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Rivals Bills and Dolphins collide Thursday night
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 11/13/2014  at  5:52:00 AM
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BUFFALO BILLS (5-4)
at MIAMI DOLPHINS (5-4)

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -5, Total: 42

Division rivals clash in a crucial game on Thursday night when the Bills head south to take on the Dolphins.

Both teams saw win streaks end in Week 10, as Buffalo hosted the Chiefs on Sunday and was unable to come away with a third straight victory, falling 17-13 as a 2.5-point favorite. Miami, meanwhile, lost 20-16 in Detroit as a 3-point road underdog, which ended its three-game win streak (SU and ATS). The Dolphins have been dominated by the Bills recently, going 1-4 (SU and ATS) in the past five meetings, including a 29-10 defeat in Buffalo earlier in the season. Last season, the Bills forced three turnovers in a 23-21 victory in Miami as 5.5-point road underdogs. Prior to that meeting, however, the Dolphins were 4-1 (SU and ATS) the previous five times they hosted in this series. Since 1992, the Bills are 42-24 ATS after failing to cover the spread in four or five out of their previous six games, but are just 4-13 ATS after playing a home game over the past three seasons. While Buffalo is pretty healthy with only CB Ron Brooks (groin) and WRs Marcus Easley (knee) and Marquise Goodwin (ribs) on the questionable list, Miami will lost starting LT Branden Albert (knee) for the rest of the season last week, and have five other key players all questionable for Thursday in G Daryn Colledge (back), TE Dion Sims (toe), CB Cortland Finnegan (ankle) and LBs Koa Misi (back) and Kelvin Sheppard (hip).

Which AFC East team will pick up its sixth win of the season on Thursday night? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. The experts have remained hot over the past eight weeks, combining for a 58% ATS mark (72-52). StatFox Scott is 69% ATS (22-10) in Best Bets during this timeframe, and 63% ATS (25-15) on the season. StatFox Dave is 60% ATS (21-14) in Best Bets during these eight weeks to improve to 56% ATS (25-20) on the season, while StatFox Brian has gone 54% ATS (15-13) in NFL Best Bets since Week 3, and continues to roll in NFL Totals with a stellar 70% record (21-9) for the season. StatFox Gary is coming off a perfect 4-0 ATS mark in his Week 10 Best Bets.

The Bills had a great chance to move to 6-3 coming off their bye week, but they were unable to beat the Chiefs and must now win in Miami to put themselves in a better position in the AFC playoff race. QB Kyle Orton (1,387 pass yards, 10 TD, 3 INT) threw for 259 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions in the loss to the Chiefs, but completed only 29-of-48 passes (60%) in the game. Top WR Sammy Watkins (42 rec, 617 yards, 5 TD) had just four catches for 27 yards in the loss. Orton and Watkins will need to get back on track against the Dolphins, who Watkins caught eight passes for 117 yards and a touchdown against in the first meeting in Week 2. Miami, however, allows just 210.8 passing yards per game (2nd in NFL) and has held its past three opponents to 33 points combined. Buffalo’s defense is what will keep this team in the game no matter how the offense plays. The Bills are allowing a mere 224.6 passing yards per game (7th in NFL) and 96.1 rushing yards per game (8th in NFL) thanks to a league-high 34 sacks.

The Dolphins were unable to come away with a victory in Detroit, and now must beat a Bills team that really gave them a beating earlier in the season. QB Ryan Tannehill (2,114 yards, 15 TD, 7 INT) struggled in that game, going just 31-of-49 with 241 yards (4.9 YPA), one touchdown and one interception. That drops him to 1-4 in his career in this matchup where he's completed only 52% of his passes for 788 yards (158 per game), 4.8 YPA, 7 TD and 5 INT. Top WR Mike Wallace (40 rec, 519 yards, 6 TD) was his top target in the Week 2 defeat, hauling in five passes for 56 yards and a touchdown. One guy who will really determine how this team does in the game is RB Lamar Miller (528 yards, 5 TD). Miller got just four carries for 10 yards in the loss to the Lions, as he is dealing with a banged up shoulder and will have to get himself healthy in order to run the way he has been all season (4.8 YPC). The Dolphins will have little chance of winning this game without a successful ground attack. Although the Bills hammered this defense early in the season, Miami has really played well defensively in recent weeks. Despite losing to the Lions, the Dolphins did hold an offense that contains a ton of firepower to just 20 points, marking the fourth straight game where they held opponents to 20 points or less. A big reason for this success has been due to 11 takeaways in these four contests. They should be able to put major pressure on Kyle Orton on Thursday.


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