StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

Packers look to add to Bears misery Sunday night
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 11/9/2014  at  5:43:00 AM
  Print This Article    

CHICAGO BEARS (3-5)
at GREEN BAY PACKERS (5-3)

Kickoff: Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line: Green Bay -7, Total: 53.5

The Bears look to pick up a much-needed victory when they head to Lambeau Field Sunday to take on the Packers.

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook betting preview for this matchup:

Both Chicago and Green Bay head into this game after a week of rest thanks to bye weeks. The Packers have dominated the Bears recently, winning 11 of the past 14 games (SU and ATS). Chicago is allowing 32.0 PPG over its past five contests where the club is 1-4 (SU and ATS), and this is not a sign facing QB Aaron Rodgers, who threw for 302 yards and four touchdowns in a 38-17 victory over the Bears in Week 4. That makes Rodgers 11-3 SU all-time in this matchup, where he's thrown for 3,377 yards, 25 TD and 10 INT. The Bears are 44-24 ATS after scoring seven points or less in the first half of two straight games since 1992. They are, however, 1-10 ATS off a non-conference game over the past three seasons and Green Bay is 34-17 ATS in home games after having won five or six out of its previous seven games since 1992. Even with last week's bye, both clubs have a long list of injuries, especially on the defensive side of the ball. CB Kyle Fuller (hip), S Danny McCray (knee), OT Jordan Mills (foot) and LBs Lance Briggs (ribs) and Jon Bostic (back) are all questionable for Chicago. For Green Bay, top CB Sam Shields (knee) and G T.J. Lang (ankle) are both questionable, but S Morgan Burnett (calf) and DE Datone Jones (ankle) are updated to probable.

Can the Bears pick up a rare win at Lambeau Field? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. The experts have remained hot over the past seven weeks, combining for a 57% ATS mark (62-46). StatFox Scott is 71% ATS (20-8) in Best Bets during this timeframe, and 64% ATS (23-13) on the season. StatFox Dave is 60% ATS (18-12) in Best Bets during these seven weeks to improve to 55% ATS (22-18) on the season, while StatFox Brian has gone 56% ATS (14-11) in NFL Best Bets since Week 3, and continues to roll in NFL Totals with a stellar 70% record (19-8) for the season.

The Bears have really struggled recently, losing two straight games before their bye and four of their past five overall. Things definitely won’t get much easier this week, as the team has really struggled in Green Bay in recent years. QB Jay Cutler (2,093 pass yards, 17 TD, 8 INT) is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS when playing at Lambeau Field over the past five years. He’s thrown just two touchdowns with a miserable 10 interceptions in those losses. Cutler must take care of the football and avoid making the high-risk throws that he consistently attempts. If Chicago is going to win this game, it will need to ride RB Matt Forte (562 rush yards, 3 TD). Forte is this team’s most talented player by a wide margin. He’s had more than 100 total yards in every single game since the Bears’ Week 3 meeting with the Jets. Forte is capable of dominating on the ground, especially against a horrendous Green Bay run defense, but he’s also caught 58 passes for 490 yards and three touchdowns through the air. WRs Brandon Marshall (34 rec, 384 yards, 5 TD) and Alshon Jeffery (38 rec, 563 yards, 3 TD) are growing frustrated with Cutler’s erratic play. He needs to make more high-percentage throws and just let his talented wideouts make plays. This defense is coming off a game in which it allowed 51 points to the Patriots, and now allows 27.8 PPG and 6.0 yards per play this year, which both rank fourth-worst in the NFL. If the Bears don’t correct a number of things, they could be in for a similar fate against this potent Packers offense.

Green Bay was demolished 44-23 in New Orleans before its bye week, but the club had looked excellent in four straight wins (SU and ATS) before that contest. QB Aaron Rodgers (2,092 pass yards, 19 TD, 3 INT) threw two picks that game, but still completed 28-of-39 passes (72%) for 418 yards and a touchdown. He should be in for a much better game against a defense that is allowing 262.3 passing yards per game (23rd in NFL) on the season and 39.0 PPG over the past two contests. He’ll be targeting WRs Jordy Nelson (50 rec, 737 yards, 6 TD) and Randall Cobb (40 rec, 578 yards, 9 TD) often in this one, but he’ll also look for explosive No. 3 WR Davante Adams (24 rec, 263 yards, 2 TD). The rookie really emerged as a threat in this passing game with seven catches for 75 yards in the loss to the Saints. RB Eddie Lacy (428 rush yards, 4 TD) rushed 17 times for 48 yards and a touchdown in the Packers’ win over the Bears earlier in the season. Lacy was much more productive with his touches in the two weeks before the bye, averaging 5.3 yards per carry with a touchdown against the Panthers followed by a game where he rushed for 4.5 YPC and caught eight passes for 123 yards in the loss to New Orleans. Despite allowing Drew Brees to throw all over them in the last game, this Green Bay defense is allowing just 225.8 passing yards per game (9th in NFL), and could make life on Jay Cutler extremely difficult. However, the Packers own the league's worst run defense, allowing 153.5 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry (4th-worst in NFL).


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: