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No. 1 Mississippi St. visits No. 4 Alabama Saturday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 11/15/2014  at  5:21:00 AM
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MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS (9-0)
at ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (8-1)

Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Alabama -8, Total: 52

Top-ranked Mississippi State looks to keep its flawless season going in a tough road matchup against No. 4 Alabama on Saturday afternoon.

The Bulldogs have won each of their nine games this season SU by an average of 20.1 PPG, but are a pedestrian 5-4 ATS. While they have had some easier games on the schedule, they have also had to face some of the tougher SEC programs on their way to a perfect record and over three straight contests defeated LSU, Texas A&M and Auburn who were all ranked in the top-8 when the meeting occurred. Last week, MSU had a breeze of a game versus UT-Martin with a 45-16 victory as a 44-point favorite. The Bulldogs dropped 520 yards of offense on the helpless Skyhawks while averaging 7.9 YPC on the ground 9.9 yards per pass attempt. The Crimson Tide are once again unsurprisingly one of the top programs in the nation with their one SU loss on the year coming on the road against a tough Ole Miss team. They have won four straight games (2-2 ATS) since that setback, including a 59-0 romp versus Texas A&M, but are a mere 3-5-1 ATS on the season. Last week Alabama went into Baton Rouge and beat a great Tigers team by a score of 20-13 in overtime while barely covering the 6.5-points it was giving. It took a field goal in the final seconds of regulation to push the game into OT as the two schools combined for just 574 yards of offense while each had a turnover. The Tide have owned this matchup at 16-6 SU since 1992, but MSU holds the 14-8 ATS advantage during this timeframe. But recently it has been all Alabama, which has prevailed in each of the past six seasons (4-2 ATS) by an average of 22.3 PPG. Last season the Crimson Tide failed to cover the 22.5-point spread in a 20-7 defeat because they turned the ball over four times, but held the Bulldogs offense to a meager 197 yards of offense. Trends show that Alabama is a poor 23-41 ATS (36%) in home game off one or more consecutive Unders since 1992 while also being 6-0 ATS in home games against conference opponents in the past two seasons. Much of Mississippi State's success has spurred from its team staying healthy as they have no omissions from their lineup due to injury. HB T.J. Yeldon (knee) and OL Alphonse Taylor (concussion) are both questionable for Alabama in this big SEC matchup.

Which team will win this SEC showdown on Saturday? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season.

Mississippi State has surprised many with its stellar play, and it starts with an offense that has gained 267.2 YPG in the air and 254.9 YPG on the ground (16th in FBS); leading to the 12th-most points in the nation (39.8 PPG). QB Dak Prescott (2,231 pass yards, 18 TD, 7 INT) has been mentioned in Heisman talks as he has thrown at least one touchdown in each game this year while getting between 200 and 300 yards in 8-of-9 contests. He can really mess with opposing defenses with his ability to run the ball and has rumbled for 779 yards on 143 attempts (5.4 YPC) and 11 TD while having at least 13 carries in seven games this year. Prescott is joined in the backfield with an even more talented runner as HB Josh Robinson (984 rush yards, 11 TD) has averaged 6.7 YPC this season with 100+ rushing yards on four different occasions. He’s a threat to catch passes too, as he has amassed 278 yards on 19 grabs this season (14.9 avg). The team has really spread the ball around in the air attack, as eight different receivers have between 10 and 22 catches. WR De’Runnya Wilson (367 rec yards, 6 TD) leads the charge while failing to catch a ball in his last game. The defense has looked solid for this team, as it has allowed only 19.7 PPG (16th in nation) behind the solid play of LB Benardrick McKinney (55 tackles, 3 sacks) and DL Preston Smith (32 tackles, 7 sacks, 2 INT, 1 TD). The secondary hasn't been great though, as MSU allows 301 passing YPG, including 343 passing YPG in road games. The Bulldogs also need to force more turnovers with just two takeaways in the past three contests combined.

As usual, the Crimson Tide’s offense can hurt their opponents in multiple ways while gaining 281.2 YPG passing (29th in nation), 206.1 YPG rushing (36th in FBS) and scoring 34.7 PPG (34th in nation). QB Blake Sims (2,243 pass yards, 17 TD, 3 INT) has thrown multiple touchdowns in 7-of-9 games, but has surpassed the 300-yard mark just once. Last week against LSU he had his most attempts (45) but recorded a meager 209 passing yards (4.6 YPA) as he completed only 44% of his passes. HB T.J. Yeldon (686 rush yards, 5 TD) is questionable for this contest after spraining his ankle and the team has a solid backup in HB Derrick Henry (554 rush yards, 4 TD) who has averaged 5.0 YPC and already has two 100-yard games this season. WR Amari Cooper (1,215 rec yards, 10 TD) has the second most receiving yards in the nation and is one of eight receivers with double-digit scores. He’s averaged 15.4 yards per catch and has had at least eight receptions in all but one of his games on the year. Alabama’s defense has been amazing as it has allowed the nation's second-fewest points (13.9 PPG) this year while holding the opposition to 13 or fewer points in three of the previous four games. The stars on this side of the ball include DL Xzavier Dickson (27 tackles, 7 sacks) and DB Landon Collins (60 tackles, 2 INTs) as they face a tough test this Saturday.


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