-12) in Best Bets during these seven weeks to improve to 55% ATS (22-18) on the season, while StatFox Brian has gone 56% ATS (14-11) in NFL Best Bets since Week 3, and continues to roll in NFL Totals with a stellar 70% record (19-8) for the season.

The 49ers fell just short of picking up a victory over the Rams last week when QB Colin Kaepernick (1,956 pass yards, 12 TD, 5 INT) fumbled at the St. Louis 1-yard line on the game's final play. He completed 22-of-33 passes in that defeat for 237 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. His team was, however, just 3-of-12 on third downs. He’ll need to find a way to get his offense to sustain more drives, or this team will be in serious danger of missing out on the playoffs. One thing the Niners would be wise to do is feed RB Frank Gore (472 rush yards, 1 TD) the ball more often. Gore has gotten just 23 carries over the past two games and his team is not giving him a chance to find any sort of rhythm on the field. This is the same guy who rattled off back-to-back, 100-yard games in Weeks 4 and 5. Defensively this team remains a nightmare to go up against, as the club is allowing just 206.3 passing yards per game (3rd in NFL) and 85.6 rushing yards per game (5th in NFL). San Francisco has allowed 17 points or less in three of its past four games, with the exception being a 42-point performance by the potent Denver offense. The 49ers should be able to slow down Drew Brees and this Saints offense, which hasn’t looked the same as it has in years past.

New Orleans has climbed its way to the top of the subpar NFC South division after going 3-1 (SU and ATS) in the past four games. This offense has started to round into form, averaging 33.0 PPG during these past four contests. One player who has really stepped up his game is RB Mark Ingram (431 rush yards, 6 TD), who has now rushed for six touchdowns in just five games this season. He has run for 100 or more yards in back-to-back games and is really opening up the field for the Saints’ pass-catchers to make plays over the middle. One thing that could hold this team back is QB Drew Brees (2,524 pass yards, 15 TD, 8 INT) not taking care of the football. Brees has thrown five interceptions over the past four weeks and this San Francisco secondary will be aggressive in trying to cause turnovers. In his past two games at home against the 49ers, Brees has thrown for 286.0 yards per game with just four touchdowns and three picks. Those are not the type of numbers you’d expect out of an elite quarterback on his home field, so it’s important that he avoids yet another bad outing in a game his team really needs to win. The Saints have, however, looked much better defensively in recent weeks. They forced Aaron Rodgers into throwing two interceptions two games ago and then held Cam Newton and the Panthers to just 10 points in a 28-10 victory last Thursday night. This team will play with tons of energy as they look to get back over the .500 mark.


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